Posted on 02/21/2012 5:11:24 AM PST by Kaslin
Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote a fantastic book on the impact of large, high impact, statistically rare events called The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Technically, Taleb would probably classify the events we're about to discuss as "grey swans," unlikely events that we should still be able to anticipate, but that's splitting hairs. Long story short, we should be aware that our world can change for the worse in a hurry and we should make sure we're taking steps to alleviate the danger.
Default on the Debt: This is, far and away, the scariest option on the list because all we have to do to ensure that it occurs is maintain the status quo for the next 10-15 years -- if that long. Congressman Mike Pence says we may only be a decade away from a default and Senator Tom Coburn thinks we may be less than 5 years away. By 2020, it'll take 19% of the world's GDP just to finance our debt and by 2030 it'll take 36% of all our tax revenue just to pay the interest on the debt. When people call our spending "unsustainable," that's not hyperbole. What happens if America goes bankrupt and defaults? A Depression would begin, your life savings could become worthless overnight, your taxes would explode, your standard of living would plunge, violence and instability would break out, and payments from the government could dramatically drop or stop altogether.
Demographic Assimilation: "According to a 2002 Zogby poll, 58% of Mexicans said that the ‘territory of the United States’ southwest rightfully belongs to Mexico.'" Mexico, being a bad neighbor, actively encourages both illegal aliens and Mexican-Americans to have their first loyalty to Mexico. This hasn't been a big issue thus far, but we still have porous borders and there's a genuine danger that Mexico could become a failed state. What if the worst happens and we go from 10-12 million illegals in the United States to 25-40 million packed into the southwestern United States in a relatively short period of time? Demographics are destiny, which is something we taught both Mexico and the Indians the hard way, which is why it's so ironic that we think that same lesson couldn’t ever apply to us.
EMP: There haven't been any high altitude nuclear explosions since 1962; so it's hard to definitively know exactly how much damage a nuke exploding over the center of the United States would cause. A Solar Storm, which could theoretically produce almost the same effect, is even more of an unknown. However, it's entirely possible that a single nuclear bomb or Solar Storm could fry enough electronics to send us all the way back to the Dark Ages in the space of a few heartbeats. Airplanes would drop from the sky, the power grid would go down long term, the Internet would go offline, and nearly all the electronics, computer circuitry, and automobiles people rely on would stop functioning. Millions would die in a few months’ time, economic activity would grind to a halt, and people all across America would get to experience the old school "Oregon Trail" video game in real time.
Nuclear Weapons: There's always a chance that some dictator or religious nut could launch a nuclear weapon at us, but as nukes proliferate to more unstable nations, the chances of terrorists or hostile intelligence agencies sneaking those weapons into the United States will increase dramatically. This will especially be true if Iran gets nukes, because that would undoubtedly inspire Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt among other nations to also acquire nuclear weapons.
Imagine nuclear weapons going off in LA, DC, NYC, Chicago, Houston, and Philadelphia all in the same day. Millions would be killed, tens of millions would be displaced, it would cost tens of trillions, those cities could be unusable for decades, and it's entirely possible we would likely have NO IDEA who is behind it at first. That would seem to make our porous borders into a high priority problem although you certainly wouldn’t realize it from the lackadaisical approach the Bush and Obama administrations have taken to securing the border.
Biological Weapons: The Black Death killed somewhere between 30%-60% of the population in Europe, smallpox killed roughly 300 million people in the 20th century, and less than a hundred years ago, the Spanish Flu killed somewhere between 50-100 million people. Now consider that there are roughly 20 nations that are believed to have biological weapon programs including Iran, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, Syria, and North Korea. Put together hostile and/or unstable regimes with access to weaponized biological agents with terrorists (or even environmental extremists who believe the planet is overpopulated) and you have the potential for tens of millions of deaths, nationwide disruptions, and panic that could last for months or even years.
He’d probably say “New Madrid Earthquake” (again).
Ironically, there was a small one earlier today.
You got that right.
She also thought that the generators people had had been given to them by the power co. because they were “rich”. The power co. didn’t give the poor people generators.
She also thought that there was 3 different prices for gas because it was rich peoples gas, middle peoples gas, and poor peoples gas. She had seen rich people buying poor peoples gas.
The only reason I talked to that idiot as long as I did was simply for the amusement value.
Apparently it had never dawned on her that those big trucks that pull up and park around the periphery now and again were delivering rather than picking-up.
This is “sort of” a novel black swan. In the space of one hour, something gobbles up the entire internet. Just makes it go haywire, FUBAR, you can’t get on anywhere to even discuss what the hell just happened? Then the infrastructure systems that tie into the net start going haywire, and at the end of the day, power is going out in cascades, water systems don’t work, planes can’t fly....
And nobody even knows what the hell caused it. It just “is.”
the internet destroying old media was a black swan.
the tea party movement was a black swan.
Prediction implies control.
The internet coupling with the tea party is a black swan because the kleptocrats could not control the situation.
I laughed about how stupid she was at the time, but as I thought about it she was just plain scary stupid and there are millions more just like her.
There was a 4.0 quake this morning in Missouri near the New Madrid fault line. A 9.5 quake along the New Madrid fault line with a simultaneous eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera would kill around 90% of America’s population.
In her mind:
1. Electrical power comes from a wooden stick
2. Gasoline comes from the ground.
3. Money comes from the government.
The first scenario of Custer would be in the realm of science fiction - not a black swan.
The two atomic bombs on Japan are indeed a black swan for Japan - and you cite an excellent example.
The knowledge of the bomb was held in a very tight circle - and in the realm of real science.
I write about real science and particularly the edge of new science. (i.e. thus my article about Mother Abigail transforming the media by hijacking Free Republic in 2003)
Her predictions on SARS and Ebola and now her prediction about “The Coming Wave”, are real science. They poke around at the edge of knowledge and understanding, but are rock solid in their basis of fact.
That is a black swan.
True. We'll hyper-inflate our way out of it.
See also, Weimar Republic...
I don't just laugh off stupidity anymore.
People that are dependent on the govt will believe anything, and if the govt. isn't there to take care of them they will be dangerous.
the tea party movement was a black swan.
Prediction implies control.
The internet coupling with the tea party is a black swan because the kleptocrats could not control the situation.”
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I agree, but would argue that prediction only implies perception.
Perception is an ability in our species that runs the full gamut of expression. From the savant to the savage the range of perception varies in the individual and is not uniform in our species.
Within that range of expression are those who, thru all history, have seen the dark clouds when others did not.
To ignore those who are continually accurate in their precognition is, in my opinion, to restrict our knowledge base.
No idea that food needed to be delivered to the grocery stores either...
Aren’t groceries made and deliveried by little elves that live in a hollow tree?
In her mind:*sigh*1. Electrical power comes from a wooden stick
2. Gasoline comes from the ground.
3. Money comes fromthe governmentObama's stash.
Just the cookies and crackers.
Vegetables are provided by a giant green guy.
You’re right, she did not have a clue.
She was driving around so she could listen to the radio but she was about out of gas. She wanted them to unlock the pumps so people could get gas for free, the store didn’t need to open.
I see now and I guess Elsie the Cow milk, butter, cheese and ice cream. WOW! The things you learn on FR is amazing!
Bio Weapons - Countries without good healthcare will be hit harder
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And there are those who want the population whittled down to 10% of what it is now, or even 1%. Some of those are very wealthy and control some politicians who can affect the level of health care available. Has anyone heard of Obama care? How about George Soros and Ted Turner?
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