Gallup: Romney lead “collapsing” to 10 points nationally (Not a good trend for Romney)

Hotair ^ | 01/20/2012 | Ed Morrissey

[SeekAndFind]

This certainly isn’t the meme a candidate wants the day before a critical primary:

CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE VIDEO

Gallup’s Editor-in-chief Frank Newport appeared on MSNBC to talk about the polling organization’s national tracking poll of the GOP primary race, which is changing rapidly in the last few days of the campaign for South Carolina. Newport said when their new data comes out at 1 pm eastern, “…we’ll see this gap closing more. Romney was up 23 points over Newt Gingrich. Now it will be down about ten points, so clearly things are collapsing.” …

“We have seen more movement, more roller coaster kind of effect this year than any other Republican primary in our history of tracking,” Newport said. “I think anything is possible. It wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility if Romney recovers. We’ll wait and see.”

So how much did the gap close in today’s 1 pm report? This much:

That’s certainly an ugly trend for Romney, and a sign of hope for Gingrich. There are, however, a couple of things to keep in mind about this poll. First, it’s among registered voters, not likely voters, which means that the trends are probably solid but not the figures; likely voter models are more predictive. Second, the ABC interview with Marianne Gingrich didn’t air until after the last surveys in this tracking poll took place. It’s entirely possible that the personal-baggage eruption might have some of Gingrich’s new support rethinking that choice, especially since it appeared in two polls yesterday that evangelicals comprised a large part of that swing.

Nevertheless, the shift has Team Romney worried, and they’re seeing at least some part of it in their own internal polling. CNN reports today that they’re busy resetting expectations in South Carolina:

With Newt Gingrich creeping up in the polls and potentially on the cusp of a South Carolina victory, one of Mitt Romney’s senior advisers sought to change expectations ahead of Saturdays’ pivotal presidential primary.

Though his campaign has competed aggressively in the state and is hungry for a win here, Romney strategist Stuart Stevens said the idea of a loss to Gingrich on Saturday is not far-fetched. …

“The idea should be does he have a chance in South Carolina,” Stevens claimed.

When it was noted that Romney had a 10-point lead over Gingrich as recently as Tuesday, Stevens shook his head.

“These things were always going to close,” he said. “I think it’s very competitive. I think it’s a four-way race. The whole race is very fluid.”

A 10-point lead in a four-man race is still a substantial margin, but it’s the momentum that should worry Romney. His two relatively poor debate performances this week — almost entirely caused by his mishandling of the tax-return issue — has to be a big part of the momentum, which means that they can correct it if Mitt Romney can recover on the question. That may be too late for South Carolina, but he needs to get his act together for Florida. Romney was expected to have it tough tomorrow, but he was expected to cruise in Florida. A tight race there will shake confidence in his ability to close the deal, and that’s another meme that Romney can ill afford now.

Update: Er … Romney’s lead is collapsing to 10 points, not his support. I fixed the headline. Big thanks to the AJC’s Kyle Wingfield for pointing that out. Also, changed “since” to “in today’s” above the graph. And then I got myself more coffee …

[C. Edmund Wright]

Let me translate:
Mitt: tanking fast
Santorum: tanking almost as fast
Newt: rising fast
Paul: rising slowly

[aimhigh]

Romney should have switched parties to run as a Democrat.

[mrsmel]

You’d think he could, he’s not averse to flip-flopping, he already has a good bit of the rat platform, and he has the ego to match Hussein’s, an important rat attribute.

[Sun]

And to think Sen. Lindsey Grahamnesty had Romney winning the first three primaries already on one of last Sunday’s tv morning shows.

[tsowellfan]

More and more Americans are researching Newt and his Solutions for America and they must like what they see.

Romney is a liberal who cannot debate Obama on policy that he himself signed into law in his own state.

[Loyal Sedition]

It is verboten to address Rotney’s religion in any way, I’m not too PC, so I am making this comment regatdless.

Hhere’s a personal observation.
Nevada has seventeen counties.
Each county has several precincts, I do not know the exact total statewide.

I was a precinct captain here in Nevada during the last caucus.
I personally observed that Rotney was the ONLY candidate with the resources to put one of his campaign observers into EVERY caucus room.
There is no way he did that on his own, he could not do that without help from “his” church.

I expect that the same will be true this time, he will “Win” Nevada courtesy of the Mormon Churches inordinate influence here.
Probably the same for Utah.

What will the “Quid-pro-quo” be for this?
Are we really that comfortable with Rotney’s church having that much influence over our secular lives?

STOP Romney!

[MeganC]

Be nice if he drops out so I don’t have to make good on my tagline in November.

[ZX12R]

Romney’s campaign destroyed in two days by Sarah Palin, Jim Robinson, and the Free Republic Rino hunting army.

[dfwgator]

The trend is our friend.

[sergeantdave]

“It’s entirely possible that the personal-baggage eruption might have some of Gingrich’s new support rethinking that choice, especially since it appeared in two polls yesterday that evangelicals comprised a large part of that swing.”

Nope.

The ad showing Romney, in his own words, supporting abortion and being anti-family is killing him in South Carolina. Evangelicals are deserting Romney in droves.

There’s a handful of left-wingers, pretending to be Baptists, calling into talk radio in SC, blubbering that they’ll never vote for Newt because of his marriage “problems.” Everyone laughs at them.

I’m still predicting third place for Romney.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Santorum needs to drop out now. He cannot win, and if he stays in, it will be because he is an even bigger idiot than previously thought. Even Perry figured it out in time to help us beat Romney, Rove and the GOPE.

[Christie at the beach]

Romney ( McCain ) should have switched parties to run as a Democrat.

When Rove’s Romney goes down to not win South Carolina, I will not share one tear for the liberal republicans in the party whom have caused all of this in the first place. No moderates, no Bush turning left any longer. If Bush and Rove would have never turned left, we would never got a Marxist. If Newt gets in, he must remain Conservative at ALL times. If he does that, he will be no other force to deal with. Conservatism would be the perfect message. ( whoever gets in, if they don't turn this nation, around, they will be more hated than Obama)

[yup2394871293]

Democrats are the party of food stamps and free condoms

[Anti-Hillary]

HA!!! I LOVE your tagline. I love those commercials, in particular, the one about not having a grandson with a dog collar.

I have a challenge for you. Write a roadside ditch commercial using Romney.

[sphinx]

FWIW, it’s premature to speak of a “collapse.” This race all along has been Romney vs. a swarm of anti-Romneys who have been splitting the vote. As the field clears, the anti-Romney vote is consolidating and the race is tightening. To be expected.

[ZX12R]

Santorum needs to drop out now. He cannot win, and if he stays in, it will be because he is an even bigger idiot than previously thought. Even Perry figured it out in time to help us beat Romney, Rove and the GOPE.

I agree. And when he does finally, we'll have to start a thread where his supporters here can go and be talked out of suicide, and get psychological help dealing with Newt as FR's guy. The paultards can just go off themselves.

[greeneyes]

I just caught the tail end of a news report and didn't catch the candidate's name. A scheduled campaign stop had inadequate turnout, and was canceled maybe.

Just caught enough to wonder about it, did a google search but didn't find anything.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Santorum needs to drop out now. He cannot win, and if he stays in, it will be because he is an even bigger idiot than previously thought. Even Perry figured it out in time to help us beat Romney, Rove and the GOPE.

[txrangerette]

The same silly, ugly claim was made when Perry made his decision...that his supporters would be on suicide watch.

Didn’t happen.

I don’t think it will happen with Santorum supporters.

That pointless, ugly post was pulled.