Posted on 03/13/2012 9:47:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. No matter what happens in Tuesdays Mississippi and Alabama primaries, Newt Gingrich says he will remain in the race, and he believes the combination of delegates being amassed by him, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul will keep Mitt Romney from hitting the magic number of 1,144 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination for president.
Speaking on a local Alabama radio show on Tuesday morning, the former House speaker said there is an advantage to using a tag-team approach to defeating Romney, the current front-runner.
With Rick and me together, we are really slowing him down, with some help frankly from Ron Paul, Gingrich told the radio hosts. The country is sort of saying, a majority is saying, `Not Romney. The biggest bloc is saying Romney, but its not a big enough bloc to be a majority. We now are beginning to think he will literally not be able to get the delegates to get the nomination. Speaking with Fox News host Greta Van Susteren on Monday night, Gingrich said he thinks he has a good chance of winning both Mississippi and Alabama. Alabama Republican Party Chairman Bill Armistead said on Tuesday that Gingrich cannot lose both states if he wants to remain in the race. But the candidates disagrees, saying that even if he doesnt win, the delegate count will be tight.
Governor Romney will get at most one out of every three delegates, Gingrich said. Once again he will fall dramatically short I think that the odds against his being able to get 1,144 delegates is very, very high. I think he is more likely to be a front-runner who ends up not finishing the race.
Romney has won 454 delegates so far, according to the Associated Press. Santorum has 217, while Gingrich has 107.
Gingrich compared the race to a football game that is approaching halftime. The first half was actually better territory for Romney than the second half. And I think as we go through the second half it gets harder and harder for him to finally get to a majority.
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Works for me.
The only problem with this ‘tag team’ approach is it SPLITS his and Santorum’s votes.
Had it been only either him or Rick, Romney would not have won as many states as he did already.
Okay, but what’s the end game?
Wouldn’t it be a surer and more expedient way to go if NG and RS joined forces, and RP threw his supporters to them?
Works for me!!! Gives the demorats less time to try to smear 1 candidate. It’s harder to smear all 4 of them. Now, if the GOP would just ALL start going after Obama!
RE: RP threw his supporters to them?
For those who didn’t get the memo, Ron Paul has been observed since the time Bachmann and Perry were still in the race, NOT TO HAVE ATTACKED ROMNEY EVEN ONCE, EVEN AS HE HAS ATTACKED EVERYBODY ELSE.
Something is afoot between RP and MR.
The guess by some FReepers is they have an agreement -— For MR to choose RP’s son, Senator Rand Paul to be his VP running mate.
Psychologically, this is sound strategy on Newt’s part insofar as it unites the non-Romney candidates behind a common tangible goal.
Our only chance left is a brokered convention. The demographics for the remainder of this primary, all point to a comfortable win for Romney with out the two, sucking votes away from him.
The Tag-Team fails because Romney gets more delegates with 2 Anti-Romney’s in the race, rather than 1.
If it was one on one in MS and AL, Romney would get 5-6 delegates total. Between the two, he’s going to get 30. And with polls in TX and CA, he is likely to get 1/3 to 1/2 of those as well. Under a 3 man race, Romney will clinch the nomination by the time UT votes on June 19.
JH has studied the rules and looked at the allocations and I beleive reached the same conclusion.
RE: The demographics for the remainder of this primary, all point to a comfortable win for Romney with out the two, sucking votes away from him.
But will he make the required delegate numbers — 1,144, to secure the nomination? *THAT* is the question.
Gingrich is an ABSOLUTE disaster at this point in time. He alone is responsible for bringing us Romney within reach of claiming the nomination. Carl Cameron on SuperTuesday said it best on FoxNews when he reported that the Romney camp was happy that Gingrich continues to be in the race. And why not? They should be delirious with delight. Romney would have been kaput had he lost in WA, or his home state of MI where he carried by a mere three points with Gingrich draining away 7% of the vote and finally in crucuial OH where Romney won by just one point and Gingrich siphoning 15% of the vote. So we all pay the price for his bombastic ego. God help us! His sugar-daddy Vegas casino mogul Adelson sent Gingrich a rope line of $20m only because he thinks Gingrich is strong ally of Israel (like Ill move the US Embassy to Jerusalem....and ignite a major breach with US interests in the region that every American president, including the Israelis would not want to happen) and Adelson doesnt seem to like Santorums social conservatism. What a world we live in?
This is a bad strategy.
In states that allocate delegates proportional to the voting (as opposed to winner-take-all), most require a candidate to get a minimum amount of the popular vote (like 15% or 20%) to even qualify for delegates.
The A-B-R candidates are missing out on delegates because there have been several cases where one didn’t have enough votes to qualify for delegates.
Second, if all the rumors are true, then on the second vote at the convention, Ron Paul would release all his delegates to Romney.
The only advantage that I can see to this strategy, is that it splits Romney’s advertising budget.
Well, I think the former Speaker is wrong. By staying in, the Grinch assures Romney’s victory.
Well that being the case since Newt leads Santorum in MS and AL. Santorum voters need to vote Newt that way Newt get >50% and Mittens get no delegates.
I tried to analyze the counties voting and the effect of having Gingrich or Santorum out.
No Santorum = Romney 596, Gingrich 156 (Paul gets the rest)
No Gingrich = Romney 470, Santorum 308
This was using the assumption that 2/3 of Gingrich’s/Santorum’s voters would go to Santorum/Gingrich, and the rest to Romney.
Gingrich’s ego and ability to screw the rest of us while overplaying his hand hits again.
Gingrich:
Global Warming
Lacks Immigration Enforcement
Individual Mandate for Healthcare Insurance
These are all liberal positions that Gingrich has taken to the harm of the Conservative movement. He thought he could manage both the opposition and the public response on each of these. He has renounced NONE of these positions to this day.
His ego is a destructive force in the conservative movement.
“If it was one on one in MS and AL, Romney would get 5-6 delegates total.”
Your assumption rests on the premise that once someone drops out all their support goes to the other.
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