Posted on 03/14/2012 9:54:02 PM PDT by Steelfish
Illinois Primary Could Be Rick Santorum's Big Chance The Republican presidential contest next week gives the conservative a shot at seizing the momentum from front-runner Mitt Romney, who leads him there by just 4 points.
By Paul West March 14, 2012 — After a pair of pivotal Southern tests, the Republican presidential race has become a battle between Mitt Romney's grind-it-out delegate arithmetic and Rick Santorum's popular momentum.
It's not exactly an even nomination fight at the moment. Romney remains the clear favorite, though his campaign advisors don't expect him to lock up the needed 1,144 delegates before May, at the earliest. Santorum scored upset wins Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama but is unlikely to gain enough delegates during the primary season to overtake Romney. Instead, the insurgent challenger is attempting to keep the front-runner from obtaining a majority before this summer's national convention.
That has added unexpected drama to next week's Illinois primary. "Santorum needs a big unexpected win to fundamentally alter the race," said Republican strategist Mike DuHaime, who is unaligned this year. Illinois, he added, would fit that category.
The state, large and diverse, is not as conservative as others where Santorum has been successful. But a recent Chicago Tribune/WGN poll showed him only 4 percentage points behind Romney statewide, with Newt Gingrich far back.
The Romney forces are again bringing their considerable financial muscle to bear, throwing millions of dollars into Illinois attack ads against Santorum, who has been slow to get on the air. (snip)
"Santorum has to win on Romney turf. Period," Josh Putnam, a Davidson College political scientist who specializes in GOP delegate rules, said in an email. "He has to demonstrate that he can expand beyond the prairie (and surrounding) states and can branch out more than to just Gingrich territory.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
You know what, did I tell you how to format your post? No.
What is it with you folks? This is the second attempt you’ve made to school me on what I need to do.
If you had bothered to do it, I wouldn’t have to.
Well, it’s just there is a certain quality to a lot of the stuff Santorum supporters post, most of which are void of those things I stated: intellectual honesty... etc. I apologize, I am probably making you pay for the other really nasty stuff other santorum supporters have posted. I apologize again for overreacting.
You know what, let me relate to you two specific instances I had to object to a supporter of Newt, who thought it necessary to copy a list of supposed Santorum infractions and post it here.
In that list was this...
Rick Santorum sided with “X despicable Democrat” to support a law that would eliminate the ability of abortion clinic protesters to obtain relief of debt through bankruptcy.
That means that anyone caught protesting an abortion clinic would no longer be able to file bankruptcy.
Okay, there you have it. Everyone reading this would naturally come to the conclusion that Santorum was adversarial to anti-abortion protesters. The only problem is, that charge was utterly false.
The bill had been written to prevent violent abortion clinic protesters who accrued debt due to an act of violence, from being able to avoid financial responsibility. That’s a totally different thing.
If an abortion clinic protester fired off a bomb, burned vehicles, or injured an employee, they would not be able to avoid having to make restitution by filing bankruptcy.
As a supporter of people’s right to protest peacefully, I want abortion protester’s rights protected. I do not what them to be relieved of responsibility for bombing a clinic, burning cars, or hurting someone.
I explained this mistaken aspect of his list, and the Gingrich supporter continued to post the false presentation anyway.
I explained that another charge against Santorum with a link to a bill to verify the charge, was to a totally unrelated bill. This person failed to remove this charge against Santorum as well. He didn’t fix the link either.
Over a week later, this guy was still posting the same charges, only then he wasn’t providing any links at all for verification.
Don’t even try coming here to tell me how unfair Sanotrum people are here. Clean up your side’s act, then get back to me.
Its the RNC own Fault for having these open Primaries. These Dem cross overs will vote Dem in the GE.
And in just 8 Months everyone will be on here complaining how we got played and professing it will never happen again.
I don’t think Newt is polling out of the lower double digits in Illinois.
Santorum is the only one that could stop Mitt in Illinois.
Rick has been vetted for a couple months. He gets the main focus of Romney attack ads.
But do we really know what Hillary has on Newt from those famous FBI files she commadeered? Or what Ms Pelosi has?
Nope, we don’t.
There is no way in the world I will vote for Mitt, the democrat backed candidate! (RINO first class)
Anybody but “Romney” is my motto.
In Michigan Democrat strategist Joe DiSano and liberal talk radio host Tony Trupiano organized Democrats for Santorum.
Newt told Pelosi to bring it or shut her piehole. She shut her piehole.
Actually it is the GOPe and anti-Newt folks that are coming off looking like Ron Paul supporters. I like many here want to stop Romney from getting the nomination its that simple.
Folks that want Romney want Newt to drop out, again a simple concept.
If this goes to the convention and Santorum gets the nomination I will support him but I will never support Romney.
BTW spare me the condensing not voting for Romney is a vote for Obama bullsh*t I dont buy that argument just as I dont buy the Romney supporters calls for Newt to get out.
Most democrats in Michigan stayed on their own side and voted for Obama. If democrats crossed over for Santorum, you'd see Santorum take Wayne County by 20,000 or more. Romney won the county.
They talked a game about mischief, but did not deliver except getting face time in the media about it. DiSano's in Macomb County. If he lead an effective charge, you'd see Warren, Roseville, and Mt Clemens win big for Santorum. Romney won them.
I just know what I read online, and saw o n television. I read the article you linked last night. From what I understand it only says the left’s attempt failed in numbers. So what. It doesn’t change the fact that the left is ecstatic about the prospect of facing Rick Santorum. They are spending money to organize Democrats to vote for him.
This race is “direct delegate election” which means it’s functionally the same as winner-take-all by district. Which means if you can win every district by just 1 vote, you can win all the delegates in the state. Newt had just 40% of the vote in South Carolina under district winner-take-all rules, but he won 92% of the delegates because he had the plurality in almost every district.
This is a state where vote-splitting between Newt and Rick could hand Romney the nomination. A direct delegate election or winner-take-all system means we’re following the Clinton/Bush/Perot model.
Romney probably cannot be stopped from hitting 1,144 in May/June unless he suffers a blowout loss in this state and several other winner-take-all-style states including Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Texas and California.
Folks that want Romney want Newt to drop out, again a simple concept.
Given the current poll numbers, Newt is playing the Ross Perot spoiler role in this state. He's handing Romney the win. If he dropped out and his votes went to Santorum, Santorum would win. This is simple math. Your assertion that Newt dropping out helps Romney makes no sense in at least this state.
thank you very much for that little teaching moment, though being a sanctimonium supporter, I doubt you'll learn anything..
In my previous post, I painted you with a very broad brush because of the way some of santorum supporters have behaved, sometimes specifically to me, and I immediately sent you an apology - for overreacting the way I did. Immediately.
You then turn around and do the same thing to me, only you don't apologize, and augment your maggot statments with that famous self-righteous santorum style.
I am no more responsible for all the posts from gingrich supporters, than you are for the ones from santorum supporters. Only I recognize that, and apologize when I fall short. You, like your candidate, just smarm on with your holier-than-thou sanctimonious words and actions. Will you people ever get it? Or is the pious fog so thick you will never use your brains again?
Again, thanks for the teaching moment. Jerk.
I believe you. that was why I posted the link, and everyone knows how much credence to give ABC News. I had just heard that number several other places, but didn’t want to post it without a link.
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