Posted on 03/15/2012 4:44:42 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Newt Gingrich seems to be making decent sense, in terms of apparent logic, in saying that by staying in the race he can help rack up enough delegates to keep Mitt Romney from winning on the first ballot at the GOP national convention. Sometimes, though, that which seems to make sense does not actually work in practice. Nomination arithmetic is different from normal arithmetic. And no, I am not talking about how he alters the "impressions game" by splitting the conservative vote and thus either handing pluralities to Romney or narrowing the margins of victory for Santorum. That is a very good argument, but that's not at issue here. What I'm talking about here is exactly the sort of "delegate math" to which Gingrich claims to be appealing.
[SNIP]
(Granted, the risk is that if Romney comes out ahead in a certain state, this math would work in reverse, in his favor -- but since he's already ahead anyway, the only way to stop him is to at least have the chance to make up the gap in larger chunks.)
In short, for all those states with rules like Alabama's, a Gingrich candidacy enables Romney to move inexorably closer to a first-ballot nomination victory. Only a Gingrich withdrawal can stop that march.
Now this is not to say whether Romney ought to be stopped or not. This is just to say that if Gingrich's goal is stopping Romney, Gingrich's continuation in the race is directly counterproductive.
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...
TO INFINITY AND BEYOND!
~ Buzz Lightyear
Our country's charter, that ideal expressed in our Declaration of Independence and all of our Founding documents, is being stolen from us. It's happening right now, "right before our very eyes" and yet hidden in plain sight by a motivated unwillingness to say or do anything.
Every time Newt (or anyone else) shows an audience an example and then builds on it, he's in the news and has the WH dancing to it.
Otherwise, the only thing I see in the media from Newt is him telling reporters his strategy for staying in the race. Who cares? Not your average potential voter. So he's shut down and shut out.
I'm one of those potential voters and I, for the first time in my life, am truly scared of where we are definitely headed. And I'm not alone.
It's much of core Ron Paul support and it's why Newt gets the response he does when he talks about things everyone is thinking about, but no one of importance is willing to say.
We are going to get neither charm nor charisma from Romney, are we? The LDS “chosen one” has spent tens (if not hundreds) of millions over 6 years, and proves you can’t buy a personality. Or sway more than 30% of the GOP vote
So if you think charisma is the game changer, then we are toast with Romney.
Now, if the lamestream MEdia can paint Catholic Santorum as a talibani, just wait until they start on “exposing” the LDS religious beliefs. They are holding back for now.
Add in the salivating left just waiting to turn “middle class” anger against Wall Street and TARP against Romney and the striped pants set. People are so stupid and blind angry about the economy they will see Richie Rich stiff Romney as the problem, not the solution. Plus Romney has no military experience (Mass Nat’l Guard? Give me a break) and we will almost certainly have some type of crisis to make obama look presidential
obama will sleep well if Romney is nominated.
On polls showing the vote- take with a grain of salt. I think a lot of people still feel too guilty to admit they screwed up and won’t re-vote for barry, but this time they won’t vote for him or they won’t vote at all. Its the fraud vote that matters this time
” Newt is the Ross Perot of this election. “ -—
The Perot sceanario played out alright just as you say—back in the dark ages, when we were all civilized but stupid. However, it is like yesterday when all that happened and we have learned too much since then to sit on the sofa and belch out the same old air balls of “aint it awful”.
If we draw our political pistol this time we have to be prepared to use the dang thing.
This is to say that we are on our way to a political resistance “movement” this time, and it includes in our sites, the GOP-Establishment.
This divisiveness has, by the grace of God, formed a kind of solidarity among conservatives who are for different candidates with different approaches and agendas, but together we are still a force that is starting to flex its limbs to oust a Marxist and the toothless RINO Establishment who refuse month after month, year after year to resist his dismantling of our nation.
We are not going to comply and cooperate like puppets on the string’s end.
If you want to stay dutifully “in line”, to guard the old process and swallow the same old bait, spew the same tired thesis, and fall into the same old circular pattern of avoiding a solution, then you are part of the problem.
Let’s instead see if we can approach the Alamo line in the sand, so to speak, and dare to make a damn stand against the GOP-E together, and do our math.
If we can’t whip them, how in the &@!! do we intend to whip the Marxists?
We may not finish the job this cycle, but we have a chance to, and at least we shall have dared to muster.
My friend you mistake me for someone who supports Romney. I could not vote for that person under any circumstance. I could see myself voting for Rick Santorum, but it would not help. He still loses by 10 points to Obama. I am telling you he has zero cross over appeal. And yes, he will need it. Unlike Reagan he can not make his message work. It is not his stand on the issues or the message itself, he just is a poor communicator when it comes to helping those who are not naturally drawn to him understand why he is important. It is something you have or you don’t have. He ain’t got it.
I would not be happy if I lived in Virginia and had to choose between Romney and Paul and I would not be happy if I had to choose between RS and Romney..I want the priveledge of voting for Newt.
LOL, going to be tough, that one.
Speaking as a Newtorum supporter, I think Newt is right and would like him to stay in. He’s correct to observe that not every Newt vote will go to Rick.
Something’s fuzzy here alright
You said “Sanctimonious should take one for the conservative team and drop out”
Isn’t that calling to “disenfranchise” those of us who want to vote for “Sanctimonious”?
especially when “Sanctimonious” has won more primaries with more votes and gained more delegates than Newt?
As far as fuzzy math (and other fuzzy thinking)- are you counting Romney as part of “the conservative team”?
Your math on Santorum winning everything is absolutely fuzzy. You want to disenfranchise the Newt supporters so turn about is fair play.
Obama would love Newt to drop out but even if he did..his supporters are not going to all rally around Santorum.
We are half way through the states...noone should drop out. Let Newt make his case and rattle the establishment. Obama has already gone after Newt over gasoline prices and more..he doesnt bother with Santorum.
Newt has a vendetta against Romney and I don’t blame him. He is continuing to introduce his ideas and solutions. I like what Newt is saying...I dont like what RS has done or is saying.
However, since Santorum loves to take one for the team...he should get out and support Newt. Rally around the true conservative
Yes, Newt will repeat his OH performance in IL, but I don’t think he will drop out; it’s now effectively too late for Santorum even if Newt bows out.
How is that any worse than Rick Perry, who you supported, endorsing Rudy Giuliani?
He has an 88% lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union. Newt has a 90% lifetime rating. In other words, there is very little difference between the two ideologically.
Keep spinning the liberal media propaganda while today's Rasumssen poll shows Santorum one point behind Obama.
Give us one poll showing him doing better against Obama than Santorum.
Hillyer hates Newt, and he hates Sarah Palin, both of whom, unlike Hillyer, are Ronald Reagan conservatives.
SO let me clear up this fuzz one last attempt
You “don’t like” RS so you call for him to get out and support Newt - who has less primary victories, less delegates and gotten less votes than RS
but when I point this out, I am “disenfranchising” your guy and fuzzing up the math ....LOL! I’d say the GOP voters of Iowa, Kansas, Tennessee, Minnesota, Missouri, Alabama, Mississsippi, Colorado etc already disenfranchised your guy and fuizzed up his delegate count, as compared to RS
But wait, then you say “no one should drop out”
so which is it? RS stays in, right?
On to Louisiana
yeah, I know
Let me make it clear for you. Newt should not drop out..Santorum should not drop out. I was hitting YOU on your harping that Newt should quit to be sarcastic.
YOU know Santorum does not have the most delegates and you know this election has gone up and down and anything can and will happen. DO NOT try to disenfranchise the Newt supporters and do not assume they will rally around Santorum.
BTW..Newt was not on the ballot in MO and that was just a beauty contest..no delegates awarded. Newt is picking up enough to keep this election wide open.
Santorum got a free pass through many states...the main focus by Romney was against Newt. See the Obama admin., Romney and the gop e see Newt as the real threat and know he will make big changes..they viewed Santorum as nothing..it wasnt until after Fla when little ricky fled home to do his taxes and visit his sick daughter that he starting winning.
He was never vetted to the extent of Cain, Perry or Newt but look out! he is not on all the districts in Illinois which will cost him. Don’t brag too much on vesty...it may come back to bite you in the ass.
Don’t need a poll. They mean nothing at this stage. They are silly really. Polls taken a few days out are pretty good. At this point Reagan was down 30 points to Carter and won. You need to use your instincts. Mine are pretty good based on past experience. I might be wrong, but I dont’ think so.
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