Posted on 02/01/2012 10:10:24 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Its a two-man race in the Pine Tree State. But the contest isnt between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich; its between Romney and Ron Paul.
In 2008, Paul won third place in Maines caucuses with 18 percent of the vote. But he was only 178 votes shy of tying John McCain for second. And this year, with an extra push, Paul might just be able to win the state outright.
The Paul campaign has really dedicated the resources to the state that make it possible for them to win the caucuses, says Ken Lindell, chairman of the Maine Republican Liberty Caucus. (The caucuss national organization has endorsed Paul, but Lindell has no official role in the Paul campaign.) Theyre doing real voter-ID calls not robo-calls like they did last time, he adds. As far as I can tell, theyre the only campaign that has a real ground game.
The seriousness of Pauls efforts was on display last weekend. On Friday, he met with Governor Paul LePage; on Saturday, he led several rallies, including one in Freeport that attracted 1,000 Mainers. Although LePage didnt endorse Paul the event was more of a meet and greet LePages spokeswoman Adrienne Bennett says, I hear [the interaction] was positive.
Paul did receive the endorsement of state representative Aaron Libby, who met the congressman while visiting Washington, D.C., in 2010 with a delegation of apple farmers. Asked why he supports Paul, Libby mentions a characteristic that many of the congressmans supporters admire: consistency. Its so rare for a politician to stick to their principles, he says. Congressman Paul truly represents something different.
But Libby is an outlier among Republican elected officials, many of whom have lined up behind Romney. In September, the Romney campaign released a list of 40 Maine politicos who had endorsed the ex-governor, including state attorney general William Schneider.
Mitt Romney appears to be leading significantly among the Republicans that Ive been in touch with, says state-house majority leader Phil Curtis.
Their support is indicative of Romneys strength in the Pine Tree State. He won 52 percent of the caucus vote in 2008. And his campaign is organized unlike Newt Gingrichs or Rick Santorums, neither of which is highly visible in Maine.
But Pauls forces are especially organized. They are training their members in the intricacies of caucus politics. Last Friday, for instance, they held a conference call in which they explained the delegate-election procedures for potential candidates. A Maine GOP official tells NRO that Pauls supporters have even been helping Republican town committees organize. Theyve been making sure committees elect chairmen, which enables them to hold caucuses caucuses that could deliver more delegates to Paul.
Although Romneys organization is predictably formidable, I havent seen any organized effort by the Romney campaign to do that, says Richard Bennett, the Republican national committeeman for Maine and a Romney supporter.
Consider Penobscot County. Traci Gauthier, chairwoman of the county Republican committee, tells NRO, [Pauls] campaign has been calling and making sure they have the times right and which towns will be at the caucus. Ive also been contacted about a speaking opportunity by his ground people. And the only other candidate weve heard from is Mitt Romney.
Or try the town of Palermo, which held its caucus on Sunday. Republican-town-committee chairwoman Cheryl Parkman tells NRO that 14 people attended the caucus. Despite the small turnout, Parkman says four people representing the Paul campaign showed up and spoke on behalf of the congressman.
Theyre very articulate, she says. Theyre really great with their grassroots. Although Parkman couldnt reveal the results of the caucus vote, she hints, Every candidate was represented there in the vote.
Only Pauls campaign showed up at the caucus in Millinocket, says David Duplisea, chairman of the town Republican committee, which caucused on Monday. Forty-eight people attended the caucus, and there were a couple of Paul backers, brandishing brochures and signs.
Before the vote, the committee allowed a representative from each campaign to speak. We had a call from Mitt Romneys campaign, Duplisea says. But for them to travel it would have been a three-hour trip; theyre down in Portland. Instead, a local supporter spoke on his behalf. (No one spoke for Gingrich or Santorum.)
The caucuses are already underway, though the Maine GOP has encouraged towns to hold their events between February 4 and February 11, when it will announce statewide results. Within this seven-day window, each Republican town committee follows a similar procedure, of which Pauls supporters are taking advantage.
The chairman issues a call for a caucus, held at a convenient location such as a fire house or high school. In some cases, multiple towns hold their caucuses at the same location locals call them super caucuses though each municipality votes separately. Unregistered or unaffiliated voters (among whom Paul is popular) have an hour before the event to adjust their registrations so they can participate in the caucus. Registered party members, however, cannot change affiliations at the last minute; they have to switch 15 days in advance.
Before caucus-goers vote, they conduct routine business, such as electing officers of the town committee and, crucially, selecting delegates to the state convention, which opens on May 5 in Augusta. The vote itself is the least consequential piece of business, since the caucus is a beauty contest its results arent binding on the states delegates to the national convention. Each town reports its results to the state party, which releases them on February 11. But the real contest is the selection of delegates, who will determine their standard bearer at the convention.
All 24 of Maines delegates to the national convention are unbound. At the state convention, the delegates chosen in the coming weeks will assemble to choose the national delegation. The first three votes will consist of the state-party chairman, the national committeeman, and the national committeewoman. Maines two congressional districts will receive three delegates each, whom the corresponding town delegations will choose at the state convention. Finally, the entire convention will choose the remaining 15 at-large delegates.
In other words, Maines caucuses reward the perseverant, and no word could better describe the Paulistas.
Theyll be exploiting every advantage they have. Charlie Webster, chairman of the Maine GOP, tells NRO that the Paul campaign has contacted him and discussed having Senator Rand Paul, the congressmans son, address the convention. Were willing to have everybody who wants to get involved, he says.
Theyve actually worked this advantage before. In 2008, despite the fact that John McCain had clearly won the nomination by the time of Maines state convention, the Paul forces managed to elect at least one Paul delegate to the national convention. In 2010, the Paulistas wielded enough strength among the state-convention delegates that they threw out the platform proposed by the party, a Maine Republican operative tells NRO.
Those [Paul supporters] have slowly begun to work their way into the system itself and now are much more accepted parts of the system. I really think theres going to be a strong performance for Ron Paul, the operative says.
Pauls message of limited government may prove particularly persuasive within the 2nd Congressional District, which covers the more rural part of the state. The far northern Aroostook County, for instance, went for Paul in the 2008 contest.
I think Mr. Paul has done well in some of those more rural areas because they tend to be more conservative, observes state representative Andre Cushing. Romneys strength, on the other hand, will probably be in the central and southern parts of the state, surrounding the I-95 corridor.
Asked to evaluate Pauls chances for winning, the operative says, I would probably still be betting on Romney winning, but I can see a scenario in which Ron Paul either wins or comes close.
Lindell concludes, This might be the state that Ron Paul can win.
Brian Bolduc is an editorial associate for National Review.
Why would Ron alterPaul do well in conservative areas, he is not a conservative.
Dude, just how many states did Newt not get on the ballot it??? Maine, Virginia, Missouri...?
Of course Paul could win Maine! Few states have a higher concentration of left wing, nut job, America hating hippie commies than Maine!
Why not? Someone wins the Powerball Lottery every week. : )
RE: just how many states did Newt not get on the ballot
I’m afraid that’s the reason why Romney is the favorite to win it all. Virginia and Missouri aren’t states you can overlook. They have a significant significant of votes that count towards the final tally.
I spent almost a year in Maine (military)...Ron Paul can have it.
Newt is on the ballot for the MO caucus which is where the delegates are awarded. The MO primary awards nothing. MO did not want to be penalized 1/2 it’s delegates for having a Feb. 7 primary so they scheduled a Mar. 17 caucus to award delegates.
Hopefully Ron Paul will win Maine.
Newt will win the South (minus Floriduh!)
Santorum will win several states in the midwest: Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Indiana...
... Mittens falls shy of the 1144 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.
We end up with a brokered convention...with a dark horse candidate emerging.
If he does, so what? I don’t see Maine as an indicator of anything except some possibly-eccentric voters.
In the scheme of things they don’t matter a whit.
RE: with a dark horse candidate emerging.
JIM DEMINT !!!
It’s interesting to think about...
Jim would be good. But so would Scott Walker, Allen West, Marco Rubio, perhaps even someone from Wasilla.
I spent almost a year in Maine (military)...Ron Paul can have it.
“Thank you for visiting Maine. Please don’t come back.”
Could Maine be any more irrelevant than my state of NH?
The better question is, "Will anybody care if he does?".
Ron Paul is like a crazy old uncle. Occasionally his antics are amusing, but most of the time you just ignore him and hope he goes away.
Don’t worry...it’s way too cold up there for this Georgia boy. Didn’t mean to hurt your feelings...
there is no “ballot” in caucus states. ME and MO are caucus states.
Every been to a caucus?
A must read for BOSTON area activists.
The super-duper caucus is 2/11 9am in Sanford ME near Rochester, NH and Portsmouth NH.
http://www.mainegop.com/2012/01/maine-g-o-p-2012-caucus-information/
schedule
Be there if you’re for Santorum or Newt.
Call me. give me a ping.
gopsterinma, can you put a note on the MASS page about Sanford? Let’s defeat Romney.
Nope, and probably won't ever be to one, either, at least not a Republican one. Now, the Party that ends up replacing the GOP after it nominates Romney and subsequently falls apart, I might.
Wasilla?
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