Don’t look now, but a new IL poll shows what happened in MI, OH, WA, AK, and AZ is going to happen there: splitting the vote:
Romney 35% Santorum 31% Newt 12% Paul 7% Undecided: 15%
It’s this simple. Romney picks up a 1/3 of the delegates in each Southern state by getting only 20-25% of the vote with 2 Anti-Romney’s in the race. He’s going to get that at least in AL and MS, just like he did in OK. That alone will get him over 1,144 when you factor in the favorable Romney states.
The only chance is for the Anti-Romneys to combine. Santorum has shown he can win where Newt can, but Newt has shown he can’t win anywhere outside the South. Go ahead, play this ego trip out. At the end of the day when Romney has the nomination, you have no one to blame but yourself.
Santorum finally stopped skidding in Gallups/Rasmussen’s tracking poll and is hovering back around 25%, while Romney was cruising to 40% but has fallen back to 35%. Meanwhile, Gingrich is still stuck at or below 15%.
If it is not Santorum, it will be Romney. That is a fact.
A great analysis that is a must read by some of the Gingrich die-hards who have their heads buried in the sand and don’t seem to realize the enormous damage Gingrich is doing.
Excellent post.