Posted on 01/11/2012 7:47:12 PM PST by VinL
ATLANTA -- As the GOP races settles into South Carolina, Mitt Romney isn’t enjoying the double-digit lead he held in New Hampshire, according to a survey conducted Wednesday night.
The former Massachusetts governor’s lead is so small in the Palmetto State that he’s essentially tied with Newt Gingrich, according to a poll for the Savannah Morning News and the Augusta Chronicle conducted by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research.
Romney’s 23 percent and Gingrich’s 21 fall within the 3.6 percent margin of error. Rick Santorum, who came in second in the Iowa caucus is in third place in South Carolina with 14 percent, while Ron Paul, the runner up in New Hampshire, is effectively tied with him at 13.
Jon Huntsman has 7, and Rick Perry has 5 while 17 percent are undecided or favor a candidate not offered as a choice in the survey.
The telephone survey questioned 726 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the South Carolina GOP primary. Voters don’t have to be Republicans to participate in the Jan. 21 balloting, but independents generally make up a small share of the total, according to pollster Matt Towery, president of InsiderAdvantage.
Romney, Gingrich and Paul all do equally well with the independents in the survey. Paul, though, is getting little traction from long-time Republican voters.
Romney does better with female voters while men prefer Gingrich.
“This is not good news for Mitt Romney,” said Towery, who chaired several of Gingrich’s congressional campaigns before becoming a non-partisan pollster. “There is no other way to put it. This means it is a dead-even race. South Carolinians couldn’t care less about New Hampshire or Iowa.”
Romney, on his second try for the nomination, won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary this month, the first non-incumbent Republican to do so. However, those back-to-back wins don’t seem to be giving him overwhelming momentum this far South.
Gingrich represented the western part of neighboring Georgia for 20 years in Congress and apparently knows how to appeal to southern voters who tend to be more concerned about social issues than those in New Hampshire.
The Jan. 21 GOP primary in South Carolina is regarded as the first meaningful contest because of what the results will signal for the party's chances of defeating President Obama in November. Of course, it's also stoking anticipation because of the legendary ruthlessness of the state's political operatives.
Republicans in South Carolina like to remind people that their primary picks presidents, or at least presidential nominees. Since 1980, when Ronald Reagan won 55 percent of the vote, no candidate has captured the Republican nomination for president without notching a win in South Carolina's GOP primary. In the 2008 election, eventual-nominee John McCain won the South Carolina primary with more than 30 percent of the vote, trailed by Iowa winner Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Romney came in fourth in South Carolina with about 15 percent.
This time, the results will be dramatically different, as the state's active Evangelical voting bloc is expected to set aside prejudice in favor of pragmatism. Support among their ranks may signal that they accept Romney, a Mormon, in part for being the candidate largely believed to offer the toughest challenge to President Obama.
Since Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, where Romney steamrolled his rivals with nearly 40 percent of the vote, the candidates have swarmed the Palmetto State. They are stumping at barbecue joints, pharmacies, universities and local government buildings. On Monday, the candidates are scheduled to participate in a debate in Myrtle Beach, hosted by the SCGOP, Fox News Channel, The Wall Street Journal, and Twitter.
Some are seeing the Palmetto State as their last chance to justify their candidacy.
It’s a mystery to you? Really?
Go Newt!!!
Disappointed if Perry doesn’t drop out? His 5% could be going to Newt or Santorum. SC has got to be one of his best states. Isn’t the real question, why is he staying in? To help Myth perhaps??
Hank
I am not a Perry supporter (although I like him), but it’s a mystery to me too. It seems to me that his screw ups should be far enough in the past, that he would be making some progress by now.
Santorum needs to bail out now! He has no chance whatsoever.
Crazy social con.
Ho boy.... I’m super scared of a Myth candidacy, I’m throwing my hat into the Newt ring despite my preferring Santorum.
Make or break time. Gaaaah, I HATE this election cycle.
the thing that stood out to me is that Newt is crushing Romney among blacks 51-1.
One of the very underreported things so far has been the Mormon Church’s history with blacks. It’s not too pretty. I’m sure many blacks are aware of it...and possibly looking to let Romney know how they feel.
I wonder if that has anything to do with Newt’s huge lead and the obvious distaste for Romney.
Be interesting to see if the media catches on to this and starts mentioning it.
If I’m Newt I look at this, and I really go hard after endorsements from Rep Scott, Rep West, and Herman Cain. One or more of them could prove decisive.
Would be ironic if Newt ends up winning SC due to huge #s in the black vote.
I think it’s time for Newt to start playing the race card if he wants to win.
the thing that stood out to me is that Newt is crushing Romney among blacks 51-1.
One of the very underreported things so far has been the Mormon Church’s history with blacks. It’s not too pretty. I’m sure many blacks are aware of it...and possibly looking to let Romney know how they feel.
I wonder if that has anything to do with Newt’s huge lead and the obvious distaste for Romney.
Be interesting to see if the media catches on to this and starts mentioning it.
If I’m Newt I look at this, and I really go hard after endorsements from Rep Scott, Rep West, and Herman Cain. One or more of them could prove decisive. May also explain Newt’s appearance with Clyburn.
Would be ironic if Newt ends up winning SC due to huge #s in the black vote.
I think it’s time for Newt to start playing the race card if he wants to win.
I feel like I’m about to start screaming and won’t be able to stop.
I’m pretty sad about Bolton too. I was hoping he wouldn’t sell out. This is two political cycles. Not a mistake, he’s a sell out. What a shame.
#67 Interesting stats.
actually , just looked at the internals again and i was a bit confused.
I thought it said blacks were 22% of the sample. the 22 was actually the total # of blacks. Out of 720 or so. So they were 3% or so.
I don’t think that’s enough to really matter. But it might be. If Newt can get that up to 5% or more and win them handily it could be the difference if it’s close among white voters.
Thank you.
Lets not forget that Newts’s personal friend, Herman Cain will be endorsing him before SC primary day..
Odds are 99% the endorsement goes to Newt. And the voting black population in SC. will take notice.
The rest of us think the Iowa and New Hampshire votes are worth a bucket of warm piss. Maybe someday these morons will change their election laws and have a credible primary.
I too was astonished at the huge spread for Newt among blacks vs Romney and wondered about the reasons, then I realized it included a whopping total of 22 of them surveyed. Can’t safely draw any conclusions there.
Cain just said today he probably won’t endorse anyone. He said he doesn’t want to upset any of his supporters who may support someone else.
Didnt Cain just say he was going to endorse next week while on Fox News tonight?
“Romney’s day just got better. John Bolton has endorsed Romney. He announced on Greta.....damn.”
Actually, probably 1 in 10,000 people know who John Bolton is...
http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/cain-will-not-endorse-1299792.html
apparently he changed his mind.
“Hammer on “crony capitalism” - and wait for Sarah Palin to show up— which I think she will.”
I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one. I saw her on Hannity tonight. She thinks the guys using the Bain Capital attack strategy are on the wrong track.
But I liked the clip on Greta later, before she interviewed Newt, of a supporter at his town hall who told him he thought Newt should back off the current Bain attacks and get back to hammering Romney on his phony conservatism - to which Newt answered that he absolutely agreed with him.
There is just SO much to legitimately attack Romney on without going down the road or appearing to attack capitalism - so many things to go after that all conservatives can rally around. I’m glad that Newt’s now being pragmatic - too bad that Perry’s decided to double down.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed for Newt in SC.
That damned Ron Paul. (Just thought I’d throw that in for good measure :-)
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