Posted on 02/02/2012 1:17:14 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Rasmussen has a couple of interesting polls out today on the Republican primary race, but none yet in Nevada, which I presume will come tomorrow. Instead, Rasmussen focuses on the Arizona primary that will take place in less than four weeks and act as a springboard for Super Tuesday. Mitt Romney holds a 2-1 lead and almost a majority, 48/24 over Newt Gingrich:
A new telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Arizona shows Romney with 48% support, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich comes in a distant second with 24%. Thirteen percent (13%) prefer former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and six percent (6%) support Texas Congressman Ron Paul. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Fifty-three percent (53%) of Arizona GOP primary voters are already certain of their vote, but 42% say they still could change their minds. Six percent (6%) have no initial preference yet. Voters already sure of their vote include 62% of those supporting both Romney and Paul, 48% of Gingrich’s voters and 46% of Santorum’s.
As is the case virtually everywhere else, the economy is the top voting issue for Arizona GOP primary voters. Forty-nine percent (49%) say economic issues are the most important in terms of how they vote, while 24% say fiscal issues like taxes and government spending are the most important. In Arizona, 47% of GOP primary voters rate their personal finances as good or excellent, while 16% rate them as poor. While 20% say their finances are getting better, 51% say they are getting worse.
Romney is seen as the Republican candidate who would do the best job managing the economy by 54% of primary voters in Arizona, while just 22% view Gingrich that way.
There probably isn’t much mystery to dispel from the internals, but let’s take a look anyway. The gender gap is back in a big way for Gingrich in Arizona; Romney beats him among women by 33 points, 51/18. Romney unlocks the “very conservative” demographic in the state, winning by 17, 44/27, and taking majorities in the other two ideological categories. Gingrich has a slight edge among Tea Party backers, 39/33, but loses to Romney by double digits in every religious, age, and income demographic.
The reasons for Gingrich’s problem are familiar. His favorability is relatively low at 55/41, with only 16% having a very favorable impression of the former Speaker. Among women, it’s 49/47. Romney has a 78/21 favorability rating. Only Ron Paul does worse than Gingrich at 34/61, while Santorum does nicely at 63/29. On personal character, Romney takes 44% of the respondents, Santorum comes in second at 34%, while Gingrich comes in last at 7%.
Could this change? There is only one debate on the schedule, but it will be in Arizona, six days before the primary. Michigan will hold its primary on the same day as Arizona, so Gingrich may choose to split his time or default in Michigan, where Romney will undoubtedly be strong. However, Gingrich probably can’t win by going negative, not with personal ratings like these, so unless he uncorks a beauty of a performance in that debate, he’s going to get buried. Meanwhile, Romney gets 57% of the voters who say they’ve made up their minds, and 44% of those who could still change, while Gingrich gets 22% and 30%, respectively.
In Rasmussen’s daily presidential tracking poll, Barack Obama ends up in virtual dead heats with three of the four Republicans in the race. Guess which one Obama beats outside of the MOE?
In potential Election 2012 matchups, it’s President Obama 46% and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 45%. However, if former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is the Republican nominee, the president holds an eight point lead, 49% to 41% (see tracking history). These matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Rick Santorum trails the president by two points, 46% to 44%. Ron Paul trails by three, 45% to 42%.
I will NOT vote for RINO’s if Romney is at the top of the ticket. That includes Tommy Thompson for Senate in Wisconsin (Who will likely win the nomination if Romney wins the nomination for President).
Very conservative means they self identify as very conservative, a REAL conservative may identify the same people as liberal fruitcakes. I have seen people say such things as, “Now I am VERY conservative but I think the government should pay everyone’s medical bills.” In some cases they may as well have said that they are very tall but can’t see over a three foot fence.
I’m in Texas also. Maybe it’s time we started taking the whole Texas secession thing seriously.
That’s your perogative and that’s a lose-lose situaton and you have nothing.
I will not vote for RINO’s at that level as a punishment to Romney and the establishment. We can rebuild in 2014 if needed. I don’t like it, but it is the way it will have to be
I wonder what I am...
I view REAL conservatives as squishy moderates.
Lol!
Stop saying that or its going to get the hose again.
Seriously though...you don't know how many times I have tried to explain that to people on this board...but no dice. Think about it: Shouldn't FR have a MUCH larger membership than it does? It's 50K people. There are tens of MILLIONS of hard core right wing Republicans. I talk to people all the time who are just as conservative as I am that have never heard of FR...and thus...they never hear most of the things we are talking about....unless they happen to catch it on Rush...or some other talk show...but not even Rush talks about a lot of the stuff going on that you can see posted on FR.
“look at the internals.. women are killing Gingrich *sigh*”
Why is it that you think it’s only “women” who don’t like Newt’s many marital indiscrepancies? What about the male offsping of a philandering father. . . These are emotional triggers which can’t be overcome by Newt. Not in this culture.
um... because I am looking at the internals of this poll which show women hating Gingrich and men loving him.
and which poll is this? do you have a lot of faith in polls?
No one is any more awake than they were in the last presidential election.
The establishment dictates WHO the two candidates will be. This assures they'll have either Obama or Obama Lite (Romney).
As Mark Twain said many years ago:
"If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it."
Thank you I love it here!!!
Well, I think that the Republican Party is in the process of leaving me behind.
There’s this huge myth floating around about Romney’s electability, but it’s hogwash. Romney doesn’t like to talk about the issues very much because he ends up eating loafer. He has a huge problem with the base because of ObamneyCare, which stands to reason because he represents the GOP telling the base to open wide while they shove the crap sandwich made from pulverized principle down our throats. The country is in a huge financial and economic mess because we’ve been taken for granted, followed these idiots who push mushy moderates that ended up making a huge mess. They can’t and won’t fix it because they are more concerned about power than any plight of Joe and Jane Average and the only things they want to change are the seating arrangements at the power-broker’s table.
I certainly hope SCOTUS does its job and strikes down ObamaCare because then it will make it much easier for me to become apathetic in November. Our problems didn’t start with Obama and they won’t end by just getting rid of him.
Anyway, I think John Adams expressed my feelings best when he said:
”I would quarrel with both parties and with every individual of each, before I would subjugate my understanding, or prostitute my tongue or pen to either.”
-John Adams
Santorum has better favorability ratings and matches up better against Obama. He's only trailing Newt 25% to 17% in Gallup's national polling.
I hope conservatives will reconsider who has the best chance to stop Romney and beat Obama.
What about men who are loving & faithful to their wives?
Newt has, by most accounts and to his credit, turned over that page in his life.
But the view expressed by many 'conservatives' that infidelity and divorce are trivialities that only short-sighted women (or children of philanderers?) dislike is pathetic. Are Christian gentlemen really such an endangered species?
Question #17 on the poll , rate Jan Brewer, I would be interested to see the result.
“We can rebuild in 2014 if needed. I don’t like it, but it is the way it will have to be.”
I would not count on it. If they mess with the POTUS election this much what do you think would prevent them from thwarting it again. With success comes boldness.
Fortunately, serial infidelity is not trivial to most. It is despised. That’s one thing that overrides politics, and that people understand, if anything. He can’t overcome that in this culture, despite “philandering” being joked about in private or glossed over in the tabloids.
The men and women who are faithful ARE out there and they don’t like what they know about Newt personally. And, btw there is a huge difference in public perception between divorce and infidelity.
This poll is most likely the way it is. The outcome will probably be like Florida.
From the beginning, Romney was pushed as being the most electable. That notion was planted early on and is being proven to be successful so far.
If Newt wants a chance, he is going to have to find a way to fight that notion.
The establishment dictates WHO the two candidates will be. This assures they’ll have either Obama or Obama Lite (Romney).
So why do I have this very bad fealing that after Romney’s performance as president we find that Obama was Romney lite.
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