FReepmail “Antoninus” to be added or removed.
Posted on 02/25/2012 9:27:36 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
I have watched as the predictable polls have been produced showing Mitt Romney creeping back into the lead in Michigan by the exiguous margin of 1.6% according to the RealClear Politics Average. But is Willard Mitt Romney really ahead or not?
No one knows for certain but I have done a little analysis of the polling during this primary season and have come away with several salient factoids. The first is that Romney nearly always overpolls. He was narrowly ahead in Iowa by 1.3% and he lost by .1%. His lead in New Hampshire was 20, while his margin of victory was 16.4%. In South Carolina, Romney trailed Gingrich by only 5 in the RCP average but was walloped by 12.5% on election day. His polling matched his performance only in Florida, where polls showed him ahead 13 and he won by 14. Only in Nevada, fueled by a huge Mormon block vote did he actually underpoll, winning by 29 while his poll average was about 23.
In Colorado Romney was polling ahead of Santorum by 38.5% to 26.5%, just two days before the election. Santorum beat him by 5.5% on election day. In Minnesota, Romney trailed by 2 the day before election day and was clobbered by Santorum on election day by 18. In the Missouri primary, Romney trailed Santorum by 13 on the day before the election, but was clobbered by 30 the next day.
It is difficult to deny that Romney consistently and often dramatically overpolls.
Second, Santorum tends to underpoll. His vote total exceeded his polling margin in every contest contest except New Hampshire (where he overpolled by 2) and Nevada (where he broke even). He underpolled by 8 in Iowa, 6.2 in South Carolina, .4 in Florida, 12 in Minnesota, 14 in Colorado and 10 in Missouri, according to RealClearPolitics.
Finally, with specific regard to Michigan, I make two observations about its primary which is an open primary in which Democrats and Independents can vote.
First Romney has under-performed in states with open primaries, such as Missouri, Minnesota, South Carolina and even Iowa, which permits anyone to change their registration on caucus night to vote. Santorum, on the other hand, has over-performed by wide margins in all four states with open primaries. Romney-by contrast has overperformed only in the two closed primary states of Florida (albeit narrowly) and Nevada (with the Mormon assist).
Finally, Open Primary states are notoriously difficult to poll. As the election approaches, the pollsters try to poll "likely voters" in order to improve their accuracy. But how do you poll likely voters if you do not know what your pool is? If you do not know who will show up, your poll isn't worth a pitcher of warm spit. No doubt this was a major reason the polls were so far off in Colorado, Missouri, Minnesota, Iowa and South Carolina, while they were closer to the mark in Florida and Nevada. The supposedly accurate Rasmussen had Newt up over Romney only 33-31 three days before the open South Carolina primary. Romney got blown away 40-27 on election night. Now Rasmussen has stuck his toe in the water of another open primary state, Michigan, this time giving Romney a 6 point lead (which is fueling Mitt's slender 1.6% lead in the RCP average). If he is as wrong in Michigan as he was in South Carolina, Romney is actually five points behind.
The bottom line on Romney's alleged 1.6% lead over Santorum is that it is likely a deficit, perhaps a substantial one. Any poll lead Romney had in Open Michigan would be suspect because of the difficulty in polling open primary states and the fact that (at least so far this cycle) Santorum has overperformed in open primary states while Romney has miserably underperformed.
I have no idea whether the current polls are honest attempts to gauge a very difficult electorate or whether they might be push polls designed to depress Santorum's turnout. (Rasmussen is a pretty well known GOP Establishment pollster, who is well disposed to Romney). Santorum supporters should not be dispirited at all by these polls which, when taken in the context of other such polls this cycle, suggest that Rick Santorum is poised for a major upset victory in Michigan this Tuesday night.
Wow, that was quick and quiet, I saw him on another thread, he did seem frustrated.
Negative campaigning doesn’t always work and sometimes when you overuse it it blows up in our face. It usually works best the first time you use it, which is why ROmney was able to clobber Gingrich with it effectively in Iowa. Then Romney used it again in FLA. He won, but turnout was way down. He has only won one caucus since Florida, Nevada, which is so Mormon rich, it really is no bellweather at all. Meanwhile, he has lost a real bellweather-—Missouri— by 30 points, along with crushing defeats in MN and CO, where late polls showed him winning by double digits.
Mitt always overpolls. Mitt does more poorly in open primary states where the GOP-E has less control. Michigan is an open primary state. Mitt is going to lose it. Mark my words.
The latest ARG poll, which came out Thursday, has Romney behind in Michigan 38-34.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/mi/
Looking at his posting history it seems that it wasn’t so quick, he was just a Romney troll, with the usual ‘Reagan would be a rino here’ type tales to tell.
http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/by:sick1/index?brevity=full;tab=comments
Come on, conservative Michiganders!! You can save the nation from having to be forcefed the Rominee!!!
Who are these people, what is this force, behind the Rominee, and what will they do to us if their “inevitability” and media purchase get them into the White House? Let’s speculate forever and NOT FIND OUT.
Come on Arizonians too. With a Santorum sweep we can broom Rominee into a corner before Super Tuesday and give the others that much more momentum.
FReepmail “Antoninus” to be added or removed.
What about the trendlines though?
The difference may be Time. There isn’t much time left to have some other candidate rise. Newt probably can’t get much of a bump at this point, because of all the Santorum voters now, and Newt’s supporters have to decide as they go into the booth whether they want to vote for Newt at any cost, or whether they want to keep Romney out. Because of the time factor, there may be more of the latter than previously.
Why is it we believe the polls when Santorum is in the lead, but when he’s not, we dismiss them?
Human nature!! Why would you like someone more when he agrees with your positions? I try not to do this but that self-bias creeps in a lot...
The Newt Voters and rhe undecided voters are going to go heavily for Santorum. And the Democrat crossovers are going to pour it on Romney, the phony hypocrite who pretends to be from Michigan.
The dynamics here do not favor Romney and I don;t care how many Rasmussen polls he pulls out. Santorum is going to win this, and it won’t be all that close.
We can still pray that Romney loses these next two races by enough of a margin to give the edge to Santorum in momentum. I do not trust Gallup polling, as it is consistently off, and they tend to poll people who will not be voting. I personally don’t think Santorum is collapsing as someone has suggested here. It’s been a couple weeks since the last primaries/caucuses, so it’s natural for them to dip a notch or two in the interim. I hope everybody reads the more recently posted article about Romney and his so-called conversion to conservative. I hope that goes VIRAL!!!
Have you seen my posts? :)
We need to get Newt folks in AZ & MI to vote for Rick and take out Romney... I think Rick should pull ALL Negative ads about Newt and have a serious conference with the Newt Team. This must include all the folks that Newt promised jobs to in exchange for them not supporting Rick. They need to have this talk now!
Have you seen my posts? :)
We need to get Newt folks in AZ & MI to vote for Rick and take out Romney... I think Rick should pull ALL Negative ads about Newt and have a serious conference with the Newt Team. This must include all the folks that Newt promised jobs to in exchange for them not supporting Rick. They need to have this talk now!
Agree Dan...and the Santorum folks have received this message from Freepers loud and clear. What they decide to do with it is theirs to win or lose.
“We need to get Newt folks in AZ & MI to vote for Rick and take out Romney...”
do you really think that Newt supporters want to give their vote to Santorum? if Santorum were to win AZ and MI, then Newt would have the Santorum momentum to overcome. Newt still has a chance, and is the strongest candidate to defeat BO in November.
No, Colorado didn’t have a primary. This is a dangerous comparison if you want to compare polling data. The problem with comparing the Colorado intrade numbers is that they all used the same polling data, which pointed to likely voters. That’s much different than caucus goers, which turn out in far less numbers and require more time to fulfill the obligations.
Colorado didn’t vote, they caucused. Time will tell, but I suspect the polling numbers are accurate, and they were in Colorado too, but the caucus commitments skewed things.
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