If Newt Gingrich dropped out, how many of his supporters would go to Mr. Santorum? It is hard to know for sure and it might depend in part on whether Mr. Gingrich endorsed Mr. Santorum.
We can also ask : If Santorum dropped out, how many of his supporters would go to Newt? It is hard to know for sure and it might depend in part on whether Santorum endorsed Newt.
In other words, who has the better chance if it were simply a 3 way race:
SANTORUM, ROMNEY and PAUL
or
GINGRICH, ROMNEY and PAUL ?
I don’t know about now but had he dropped out prior to Iowa, when Willard was playing dirty on Girngrich, Santorum would have been history a long time ago.
The difference is that Santurom has won more than 2 states and he has places 2nd in more of the others than Gingrich has.
Right now, Gingrich is the hucka-hanger-on that is causing the conservative vote to be split.
In other news, Santorum does not have the political structure in some states.
Some time after SuperTuesday, more states become winner-take-all. Thus, placing or showing doesn’t even get a delegate. That UPs the game.
Santorum would have had no chance without Gingrich, because he would have been on Willard’s hit-list, but Willard considered him too unimportant to bother with. Santorum only got where he did because of the destruction wreaked by Romney (with Santorum’s help, I will add) on Perry and Gingrich.
As for Gingrich voters, I honestly don’t think most of them would go to Santorum. The man has no ideas, an unlikeable persona, and is just as big-government, nanny-state as Romney. So I don’t know where they’d go.
“How Would Santorum Do Without Gingrich”
I’ll ask the same question only in reverse. :)
Yeah, they need some delegates to keep them interested with additional delegates awarded if they adopt a congressional district allocation system similar to what is used in Maine and Nebraska.
Or simply grant them a certain minimum number such as given to American Samoa or Guam, plus a multiplier times the actual number of electoral votes they delivered for the GOP candidate over the last 4 or 5 presidential election cycles. If they have a new congressional district allocation system in place, then they can use what they would have won had that system been in place in previous election cycles.
Newt's votes would go 100% for Romney.
Santorum's votes would go 100% for Newt.
Is that what you are trying to say? God help us survive this drivel.
How would Gingrich do without Santorum?
If Newt drops out, I ain’t supporting Father Ricky. I go over to Mitt.
Rick is ahead of Newt in national polls by 13.3 points.
Rick Santorum is our best last chance to get rid of Romney.
To be a Newt supporter one must look past all of his baggage.
The reason Santorum is beating Newt is because he has real American family values...
...but so does Mitt.
So if Newt dropped out, I suspect that 80% of his supporters would go to Santorum because they are the two most conservative candidates in the race.
However, if Santorum dropped out, I could see a large percentage going over (reluctantly) to Romney simply because he doesn’t have all of Newts baggage.
My opinion is that Gingrich and Santorum represent different factions of the conservative vote, and that the overlap is much less than most FR observers think. A Gingrich droput would probably send more voters to Romney or Paul than to Santorum.
Note to all Newt and Santorum supporters. The romney supporters are sitting back smiling while we two go at it. Maybe that is what all this is about. Divide and conquer. I remember a time when we Santorum supporters said we would support Newt if RIck did not make it and Newt supporters would support Rick.
“How Would Santorum Do Without Gingrich?”
Better question. How would Gingrich do without Romney?
COULD he have defeated Romney in more states had Gingrich accepted the reality of his poor numbers in most states before now. Obviously. Frankly, it’s all over but the ego for Newt right now. MAYBE he can prevent Rick from winning Al and Ms, ending the race, but his chances will not improve one iota. I’m starting to really dislike Mr. Global Warming, frankly.
Romney is a liberal fraud, and why Newt wants to hand him the nomination is anybody’s guess. Romney’s SCOTUS appointments will be little different from the Punk’s, based upon his Ma. record. This is getting me sick. When it’s over, it’s over, Newt, and everyone knows it but you!
JMHO