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Seven Reasons Why Newt Still Wins in Florida despite Poor Debate Performance
Various ^ | 29 January 2012 | Vigilanteman(Informed Vanity)

Posted on 01/29/2012 2:15:12 PM PST by Vigilanteman

Despite a bad debate performance in Tampa, Newt Gingrich will still make it over the finish line on Tuesday with about 3% to spare. The primaries will formally continue until at least Super Tuesday, but Gingrich needs to start thinking about the end game of defeating Obama in the fall sooner rather than later.

I don't mean to brag, but I predicted his easy win in South Carolina well before it happened. The only thing I was wrong about was the margin of his win: I predicted 8%. The actual result was 13%.

There are (at least) seven reasons why Newt will win in Florida. I'm giving you those reasons not as a Newt supporter-- I'm actually supporting Rick Santorum-- but as an informed observer.

Reason #1: The Newtzilla Factor. If you don't know what this is, go to the URL in the source. Jonah Goldberg explained it in National Review better than I could possibly hope to do. But if you are too lazy to read his article, the key is that nobody can beat the Newtzilla among conservatives except the Newtzilla himself. He didn't even come close with one sub-par debate performance.

Reason #2: Mitt Romney. He always underperforms his polling. You can argue over the reasons. Some claim it is religion. Others the likability factor. Still others, jealousy of his self-made success. You can pick out evidence to support any of these reasons or more. But it isn't important unless you are working for the Romney campaign and trying to massage his image. The string of elections he's run dating back to Massachussetts 18 years ago only supports this contention. So don't argue with the facts.

Reason #3: Money. Newt does not lack for it. While it might be a different story by the general election, he is not hurting for it now. In fact, when you count all of the Newt friendly PAC money, they have enough to run anti-Romney advertising in Pennsylvania right now. Our primary is not until the end of April. Romney and pro-Romney PAC's have not even started to run advertising here. While this doesn't necessary mean the Romney machine is running out of money, it does mean Newt's backers are not even close to that point.

Reason #4: Florida is still a southern state. Don't get me wrong. It is still one of the big three bellweather states in every presidential election in the last 120 years (Pennsylvania and Ohio being the other two)-- win all three and you cruise to election; win any two of the three and you still limp across the finish line. Florida also has a 20 year longer record of picking GOP nominees than does South Carolina. All of the state is, of course, not Newt's backyard as was South Carolina. But a significant portion of it is. And that is an advantage which Mitt Romney simply cannot claim outside of a few tony enclaves in Dade and Palm Beach counties.

Reason #5: Early voting. At one time, this favored Romney. Then Newtzilla swept through South Carolina. Those planning to vote early swung over to Gingrich in even greater margins than those planning to vote on election day. Most of them have already voted. They can't change their votes now even after Newt's poor debate performance.

Reason #6: National polls. Newt is still leading handily in the national polls, in the 6-8 point range. Florida pretty much mirrors national polls, although I am cutting his margin in half based on the poor Tampa debate performance and more recent polling data.

Reason #7: Immigration. I can't tell what Newt was thinking when he attacked Romney as being too harsh on immigration in Tampa. Mitt earns a pathetic C+ from NumbersUSA and equally mediocre marks from other groups pushing to limit Open Borders policies. Perhaps Newt was making a calculation that he would get more of a bump in a state with a large immigrant population to more than compensate from the backlash he would get from native voters in a state suffering from high unemployment. Perhaps, he was even right. Perhaps not. Such a remark from Rick Perry was the beginning of the end for his campaign just a few short months ago. But the field was crowded with Romney alternatives at that time. Not so now. So I think the damage to Newt will be minimal for the Florida primary, but it could come back to haunt him in the rust belt states. There is no way he is going to outbid Obama for a soft immigration policy in the general election, so he would be wise to apologise for the remarks as soon as possible after he wraps up the win in Florida. This will hurt him temporarily just as the admission on lying about having witnesses ready to counter what his ex-wife said in ABC's gotcha interview. But it won't keep him from getting the nomination.


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: fl2012; mitt; newt; santorum; vanity
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To: BCrago66; CynicalBear; Vigilanteman
"And send Newt some cash, if you can afford it."
Manning the phones wont hurt either.
Join us at The Newt Network

@CynicalBear

…those who support him who will be to blame should we end up with Romney."
And we will damn sure remind then…

@Vigilanteman
PM me, I'd like a friendly (FR Donation) wager!

41 posted on 01/29/2012 5:05:44 PM PST by bksanders (Old Gets Older the Older I Get)
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To: Vigilanteman

I dislike absentee ballots & early voting more & more each day.

Romney has been pandering to the absentee voters——& many votes- over 200,000 have already been cast in Florida before the debates there.

I wonder how many voters would change their vote after Mitt’s tax returns have been perused???

That alone would have changed my vote away from Mitt.


42 posted on 01/29/2012 5:06:56 PM PST by ridesthemiles
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To: Vigilanteman

Santorum is not a viable national alternative, he will not win a national election for President.


43 posted on 01/29/2012 5:15:02 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. Burke)
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To: ckilmer

Have you noticed that when Willard is not spouting off memorized lines and then often glancing down at his notepad, he studders and stammers and acts more like someone who dropped out of jr. high school than a Harvard grad? That’s another area where he’s alot like Barry Soreto. Like those that think Soreto is a rocket scientist, when in fact he’s your averate ghetto jive talking punk he when loses his teleprompter.
Willard the liberal ain’t much smarter. Newt NEVER stammers and studders and sounds like an idiot talking. He speaks with an average cadence, with precise thoughts and you can you can actually understand what he says. Santorum is also a good speaker. Paul speaks like he’s in the early stages of althimers. Romney, half the time, studders and stammers and speaks just like a security guard has just busted him for shoplifting. It’s funny as hell. Listen to him the next time he has to say something off-the-cuff. Its ah, ah, ah, and, and, and, ah, ah, ah.


44 posted on 01/29/2012 5:30:26 PM PST by NKP_Vet (creep.)
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To: Vigilanteman

Well, I live in Florida. Eight votes for Newt on Tuesday in the immediate family. Walked to my neighbors homes, 5 more there. We are doing all we can.


45 posted on 01/29/2012 5:33:21 PM PST by rep-always
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To: Vigilanteman

Oh, one more thing. Eighteen year old daughter in college registered republican this year will be bringing her two best friends, who hate what Obama has done, registered them republicans and is driving them to the polls. So, doing all we can.


46 posted on 01/29/2012 5:35:35 PM PST by rep-always
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To: Vigilanteman

One more thing, were all Americans of Cuban descent and can’t stand socialism/communism. That’s what Obama is all about. Romney is also too liberal.


47 posted on 01/29/2012 5:37:36 PM PST by rep-always
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To: mardi59

Shouldn’t all debates from now on be held in an empty studio? That way, there would be no way for rabid partisans to color the viewers’ evaluation of the candidates’ responses. It might also keep the candidates (and the moderators) from playing to the audience at the expense of thoughtful, reasoned replies.

Just a thought.


48 posted on 01/29/2012 5:46:28 PM PST by Walrus (Big media is the natural enemy of liberty and big media fears Newt Gingrich)
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To: Walrus

Good idea.


49 posted on 01/29/2012 8:07:59 PM PST by Mozilla (Bachmann, Cain, Scott, Brewer, Kobach, DeMint, West, Malkin, Walker, Brownback, Palin and Moran fan)
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To: Apollo5600; fortheDeclaration
Santorum is too generic? Maybe. But last time I checked, a generic Republican candidate was whipping ObaMao soundly. Those who had names and baggage attached to them weren't doing so great.

Oh and the libtards hate Santorum with a passion. Especially the pink mafia. Go to any libtard website to see what they are saying about him. One reason he isn't being slimed is that there just isn't much to slime him with. He is a boring, reliable married family man with fairly predictable conservative positions. IOW, exactly what this country needs right now.

50 posted on 01/29/2012 8:46:03 PM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Steelfish
An Insider Advantage Poll is already showing a tightening race to within the margin of error. And two days still to go. I stand by my prediction: Newt by 3%.
51 posted on 01/29/2012 8:51:04 PM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Vigilanteman

That’s a bold prediction. You’d have national fame if it comes true.


52 posted on 01/29/2012 8:57:52 PM PST by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Vigilanteman
Frankly, Santorum is not going to win the nomination, but he can make sure Romney does.

There are a great deal of fine, conservative family men, that doesn't mean they should become President.

53 posted on 01/29/2012 10:18:20 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. Burke)
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To: Vigilanteman

That’s the problem! If he were more conservative, I’d like him! But I just can’t stand the way he’s treated the other candidates, and I don’t think his platform or his past history justify it. If he had followed Newt’s advice from the start and didn’t treat everyone who was against him like they weren’t really “conservative”, I’d have probably forgiven his various political heresies.


54 posted on 01/30/2012 1:14:24 AM PST by Apollo5600
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To: vortigern

Darned if he didn’t totally put his finger on how Romney is. I’ve also gotten a kick out of this, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9L9A1IMTQo, which has a strong element of truth to it and is therefore hilarious.


55 posted on 01/30/2012 1:33:56 AM PST by Yardstick
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To: All

Also, here’s a more up to date link to Goldberg’s Newtzilla piece:

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/289129/newtzilla-conquers-all-jonah-goldberg


56 posted on 01/30/2012 1:44:05 AM PST by Yardstick
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To: Vigilanteman

exactly right! This is not a horse race where you try to vote for the guy you think will win just so you can say you “won”. Pick the best candidate.... Pick Rick!


57 posted on 01/30/2012 3:08:14 AM PST by Dan.israel.2011 (Israel)
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To: Dan.israel.2011

So long at Rick Santorum and Newt get more votes combined than mittens we should continue to support Rick Santorum because he had less baggage than Newt and is a far more principled conservative that will surely beat Obama in the General election. Ron Paul is funded by George Soros and most of his votes will go third party.


58 posted on 01/30/2012 3:26:21 AM PST by Dan.israel.2011 (I pick Rick Santorum!)
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To: mardi59

Yeah, I agree, While Newt did not do well in the last debate, neither did Romney. The only winner was Santorum, (and maybe Ron Paul for some good laughs).


59 posted on 01/30/2012 9:49:31 AM PST by cookcounty (Newt 2012: ---> Because he got it DONE.)
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To: Vigilanteman
Mitt Romney. He always underperforms his polling. You can argue over the reasons.

I'll add "enthusiasm" to the list of reasons. A significant portion of Romney respondents in a poll are simply unmotivated enough to take themselves to the polls on election day (or early voting). It's one thing to be presented with a list and pick the one you like best, it's entirely another thing to be enthusiastic enough about your choice (either for or against) to go out and vote in a primary.

60 posted on 01/30/2012 10:28:28 AM PST by kevkrom (Note to self: proofread, then post. It's better that way.)
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