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Posted on 01/11/2012 7:47:12 PM PST by VinL
ATLANTA -- As the GOP races settles into South Carolina, Mitt Romney isn’t enjoying the double-digit lead he held in New Hampshire, according to a survey conducted Wednesday night.
The former Massachusetts governor’s lead is so small in the Palmetto State that he’s essentially tied with Newt Gingrich, according to a poll for the Savannah Morning News and the Augusta Chronicle conducted by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research.
Romney’s 23 percent and Gingrich’s 21 fall within the 3.6 percent margin of error. Rick Santorum, who came in second in the Iowa caucus is in third place in South Carolina with 14 percent, while Ron Paul, the runner up in New Hampshire, is effectively tied with him at 13.
Jon Huntsman has 7, and Rick Perry has 5 while 17 percent are undecided or favor a candidate not offered as a choice in the survey.
The telephone survey questioned 726 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the South Carolina GOP primary. Voters don’t have to be Republicans to participate in the Jan. 21 balloting, but independents generally make up a small share of the total, according to pollster Matt Towery, president of InsiderAdvantage.
Romney, Gingrich and Paul all do equally well with the independents in the survey. Paul, though, is getting little traction from long-time Republican voters.
Romney does better with female voters while men prefer Gingrich.
“This is not good news for Mitt Romney,” said Towery, who chaired several of Gingrich’s congressional campaigns before becoming a non-partisan pollster. “There is no other way to put it. This means it is a dead-even race. South Carolinians couldn’t care less about New Hampshire or Iowa.”
Romney, on his second try for the nomination, won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary this month, the first non-incumbent Republican to do so. However, those back-to-back wins don’t seem to be giving him overwhelming momentum this far South.
Gingrich represented the western part of neighboring Georgia for 20 years in Congress and apparently knows how to appeal to southern voters who tend to be more concerned about social issues than those in New Hampshire.
The Jan. 21 GOP primary in South Carolina is regarded as the first meaningful contest because of what the results will signal for the party's chances of defeating President Obama in November. Of course, it's also stoking anticipation because of the legendary ruthlessness of the state's political operatives.
Republicans in South Carolina like to remind people that their primary picks presidents, or at least presidential nominees. Since 1980, when Ronald Reagan won 55 percent of the vote, no candidate has captured the Republican nomination for president without notching a win in South Carolina's GOP primary. In the 2008 election, eventual-nominee John McCain won the South Carolina primary with more than 30 percent of the vote, trailed by Iowa winner Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Romney came in fourth in South Carolina with about 15 percent.
This time, the results will be dramatically different, as the state's active Evangelical voting bloc is expected to set aside prejudice in favor of pragmatism. Support among their ranks may signal that they accept Romney, a Mormon, in part for being the candidate largely believed to offer the toughest challenge to President Obama.
Since Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, where Romney steamrolled his rivals with nearly 40 percent of the vote, the candidates have swarmed the Palmetto State. They are stumping at barbecue joints, pharmacies, universities and local government buildings. On Monday, the candidates are scheduled to participate in a debate in Myrtle Beach, hosted by the SCGOP, Fox News Channel, The Wall Street Journal, and Twitter.
Some are seeing the Palmetto State as their last chance to justify their candidacy.
The Bain stuff did NOT back fire. The proof was in the NH pudding. Mitty was supposed to hit 50%. He did not.
Auditioning for the ticket-balancer slot for a Romney nominee all primary debate season, Santorum is a W-style big gov't Republican without the personal charm or executive experience. Folks are being swept away by his social focus while ignoring his record and proposals.
Time to brace for four more years of Obama and attempt to salvage the House congressional majority for another two years.
Somewhat encouraging?
The Romney 9 million hit on Gingrich in Iowa is wearing off already. Just like last election, Romney has to spend huge amounts per vote.
Now Gingrich’s ads are hitting and he has already caught Romney and we’ve barely started in South Carolina.
I pulled out the electoral map and there is no way Romney is going to win this primary. he’ll get swamped in the South.
Gingrich will get his footing in a close SC win and then route Myth in Florida where it is a closed primary.
Newt’s job is to take down Mittens. This is ckear to me, if Newt bows out and endorses Rick Santorum they will crush Mittens. Newt has too much baggage to win the general election. Rick Santorum is rock solid and will be the candidate that conservatives can go to work for in the general election.
Generally, it is the low vote getter coming out of SC, that bows out.
That would be Santorum at a fading 14.
Gingrich/Santorum a possible.
I have actually been thinking that Santorum would probably support Romney, too. One thing nobody looks at, simply because they were so thrilled with his social positions, is the fact that his tenure in the Senate was characterized by going along to get along and he never seems to have objected to anything in GOP establishment policies. So I think he’d be a Romney supporter.
I agree that Perry, whose views are closest to those of Gingrich, would probably side with Gingrich.
That said, I really hope that SC is the beginning of the end for Romney. I think Rush actually did Gingrich a favor by criticizing him so bizarrely for the Bain ads, because it actually made people look at them and seriously ask some questions about Romney and his truthfulness or lack thereof.
Perry is screwing Santorum out of the sizeable majority of the Evangelical vote. Santorum’s Evangelical Support appears to be at 65%, Newt 20%, and Perry 15%. The fact that Newt rose, Santorum fell, but Newt hasn’t overtaken Romney means that Newt is still trailing Romney when it comes to those 08 voters.
I’m telling you, Newt would much prefer to have Santorum remain in a strong position where the both of them would finish ahead of Romney is SC. However, Perry’s 5% will be enough to derail Santorum, and it could be enough to derail some of Newt’s support for the military retirees in Horry County and along the coast.
Rick Perry needs to exit the race. He is playing spoiler. If all he can gain are Santorum’s Evangelical base, he’ll still be distant 3rd by next Saturday. There’s no point in him continuing.
You are obviously among the many people in the country who know nothing at all about Rick Perry.
If they did they would be voting for him.
While we sit around arguing about which of our candidates has the FEWEST faults, we ignore a candidate who has almost none.
If you think Perry is staying in to support Mitt Romney you are a conspiracy theorist of the worst sort.
Perry is the most conservative of the lot. He would never support Mitt.
Where are you in Newport News? I live between Hilton Village and the Mariners Museum. Nice to know there is a fellow FReeper!
Rick Santorum is only in this by the fluke of winning a caucus. Which he only won by living in Iowa for months.
He’s not as true a conservative as Perry.
I say that Santorum is the spoiler taking the Evangelical (whatever that is) vote from a far better candidate.
I guess you would like for everyone to bow out but your candidate.
All this wailing for somebody to drop out (usually Perry) is nothing but silly whining.
I can’t believe Perry is behind Huntsman in the south. Disappointing.
Maybe because he stammers and pauses almost as much as Obama and he’s very quick to jump to the rhetoric of the left: “..against in-state tuition for illegals...you have no heart”, “vulture capitalist”.
You are mistaken. I don’t have anything against Perry. But claiming sour grapes isn’t going to make his situation change any better.
First, yeah, Santorum camped out in IA and was the last man standing. But don’t overlook the fact that Perry had the money, cash, and organization to blanket the airwaves as well, and still came in 4th. He did himself enormous damage in the debates. For this reason, the voters moved on. He isn’t going to win the SC. The best he is looking at is to finish ahead of Ron Paul in 4th. It’s over for him. I don’t have anything against him, but the fact is the longer he stays in the race, all he is going to do is ciphon off votes, even if it’s only 4-5%.
You mustn’t have read my posts. Gingrich wants Santorum to stay in. The best case scenario in SC is that Gingrich recaptures the percentage of 08 McCain voters he lost and Santorum does well with Evangelicals in the NW, pushing Romney to 3rd. This could be a template that the two of them use for going forward where they both could survive.
Santorum is NOT a spoiler in regards to Perry. If you’ve got a problem with the voters in SC, NH, or IA, take it up with them. A clear majority of them have supported Santorum over Perry and will probably continue to do so.
It’s over for Perry. He could have gotten out and thrown what was left of his money, network, and organization to Newt or Santorum, but has chosen not to. His continued candidacy helps no one.
I would have voted for Sarah in a heartbeat, but counting on her is probably not our best bet. I’m guessing she will sit this out, and accept Romney, before she would jump in, and take him out.
REally? Well, I think that about says it all doesn’t it?
“Lets not forget that Newts’s personal friend, Herman Cain will be endorsing him before SC primary day..”
Did you see him earlier tonight on Hannity? He said he’s not going to endorse any one candidate - said it wouldn’t be fair - but will support whomever the nominee is because he’s still working to help get rid of BHO.
(I gotta think he favors Newt, though :-)
My problem is that we’ve put our money and votes on the wrong candidate.
I can go along with Newt and he probably has the best chance of winning. He would be a quixotic president but an interesting and mainly conservative one.
I get queasy thinking of Santorum going up against Obama.
It’s one sissy looking many against another.
I shouldn’t say that, as it is mean, and I know Santorum is probably a decent guy but he is very ineffectual looking and vulnerable. Why did he lose the senate race so overwhelmingly. Can he win his own state.
And please explain sour grapes to me. Some of the grapes are sour, so why shouldn’t I point that out?
Yes, Perry could have gotten out, but he was being true to himself and his supporters. People didn’t give him money so that he could support Santorum or Gingrich.
They gave him money because they wanted him.
And, by the way, nobody gives their ‘money’ to another candidate. He will give his support to somebody and it will probably be Gingrich, since they are standing together on the Romney/Bain thing.
That damned Ron Paul. (Just thought I’d throw that in for good measure :-)
***
Tell, ya, we’d better watch Ron Paul. If he doesn’t get the nom, his punky little supporters are going to run, not walk to Obama if Paul doesn’t go third party. They could be the true spoilers in the general.
I hope whomever gets the GOP nom has a strategy for them. They are the hugest fools in this whole story.
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