Romney leads Santorum, 49%-26%.But among those who HAVEN’T voted in Michigan yet, Santorum is up by one point, 37%-36%. The same is true in Arizona: Among those who have voted early or absentee in Arizona -- more than half of all likely GOP voters in the poll -- Romney leads by 30 points, 52%-22%. But his lead is just one point among those who haven’t voted yet, 34%-33%.
Call it organization vs. momentum. But while the Romney campaign’s early-voting organization is clearly helping him, a lack of support from conservatives is hurting him.
In Michigan, Santorum leads Romney among self-identified Tea Party supporters, 48%-29%, and those who describe themselves as “very conservative,” 59%-20%. Yet among those who don’t support the Tea Party, Romney is ahead by more than 20 points, 45%-24%.
The same ideological pattern is true in Arizona, although Romney performs much better with the most conservative voters there than in Michigan (thanks in part to the larger Mormon population in Arizona).
Debate tonight is make or break for both Romney and Santorum. Although even a slight win for Romney in one of his best states doesn’t bode well for him.
Romney sucks. Can't run on issues.
If I were not so sickened at how this election is turning out and if our futures were not at stake, I would load up on Pop Corn and sit back and watch the outcome for nothing more than entertainment value.
Just goes to show that nobody with a Biblical moral compass can win a national election in this country anymore.
My parents live in Arizona, and called us last night asking who they should vote for. I told them either Newt or Santorum, though Santorum is leading, so voting for him would help consolidate behind one of the not-Romneys.
I think everyone knows that Ron Paul will never make such a selfless decision as to throw his support to someone who can actually stop Romney. And that should say all there needs be said about him.
The Drudge-supported promotion of misquoted media clips of Santorum/aides statements are doing the trick for Romney, as designed.
it is pretty funny that newt said who loses his home state should drop out and then next couple of days we see mitt might win mi after all but newt is sinking in georgia...alas i doubt newt will be a man of his word
The media and Tokyo Rove have already trotted out their excuse templates if Mitt loses in Michigan.
1. He hasn’t lived there for a long time.
2. They don’t remember his daddy
3. People only know him as Massachusetts Governor
So if Mitt does happen to lose Michigan, these are the only reasons he would lose according to Tokyo.
I think Santorum will win there.
Early voting is an abomination. Probably even the work of.....Satan
Romney’s negative ad campaign has only effected a 4% dip. Not bad.
The debate tonight will be decisive. Rick can reintroduce himself.
Rick will also have to hit Romney hard. He should go after Romneycare and his abortion flip-flops.
Anyone but Romney.
In 2004, when Romney was shilling for Planned Parenthood, their political arm made an Internet cartoon featuring Choice Chick, Kerry and Edwards against Bush, Cheney, robot judges and Rick Santorum! Could anyone dig that one up?
More like millions of dollars of sleazy ads by the Romney attack machine vs. momentum.