Posted on 01/30/2012 9:52:32 AM PST by dead
... who gets the would-be VP nod depends greatly on who is the nominee. As Newt Gingrich's odds of winning have spiked and dissipated twice in the last two months, the market for vice presidential candidates has reacted...
If Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, my model estimates that he is 25 percent likely to pick Chris Christie as his running mate, a popular moderate governor from New Jersey who himself flirted with running for president before strongly endorsing Romney. (This in spite of the fact that you'd have two Northeasterners on the ticket.) The market puts Christie's overall chance of being the VP of any Republican nominee at only 14 percent, but because his odds tend to rise in tandem with Romney's, my model boosts his chances to 25 percent in the scenario where Romney is the nominee. Rubio is a close second to be Romney's right-hand man at 22 percent. Rubio's VP odds actually drop whenever Romney's go up (they are anti-correlated), but because Rubio's such a likely overall pick, he's still the second-most likely Romney pairing. Rubio so far hasn't endorsed a presidential candidate and has repeatedly said he's not interested in the VP job. No other candidate rises above single digits as Mitt's pick for a-heartbeat-away.
If Gingrich wins the Republican primary, he's most likely, at 30 percent, to pair up with Rubio. Christie virtually falls out of the running for VP at below 5 percent if Gingrich emerges the primary winner. Over the past 90 days, when Gingrich rose in the presidential market, Rubio tended to rise too and Christie tended to fall in the vice presidential market...
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Is Rubio qualified in accordance with Article II, Section 1 of the US Constitution?
If not, oh well...
That’s the ticket I will be hopeful for.
Yes, by a handful of birthers stomping their feet while the rest of the country ignores them.
That’s right.
Chestur Arthur, Obama and Rubio all had at least one parent who was not a citzen at the time of their birth..
Anyone who is saying that Obama can’t run for President must admit that neither can Rubio.
You can’t pick and choose.
Strange model.
Two Northeastern moderates? No.
I think Rubio’s a Romney guy like pretty much the rest of the Florida Republican establishment. Don’t think he’d accept the nom from Gingrich.
Newt would probably pick Ron Paul as his running mate.
Yes, Marco Rubio is qualified in accordance with Article II, Section 1 of the US Constitution.
Is Rubio qualified in accordance with made-up birther nonsense? Who cares...
The main reason for would be to serve as his pit bull. Christie really is great at clearly, bluntly, and logically putting the media and other liberals in their place. Romney's an oily douche and has no such ability. He just sound whiney and apologetic whenever anybody challenges him on an issue.
Also, the NYTimes and such would briefly praise the selection, which is always paramount in the minds of Romney/McCain types.
Of course, all the muted approval of the media will disappear like a twenty on a three card monte box, once the general election gets underway.
Romney/Christie will be beaten like a Singaporean gum chewer.
Obama/Romney would be unstoppable.
Gingrich/ANY solid fearless rational Midwestern or Southern conservative.
Flopney/Crisco ..LOL! Let the establishment try to shove that down our throats.
Please link me to your proof.
Christie or Rubio? Yech!
Gingrich/West!!!
My pick too!
The interesting thing here is that Christie is temperamentally more like GINGRICH in his combative public persona than anyone else Romney could pick or would be likely to pick as Veep choice.
Don’t wanna be, uh, “cynical”, but if that will be the choice
it will be done with the full knowledge of both Romney and Christie that their perceived images would be of use and highly exploitable to one another. Romney gets to be associated with someone who is a relentless,confront the unions, let’s -get- it- done type (which runs totally counter to the Romney image),
and Christie is sanitized and softened by the much more
“moderate” Romney, who is now and forever seen as the more “electable” choice between him and Gingrich.
It would be an unusual choice for Veep, since Veeps are usually a little safer at the outset, though it’s always been clear that Veep now could mean President 4 years from now.
I can’t see Gingrich’s choice being Rubio, which would be seen as a naked act of pandering,regardless of how sincerely
the choice might be made.
Rubio is on record in the pages of Sunday’s (2 days ago) NYTimes Magazine
as saying he’s not interested in the job and wants to serve Florida.
My choice for Gingrich would be Perry, who is as principled as Gingrich, but fits nicely into the “safer” template because of his more genial image, and , let’s face it, his lack of ability as a debater/communicator compared to Gingrich.
No thanks, these brain dead articles are getting old.
A good combo. But it won't happen.
Often the reason to pick a running mate is to draw in more voters. McCain was so far to the left that he had to pick a conservative. Other than that example, the VP slot is typically filled to bring in the votes from an important state. Since Texas is a sure thing for the GOP, I wouldn't expect Perry. A secondary consideration is age...a younger candidate will still be a viable choice in 8 years.
Gingrich/Santorum (PA) or Gingrich/Kasich (OH) or even Gingrich/West (FL) would be more likely.
I fail to see how Christie is going to help Romney’s campaign. It would be a finger in the eye of conservatives, and Romney doesn’t have enough money to beat Obama without the conservative base. Rubio, however, is an excellent choice for Newt.
So they can be caught up in the Obama collapse?
That would be damned stupid. Rubio is not eligible to hold the office.
“Agatha Christie! Yeah!
Oh, she’s dead.”
No, Julie Christie.
Oh wait, she’s British ... like Obama.
If Romney wins the nomination, his pick for a running mate will not matter.... Obama will win, period.
As for Newt, I can’t say why, but I am uncomfortable with Rubio.
I like a Newt/West ticket. I am not sure that this would be a strong choice in terms of political advantage, but absent a better choice at this point in time, I like it. I couldn’t care less about how many Black votes that West might bring, because I consider 95% of them racist and dumber than a box of rocks. West is a good man, a real leader, a true patriot, a heroic man and a man with solid principles.
Having said that, I just want Newt to pick a conservative running mate that would enhance his chance of winning and help him turn this country around.
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