Numbers Suggest Santorum Could Be Romney's Worst Nightmare

Townhall.com ^ | February 17, 2012 | Scott Rassmussen

[Kaslin]

In a campaign defined by Republican reluctance to embrace Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum has emerged as the latest not-Romney candidate to surge ahead. While it's impossible to predict what will happen in this volatile election season, the data suggests that Santorum might be more of a challenge for Romney than earlier flavors of the month.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the GOP race shows that Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney by 12 points, 39 percent to 27 percent. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are far behind. In and of itself, that's nothing new. The man from Massachusetts has at times trailed Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich in the polls.

What is new are the numbers from a head-to-head matchup with no other candidates in the race. Santorum leads Romney 55 percent to 34 percent. None of the earlier Romney alternatives could manage better than a toss-up in such a contest.

Those numbers show that Santorum picks up 16 points when other candidates drop out. Romney adds just 7 to his column. Santorum makes huge gains among conservative voters when others drop out of the race. Among non-conservatives, Santorum and Romney gain roughly equal amounts. For the first time, the numbers show that if one of Romney's challengers drops out, the other challenger will overwhelmingly benefit. Gingrich supporters, by a three-to-one margin, would vote for Santorum over Romney if that was the final choice.

Both Romney and Santorum are well-liked by Republican Primary voters, but Santorum has a slight advantage on this pointm as well. Seventy-five percent offer a favorable opinion of Santorum, while 66 percent say the same of Romney.

There is a huge passion gap favoring Santorum, though. Forty percent of Republican primary voters have a very favorable opinion of Santorum. Just 18 percent are that enthusiastic about Romney.

The one thing keeping Romney afloat is that he is still perceived as the strongest general election candidate. For some Republicans, that's enough. But to survive the Santorum challenge, Romney needs to give primary voters something more, something positive. GOP voters want a reason to vote for him beyond the fact that he has the most money and the best organization.

Team Romney needs to acknowledge that Republican voters are not only strongly opposed to President Obama's agenda but that they don't think much of Washington Republicans, either. They want a president who would shake up the good old boys network in Washington rather than join it. To date, Romney's attitude signals that he'd be more comfortable leading the club than challenging it.

Santorum has a very different challenge. First, he must survive the onslaught of ads coming from the Romney campaign. Then, he must convince Republican voters that he can win the general election in November. Electability is still the most important factor for Republican voters. If Santorum can neutralize the electability argument, he could become Romney's worst nightmare.

The next primary competitions are slated for Feb. 28 in Arizona and Michigan. If Romney wins both states, the race will probably be over. However, if Santorum can pull off a victory that day, he will be far more than the latest flavor of the month.

[Kaslin]

The more they play the Romney attack ads, the more I am convinced Rick Santorum is the Candidate for me

[Do Not Make Fun Of His Ears]

I hope he knocks Robomney right out of the saddle.

[Tennessee Nana]

Oh dear

Rick is in the hair..

[delapaz]

Rick Santorum is not Mitt Romney and that’s good enough for me.

(this also works for Gingrich, but whoever’s beating Romney currently is getting my vote in OH)

[altura]

The more I read comments about Santorum by Newt supporters (and I am one), the more I feel called upon to defend him against some of the ridiculous charges.

He is a conservative. The occasional vote we didn’t like during two senate terms does not change that.

He did not use his sick little child as a campaign prop. That is nonsense and sick in itself.

He doesn’t knock your socks off but if he gets the nomination, I will support him happily.

[xzins]

I am not a fan of polls, but I do know they reflect reality at a given point in time if fairly conducted.

This is another wake-up call for conservatives and Free Republic.

Neither of our 2 remaining conservatives in this race are perfect, but they are clearly the conservatives. Santorum had an 80% ACU rating and Gingrich an 88%. I attribute that difference to Santorum being from liberal Pennsylvania and Gingrich being from very conservative Georgia. That Santorum was able to maintain that high a conservative voting record while in a liberal state and win 4 terms says that he is not a pretend conservative.

We must view EVERY attack on Santorum or Gingrich as an attack from Romney. We are past the point where we can give the benefit of the doubt to those in the media who want to raise fine points of conservative purity.

I am totally, completely 1000% convinced that that is a paid for attack originating from Romney.

His attack ads listing Santorum as a big spender, a voter for debt extension, etc. are ridiculously transparent. That big spender raised government grabs of money in his state without even thinking. He accepted all the Federal money he could get.

We also know that those omnibus spending bills in Congress are DESIGNED by the opposition to force legislators who want, for example, money for the troops, to vote for something they don't like.

There still isn't a line-item veto, and the senate was controlled mostly by the democrats.

So, are we going to support those trying to knock off our remaining candidates, or are we going to recognize it?

[TomGuy]

Santorum has become the ‘not’ candidate.

He is not Mitt ‘I have been on every side of every issue’ Romney.

He is not Newt ‘I have a trainload of baggage’ Gingrich.

He is not Ron ‘I would isolate the USA from the rest of the world’ Paul.

Right now, that puts Santorum in a good position. It will be interesting to see, in the coming week, how he holds up to the attack ads. He is challenging Romney in Michigan and Gingrich in Georgia, their ‘home turfs’.

Gingrich may have become over confident a few weeks ago when he announced that he would be the nominee. Of course, Santorum, or any of the candidates, could still have a ‘macaca’ moment, a Deaniac scream, a Muskie tear-fest, and sink to the bottom.

[txrefugee]

Isn’t it time for Willard to drop out for the good of the GOP?

[Carry_Okie]

Santorum isn't dumb enough to fall for Romney's attack trained Tar baby.

Gingrich took the bait.

[KansasGirl]

[ The next primary competitions are slated for Feb. 28 in Arizona and Michigan. If Romney wins both states, the race will probably be over ]

Hardly. How many times have the GGP-e said that this primary season?

[altura]

What are you talking about?

[USS Alaska]

Santorum isn't dumb enough to fall for Romney's attack trained Tar baby.

The ad the Rick is running in MI is funny as hell.

It shows a romney look a like with an automatic mud gun shooting at but missing, Rick cardboard targets and in the end getting mud on his nice white shirt.

Very effective parody on mittens mud slinging and it will work without being nasty.

[palmerizedCaddis]

Wow, I got banned from FR for questioning a NEWTUS MAGNIFICUS post in favor Rick.

The overlords here are slipping or something.

They accused me of being a dhimmikrat troll.

Yet you have posted in favor of my guy.

The overlords must be on the Media Matters stipend

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

You can spin Santorum any way you like, but it was Santorum who helped Specter keep his Senate seat, only to immediately turn on us and be the 60th vote to approve Obamacare.

The biggest problem you have in selling your hero is, the fact that he will lose to Obama. You better get busy and do some research on your own. Take an inside look at what the other side has already planned for Santorum. You think that it was rough for Newt? You ain't seen nuthin’ yet!

If Santorum is picked, we will not only lose in a very big way, it will also relieve the angst from the GOPE, because they know Santorum well, and his past gives them cause to relax if he gets the nomination. Not so with Newt, and you know it.

[P-Marlowe]

Santorum should just run 5 second ads after each Romney attack ad with My Cousin Vinny saying “Everything that guy just said is bull$#!+”

[iowamark]

Santorum has a very different challenge. First, he must survive the onslaught of ads coming from the Romney campaign. Then, he must convince Republican voters that he can win the general election in November. Electability is still the most important factor for Republican voters. If Santorum can neutralize the electability argument, he could become Romney's worst nightmare.

Santorum has not yet been tested. He has not gotten the Obama/Romney hate barrage that Gingrich has.

[PreciousLiberty]

I had to track that ad down after you mentioned it - it is very good!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtOcrS6axnE

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Are you trying to take over? I’m sure your kind words to the owner and your “overlords” will resonate. (Got Milk for your toast?)

[Vigilanteman]

Seven reasons for Rick Santorum

1. Who has won the most states without the benefit of their own money, last election's organization or a billionaire casino sugar daddy?
   
2. Who is everybody's second choice when he isn't their first?
   
3. Who can get both the Romney people and the Gingrich people, who hate each other, to vote for him?
   
4. Who has the best record on immigration?
   
5. Who has the best plan for repealing ObamaCare? And is the only GOP candidate who didn't help write or approve legislation which helped spawn this fiasco?
   
6. Who has the best plan for expanding the American economy and strengthening American families?
   
7. Who is the closest thing we have to the "generic Republican" which polls show consistently beating Obama and is most likely to make the election about Obama's sorry record rather than about himself?

[Brices Crossroads]

“Not so with Newt, and you know it.”

Newt is dead man walking. It is Santorum or Romney. Easy choice. Santorum will defeat Romney and will win the midwest battleground states (which are overwhelmingly white working class). Those states are absolutely beyond reach in the general to Mittens and they would be harder for Newt to win than Santorum, a legitimately blue collar ethnic Catholic. As a first generation Italian-American, Santorum would be poised to win states like New Jersey which have heavily Italian populations and which would clearly be out of reach for either Romney or Gingrich.

Even Nate Silver, a big lib, is beginnning to see it