5 Black Swans That Could Obliterate America's Future

Townhall.com ^ | February 21, 2012 | John Hawkins

[Kaslin]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote a fantastic book on the impact of large, high impact, statistically rare events called The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. According to Taleb, history tends to swing much more than we realize on these theoretically foreseeable, but often unexpected large events as opposed to the much more predictable trajectory that we tend to forecast when we look ahead to the future.

Technically, Taleb would probably classify the events we're about to discuss as "grey swans," unlikely events that we should still be able to anticipate, but that's splitting hairs. Long story short, we should be aware that our world can change for the worse in a hurry and we should make sure we're taking steps to alleviate the danger.

Default on the Debt: This is, far and away, the scariest option on the list because all we have to do to ensure that it occurs is maintain the status quo for the next 10-15 years -- if that long. Congressman Mike Pence says we may only be a decade away from a default and Senator Tom Coburn thinks we may be less than 5 years away. By 2020, it'll take 19% of the world's GDP just to finance our debt and by 2030 it'll take 36% of all our tax revenue just to pay the interest on the debt. When people call our spending "unsustainable," that's not hyperbole. What happens if America goes bankrupt and defaults? A Depression would begin, your life savings could become worthless overnight, your taxes would explode, your standard of living would plunge, violence and instability would break out, and payments from the government could dramatically drop or stop altogether.

Demographic Assimilation: "According to a 2002 Zogby poll, 58% of Mexicans said that the ‘territory of the United States’ southwest rightfully belongs to Mexico.'" Mexico, being a bad neighbor, actively encourages both illegal aliens and Mexican-Americans to have their first loyalty to Mexico. This hasn't been a big issue thus far, but we still have porous borders and there's a genuine danger that Mexico could become a failed state. What if the worst happens and we go from 10-12 million illegals in the United States to 25-40 million packed into the southwestern United States in a relatively short period of time? Demographics are destiny, which is something we taught both Mexico and the Indians the hard way, which is why it's so ironic that we think that same lesson couldn’t ever apply to us.

EMP: There haven't been any high altitude nuclear explosions since 1962; so it's hard to definitively know exactly how much damage a nuke exploding over the center of the United States would cause. A Solar Storm, which could theoretically produce almost the same effect, is even more of an unknown. However, it's entirely possible that a single nuclear bomb or Solar Storm could fry enough electronics to send us all the way back to the Dark Ages in the space of a few heartbeats. Airplanes would drop from the sky, the power grid would go down long term, the Internet would go offline, and nearly all the electronics, computer circuitry, and automobiles people rely on would stop functioning. Millions would die in a few months’ time, economic activity would grind to a halt, and people all across America would get to experience the old school "Oregon Trail" video game in real time.

Nuclear Weapons: There's always a chance that some dictator or religious nut could launch a nuclear weapon at us, but as nukes proliferate to more unstable nations, the chances of terrorists or hostile intelligence agencies sneaking those weapons into the United States will increase dramatically. This will especially be true if Iran gets nukes, because that would undoubtedly inspire Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt among other nations to also acquire nuclear weapons.

Imagine nuclear weapons going off in LA, DC, NYC, Chicago, Houston, and Philadelphia all in the same day. Millions would be killed, tens of millions would be displaced, it would cost tens of trillions, those cities could be unusable for decades, and it's entirely possible we would likely have NO IDEA who is behind it at first. That would seem to make our porous borders into a high priority problem although you certainly wouldn’t realize it from the lackadaisical approach the Bush and Obama administrations have taken to securing the border.

Biological Weapons: The Black Death killed somewhere between 30%-60% of the population in Europe, smallpox killed roughly 300 million people in the 20th century, and less than a hundred years ago, the Spanish Flu killed somewhere between 50-100 million people. Now consider that there are roughly 20 nations that are believed to have biological weapon programs including Iran, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, Syria, and North Korea. Put together hostile and/or unstable regimes with access to weaponized biological agents with terrorists (or even environmental extremists who believe the planet is overpopulated) and you have the potential for tens of millions of deaths, nationwide disruptions, and panic that could last for months or even years.

 

[raybbr]

SHTF in 5 easy lessons.

[HChampagne]

These five are in no way as ruinous as knowledgeable people not voting.

[DannyTN]

• "Default on Debt" - Won't happen as long as debt is dollar denominated.
• EMP - hurtful, but nothing we couldn't bounce back from quickly, unless there is a coordinated war launched, and we refuse to fight.
• Nuclear Weapons - We lost New Orleans to Katrina and barely noticed.
• Bio Weapons - Countries without good healthcare will be hit harder
• Demographics - Easily stopped if we can muster the political will to do it.

  A supervolcano, or communist/liberal infiltration of the government are much greater threats than any of the above. Multiple EMP's could be a threat.

[DannyTN]

"These five are in no way as ruinous as knowledgeable people not voting."

Or citizens being too lazy to become knowledgeable before voting.

[SumProVita]

Even more reason to be praying and fasting for our nation...

(How many people are doing this?)

[optiguy]

We’ve had ” The man from Hope, Arkansas”, ” Hope and Change” and now, ” Hope we get out of this alive”.

[relictele]

Too late, I’m afraid.

The sixth and most immediate item is the possible reelection of the Scarecrow in Chief.

[wita]

Default on the debt is a congressional, and leftist red herring. We have complete and total control over our financial future, and if we continue as at present, we deserve the destruction that will be ours. It will prove once and for all just how stupid the American people really are...or not.

Cut, slash, defund, eliminate, etc are words that better start appearing in the headlines if we have any hope of surviving the next few years.

[frithguild]

WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!

[astounded]

“The sixth and most immediate item is the possible reelection of the Scarecrow in Chief.”

Now THAT is funny...the way you put it. The possibility, however, is NOT funny, and I agree, Barack Obama poses a clear andpresent danger to the USA.

[astounded]

“The sixth and most immediate item is the possible reelection of the Scarecrow in Chief.”

Now THAT is funny...the way you put it. The possibility, however, is NOT funny, and I agree, Barack Obama poses a clear and present danger to the USA.

[bvw]

NONE OF THE ABOVE ARE real black swans.

Here's TWO actual events in the process of fully actualizing that are better examples of "Black Swans":

1. A generation with a big majority of fatherless children. This is never happened outside of war. And even in war, the children were born in wedlock. There was always the spirit and memory of the Dad and of the marriage along with the legitimacy of lawful fatherhood to assuage the actual lack of a father.

2. A society where majority of people are living alone. Unlike the generation of fatherless children which is already upon us, that fatherless generation now being infants, we are not yet a society where most people live alone. But we are getting there. Eric Klinenberg has says in his book Going Solo: The Extraordinary Rise and Surprising Appeal of Living Alone

   In 1950, there were about 4 million Americans living alone, a little less than 10% of all households were one-person households. And back then, it was most common in the sprawling Western states, like Alaska, and Montana, and Nevada, because single migrant men went there.

   Today, there are more than 32 million people living alone—according to the latest census estimates, 32.7 million—and that’s about 28% of all American households. This is an enormous change. Instead of being most common in the West, it’s now most common in big cities, and it's common in big cities throughout the country. In Seattle, and San Francisco, and Denver, and Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C., and Chicago, there are between 35 and 45% of the households have just one person. In Manhattan, where I live, about 1 of every 2 households is a one-person household.

[The Great RJ]

• Default on debtAlmost assured if Obama is re-elected and the Democrats get a majority or near majority in Congress.
• EMP Possible, but a far easier method would be coordinated attacks the nation's electric grid. Remember the 2003 northeast blackout was caused by a single power surge.
• Nuclear weaponsIt is almost a certainty that some world city will be destroyed by a nuclear device within the next decade and highly likely it will be a US city destroyed by a terrorist nuke. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is highly vulnerable to takeover by radical Islamic jihadists and poses a bigger threat than Iran since Pakistan's nukes are already built and tested, in weapons form and numerous.

[FastCoyote]

I’ve gone into the Default on the Debt scenario extensively writing two books already out:

Going Galt: Surviving Economic Armageddon http://www.futurnamics.com/goinggalt.php
Surviving Civil War II: Preparing for Social, Economic & Political Collapse http://www.futurnamics.com/civilwar.php

I have a third book about the Biflationary paradigm we’re in which I just finished and will show up in a couple days on Amazon :
Biflationary Depression: Protecting Assets From Inflation And Deflation In A Keynesian Collapse http://www.futurnamics.com/biflation.php

The numbers I’ve researched on the economy for these three books really are frightening. We may muddle through at some level (the sun will always come up) but buckle up for rough times.

[The Great RJ]

• Default on debtAlmost assured if Obama is re-elected and the Democrats get a majority or near majority in Congress.
• EMP Possible, but a far easier method would be coordinated attacks the nation's electric grid. Remember the 2003 northeast blackout was caused by a single power surge.
• Nuclear weaponsIt is almost a certainty that some world city will be destroyed by a nuclear device within the next decade and highly likely it will be a US city destroyed by a terrorist nuke. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is highly vulnerable to takeover by radical Islamic jihadists and poses a bigger threat than Iran since Pakistan's nukes are already built and tested, in weapons form and numerous.
• Bio weapons Possible threat, but with modern methods and medicine they could be contained to limited areas. However mass casualties are still possible.
• Demographics Not too likely as the thousands of illegals are fleeing Mexico and may not have much allegiance to a Mexican government.

[IMR 4350]

I’m glad you got it all figured out Pollyanna.

[Buckeye McFrog]

“If you nuke us, use an EMP or a bioweapon we’ll default on our debt”.

Mutual Assured Destruction. Problem solved.

[CodeToad]

I don’t think the author understands what a ‘Black Swan’ is. Thery are surprises. Nothing in that list hasn’t been discussed ad nauseum for years.

[Smokin' Joe]

These five are in no way as ruinous as knowledgeable people not voting.

I am far less concerned about knowlegeable people not voting than the ignorant showing up at the polls en masse.

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers.