Why Newt's Narrative Is False [Except When it's True]

The American Spectator ^ | March 15, 2012 | Quin Hillyer

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Newt Gingrich seems to be making decent sense, in terms of apparent logic, in saying that by staying in the race he can help rack up enough delegates to keep Mitt Romney from winning on the first ballot at the GOP national convention. Sometimes, though, that which seems to make sense does not actually work in practice. Nomination arithmetic is different from normal arithmetic. And no, I am not talking about how he alters the "impressions game" by splitting the conservative vote and thus either handing pluralities to Romney or narrowing the margins of victory for Santorum. That is a very good argument, but that's not at issue here. What I'm talking about here is exactly the sort of "delegate math" to which Gingrich claims to be appealing.

[SNIP]

(Granted, the risk is that if Romney comes out ahead in a certain state, this math would work in reverse, in his favor -- but since he's already ahead anyway, the only way to stop him is to at least have the chance to make up the gap in larger chunks.)

In short, for all those states with rules like Alabama's, a Gingrich candidacy enables Romney to move inexorably closer to a first-ballot nomination victory. Only a Gingrich withdrawal can stop that march.

Now this is not to say whether Romney ought to be stopped or not. This is just to say that if Gingrich's goal is stopping Romney, Gingrich's continuation in the race is directly counterproductive.

[katiedidit1]

Me too and I know quite a few folks in Texas that want the opportunity to vote for Newt.
He is the only true conservative running

[katiedidit1]

Sanctimonious should take one for the conservative team and drop out.
Bet you werent calling for RS to get out when he was polling in single digits. He wont stand a chance against Obama.

[Sudetenland]

Santorum is a guaranteed loser to Obama in the general election. He is boring, negative, uninspiring, not terribly intelligent, and his manner entirely alienating to most people (or maybe it's just me).

He says all the right things, but he does so with a grimness that is alien to most conservatives. Conservatism is an optimistic philosophy. Ronald Reagan believed in the future of our nation, he saw better times ahead and he reflected that in his demeanor and his speeches. Santorum is too much the grim, Bible-beating, do or die, "We can all survive" candidate.

I've said it before, where Reagan envisioned that "shining city on the hill," Santorum brings the image of some drab, gray, grim gothic cathedral festooned with gargoyles. I'd rather have Romney the moderate than a man with the lack of vision and optimism that Santorum is.

Oh yeah, and it's not just me.

[katiedidit1]

LOL! yes, he does have them running into brick walls. Newt is the cheerful one:)

[maryz]

Get back to me if and when you want to respond to what I actually posted.

[Flintlock]

Blah Blah Blahhhhh...........
Vote RINO! Vote RINO! Vote RIINNOOOOOO!!!!!

We must all band together and vote for THE MOST LIBERAL POSSIBLE CANDIDATE, think Ford, Dole, McCain etc. Otherwise the sky will fall, there will be a (shudder) “open convention” and...................

Them conservatives might take over!!

The horror! THE HORROR!!!!!

[throwback]

By staying in, Gingrich will probably be the king maker. He probably thinks either his oratory skills will sweep a deadlocked convention, or he’ll be the one bartering with Romney at the end. Watch what happens in Illinois. Once again Gingrich will peel off enough to clinch it for Romney just like in Ohio. Santorum has become the only realistic alternative to Romney. If he fails, it’s just a matter of watching the establishment machine grind on to its ultimate failure in November.

[silverleaf]

Must just be you.

and cheer up, you may just get the witty sincere inspiring man-of-the people Romney instead of the boring negative uninspiring Santorum

At least we could count on Santorum to get the low class white trash racist southern working womens votes (per MSNBC)
http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-ed-show/46728237#46728237

[silverleaf]

Gee no, back when Santorum was polling in single digits I was arguing with Cainiacs that Herman Cain would never be president because his most inspiring qualifications were giving entertaining speeches and being a business CEO, and the man’s true courage and character had never been vetted
(that was before all the sugar daddy stuff)

“Sanctimonious” (hello, are you from MSNBC?) is beating Newt and Romney with voters- sounds like a good reason for him to drop out
D.oh.

[trebb]

Newt has them running around in circles and into brick walls.

Yep. Mississippi is a mystery to me as far as why Sanrorum wone. I know many who voted Romney just to make his pick inevitable so Obama stays and teaches us how bad it can really get. I'm afraid it may backfire and not cause the uprising of the People to take the Nation back from the commies.

I would so love to have Newt be the gut and give us all a lesson on the difference between the pompous ass who's ruining the country and a conservative with brains who desperately wants to put us back on track. (Can't wait for the Rickbots to jump on the word "desperatley" and show their own sense of desperation. I hope that if they get their way, it won't bite us too bad.

[steve8714]

You make several assertions without data to back it up. Marginalization by inference is an Alinsky tactic and unworthy of Freepers.
Newt supporters should perhaps follow the example of Mr. Robinson, and support enthusiastically your candidate without the name-calling (Sanctimonious, Sanitorium) and other ad hominem attacks. These only call to mind that Newtie the Gingrich was the only current candidate who appeared on a televised spot with Nancy Pelosi attacking property rights to core AGW.

[steve8714]

Oh yeah, it’s mostly just you, and about 5% fewer voters than Santorum.

[steve8714]

Having said that, the reason Newt doesn’t have a chance at the nomination is that he’s from the House. Not a chance, not any, never did, never will, not in our lifetimes. The GOP will not nominate anyone repeat ANYONE for the top spot whose only office is the US House.
We just have the wrong ex-governor in the race.
Don’t waste your emotion on this.

[silverleaf]

Honest debate would address my point, instead of tossing me banalities about how Newt “changed the political landscape of Georgia” .. Lets look at Newt’s record of steering federal spending to Cobb County GA when he was in Congress. Well-fed conservatives are always staunch conservatives.

Newt on Cap and Trade? (researched his interviews in 2007 and numerous flip flops when he started to see a personal window of opportunity for the national stage after 2009...)

Newt’s loveseat moment with Nancy, that will make a fine obama campaign ad in 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi6n_-wB154&list=PLB4A00C98B91C4F9E&index=12&feature=plpp_video

Now how about the Gingrich and healthcare reform? Like Cap and Trade, he was for mandates before he was against them. How about big spending? Gingrich-Kennedy health plan?
http://www.sitnews.us/0305news/030705/030705_shns_oddcouple.html

Two more words: Dede Scozzafava

Newt did not always push conservatism, except maybe when conservatism pushed Newt

I give the man props for the Contract with America back in... 1994? But he is a dead horse as a potus contender. Keep beating, though, as you choose.

[Mangia E Statti Zitto]

Santorum is Huckabee without the charm or executive experience.

Santorum is McCain or Dole without the war record.

[dt57]

Sure, Rick Santorum will be president of the United States. Too many good republicans need to watch out what they are smoking. I would have a better chance. Mitt and Rick would lose by at least 10 points. If Rick is the nominee look for people like Trump to jump in. There will definitely be an independant challenge to Rick Santorum. I really hope I am wrong, but I don’t think so.

Newt is the best chance to be Obama. Yes, it is an opinion, but one that I will stand behind all the way to Tampa.

[silverleaf]

Lets talk again after Tampa!
cheers

[Cincinatus' Wife]

What in the world. Your sources? Really? LOL

[silverleaf]

Still can’t touch that video ad with Pelosi, can you?
I did my own research, as you do yours
Enough from me already

the voters looking for a conservative they trust will continue to decide between Santorum and Gingrich until our inconvenient vote is negotiated away in a back room, and tossed

have a good debate with honest people

[dt57]

We can talk after Tampa for sure. But it would be more important to have the conversation after the General Election, one that we will have a difficult time winning. Those who think it will be easy are wrong. The president will start with about 47% of the vote. He will need to move the needle 2 to 4 points to win. Actually that is not terrible for us. Most incumbents are in better shape. Rick’s problem is he will get about 37% from fellow republicans and about 5% of people who are really feed up with Obama. He will have to move the need 7 to 9 points. It will have to be fueled with enthusiasm and his personal charisma. I don’t see it happening. More likely that he would lose about 2 points of the people that want Obama to lose. That puts him at about 40 %. It is not enough to win. I have been watching this stuff for over a half century. I have seen this one before.