Santorum moves ahead in Michigan (Santorum 39, Romney 24, Paul 12, Gingrich 11)

Public Policy Polling ^ | 2/13/12 | staff

[TexasFreeper2009]

Rick Santorum's taken a large lead in Michigan's upcoming Republican primary. He's at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.

Santorum's rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich. Santorum's becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support.

Santorum's winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich. And he cracks the 50% line with voters identifying as 'very conservative' at 51% to 20% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich.

Santorum's benefiting from the open nature of Michigan's primary as well. He's only up by 12 points with actual Republican voters, but he has a 40-21 advantage with the Democrats and independents planning to vote that pushes his overall lead up to 15 points. Santorum is winning by a healthy margin in every region of the state except for Oakland County, where Romney has a 40-26 advantage, and the area around Lansing where Paul actually has an advantage at 30% to 27% for both Romney and Santorum.

[TexasFreeper2009]

You may not have agreed with it at the time, but I think Gingrich’s bain capital attacks from South Carolina are still reaping results.

[dt57]

I will be careful. It is interesting how people use the word Newbie, as if it meant anything. Good luck to you. One word of advice: read before you respond. Been around a long time. Hang in there with Rick, I will be watching as always. If he becomes president I will be pleased, but very surprised.

[ohioWfan]

dt57
Since Feb 6, 2012

I'm not exactly stretching the word 'Newbie' with you, dt57, am I? :)

People say all sorts of things.......like "Been around a long time"........that don't mean a lot when that darned old sign on date is there for everyone to see.

btw, I am praying without ceasing that God has mercy on America and either Rick or Newt leads us for at least the next four years.

Most importantly, I am praying for HIS will.

See you around.

[dt57]

Newbie does not mean anything except it is the time one signed into free republic. It certainly does not mean they are dumb or stupid as some imply. Yeah, I have been around about 60 years and have six grand children and have ‘been around’ political discourse for quite some time. :)

[ohioWfan]

Oh, I understand that. I just think that saying 'been around a long time' when posting on a particular forum is misleading.

I'll take you for your word that it wasn't intentional.

But if you know anything about FR, you know that there are a lot of liberal trolls who sign on, claiming conservatism, who are anything but.

Most people are skeptical until a track record has been developed, and though I think you're telling the truth, I remain skeptical.

btw, welcome to Free Republic. There are some nasty people here who are best avoided, but overall it's a fine place to be. :)

[Impy]

I heard tell Romney’s attack on Santorum will be

1)”No executive experience”. (having none is much better than doing a horrible job in MA)
2)”Washington Insider” (never mind he once ran for the Senate himself, also being a “DC insider” is better than being a Boston insider)

I also heard about a lame opening gambit, on behalf on Romney former Senator Jim Talent blasted Santorum for voting for that Medicare part D thing. Only problem, Talent voted for it himself. Fail.

[Broker]

Compare Santorum to BHO, not Romney. That is the one issue. Compare everyone to Barrack Hussein Obama. Nobody knows who POTUS really is. Wake up America! American media has us all killing each other!

[Clintonfatigued]

If Santorum wins Michigan, where does that leave Romney?

[cripplecreek]

If Santorum wins Michigan, where does that leave Romney?

Circling the drain.

[Broker]

Romney will use all RNC resources on squashing opposition. Scored earth, pissing all over the big republican tent. He will not go gracefully into the night.

[txhurl]

I think we and everybody give Republicans on the ground a little too less credit in that obviously a huge chunk want Anybody but Romney.

If Newt can’t take him out, they’ll use Santorum to do it, then get back behind Newt. Santorum’s recent surge with no ground game crowds to back it up is a clue.

[Clintonfatigued]

If Santorum wins Michigan, he could easily become the nominee.

[writer33]

Yes, sir. If Santorum wins Michigan, it looks good.

[GOPsterinMA]

Grovelling for safety in Detroit perhaps?

[Darren McCarty]

It’s hard to believe that Romney wouldn’t sweep MI, but I guess the electorate is too young to recognize George W. Romney.

I'm a Michigan native. George Romney was last elected in 1966 and left in 1969 to join Nixon's cabinet. Anyone under 43 (including me) was not even alive for his tenure. Anyone under 55 probably has only a fading memory of him or what his parents said about him. Anyone under 67 was unable to vote for George Romney.

In addition, the more people see Mitt, the less they like him. My parents in their 60's don't like him and think he's a panderer. They don't like Newt either. They'll vote for anyone over Obama, however. I'm in my 30's, so all I know about George Romney was the stories. Mitt reminds me of another car guy. Joe Isuzu.

[Darren McCarty]

I think Mitt knows this is his last chance. He's spent the last 6 years obsessed with being president.

Scorched Earth

[grellis]

If you would like to be added or dropped from the Mitten ping freepmail me

[commish]

Yesterday I was saying that Newt and Santorum should tag team ROmney with Rick backing newt in Southern States and Newt backing Rick in Northern states with an express goal of stopping Romney.

With the latest round of polling and other things that have and are happening I am beginning to think that the tag Team does not need to happen in that way.

it may be time for Newt to approach Rick about a different kind of Tag Team — Newt drops out and endorses Santorum and in return Newt becomes Santorums CHIEF of STAFF or even VP.

[dt57]

I have read Free Republic for at least 15 years. But thanks for the welcome. I am a conservative, through and through. And I can vote for Rick Santorum, I just don’t believe you send a boy scout with a pocket knife to a gun fight.

[deport]

National polling isn't the bell weather as our Presidential elections are decided state by state. But Santorum has pulled ahead on a national level in the last week.

2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Santorum	Romney	Gingrich	Paul	Spread
RCP Average	2/6 - 2/13	--	--	30.8	29.2	16.2	12.7	Santorum +1.6
CNN/Opinion Research	2/10 - 2/13	478 A	4.5	34	32	15	16	Santorum +2
Gallup Tracking	2/9 - 2/13	1200 RV	4.0	30	32	16	8	Romney +2
CBS News/NY Times	2/8 - 2/13	331 RV	5.0	30	27	10	12	Santorum +3
Pew Research	2/8 - 2/12	552 RV	5.0	30	28	17	12	Santorum +2
PPP (D)	2/9 - 2/10	656 RV	3.8	38	23	17	13	Santorum +15
FOX News	2/6 - 2/9	407 RV	5.0	23	33	22	15	Romney +10

At the link is a graphic that depicts how each candidate; Perry, Cain, Gringrich have pulled ahead only to fall back. The question becomes how will Santorum fair in this regard? I'm not sure what the final outcome will be but so far no one has been able to get solid footing with the voters and hold onto it.