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Why Does Rick Perry Think He Can Win South Carolina?
TPM ^ | January 5, 2012 | Evan McMorris-Santoro

Posted on 01/07/2012 1:40:13 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

After his embarrassing result in Iowa, Rick Perry seemed to get the message the polls have been sending him for months: Republican voters just aren’t that into him. On caucus night, said he’d go back to Texas and figure out what comes next.

But within hours, Perry was sprinting into South Carolina, to make at least one more stand.

Given that the TPM Poll Average shows Perry pulling just 4.8% support in the state, a clear question arises: What on earth is he thinking?

The answer is, team Perry really thinks they can make it happen in South Carolina. The campaign says it really is all-in in the Palmetto State.

“At the end of the day, Gov. Perry is the only Washington outsider in this race, and the only candidate proposing real, substantive conservative reforms that will overhaul Washington, get America working again, and reintroduce fiscal sanity,” spokesperson Liz Mair told me. “Those are key attributes that South Carolina voters care about, especially fiscal, social and Tea Party conservatives who make up a sizable chunk of the electorate in the Palmetto State.”

Perry, of course, has made government reform a huge part of his agenda. He wants a part time Congress, he wants to cut lawmakers’ salaries, he wants to eliminate departments. It’s the kind of thing that supporters say could really resonate in South Carolina.

Mitt Romney’s new surrogate, Sen. John McCain, has been making that case out a line against Rick Santorum in South Carolina, where he points out that unlike the state’s senators, Santorum was pretty friendly to earmarks.

“I think it’s wrong for America and so does Sen. DeMint and so does Sen. Lindsey Graham who have been staunch fighters against earmark and pork barrel spending,” McCain told the South Carolina crowd. “And I know you’re proud of that.”

Indeed, South Carolina Republicans have a long history of backing the kind of candidates who want to turn their government upside down. Gov. Mark Sanford (R), who was popular before he took that Appalachian Trail trip, once brought live piglets down to the state house to protest what he said was the porky ways of state lawmakers.

But if Perry really thinks he can ride this wave in South Carolina, that tactic hasn’t yet been evidenced yet. His first ad in the state is a retread of a bio spot [Values] from November that doesn’t even mention his government reform plan.

But it does mention something else Perry backers say plays well in South Carolina: his military background and Christianity. Unlike New Hampshire, where Molly Ball showed how hard it can be for a values candidate to make a connection, South Carolina is a land where mixing in some ol’ time religion into your stump speech is very much appreciated in a lot of places. In addition, the state is home to a lot of veterans and active-duty military. Perry is a vet himself, and can speak their language, too.

The combo went down very well for Perry in South Carolina in months past. In August, I spent a couple days following Perry around the state. He was so famous back then a guy literally stopped on his way to pick up his wife who was going into labor to have her talk to Perry on a cell phone.

So, Perry’s dialing up South Carolina voters again. And he’s betting the house that they’ll still enthusiastically pick up the call.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: conservatism; family; jobs; perry2012; robertritchie; singledigitperry; stalkinghorse
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To: John Valentine

Well I don’t agree with bashing Perry either. Nobody should be bashing Rick, Rick, or Newt. This is what they want us to do. I guess when Romney gets the nomination because WE (yes me too) acted like idiots during this primary season, we will regret being nasty toward the other candidates. Why not say, “Perry is my candidate because.....” instead of saying “Santorum is weak and is going no where?” It does not make sense at all.


101 posted on 01/07/2012 8:33:07 AM PST by napscoordinator (Go Rick! Go Rick! Go Newt! Let's get 'er done.)
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To: sam_paine
Rick Perry was a C-130 pilot. Idiots cannot be rated multi-engine. Period. So sick of this “Bush is an idiot” and “Perry is an idiot” because they talk funny. Damn! Perry’s dad farmed cotton. You don’t run tractors and harvesters for a lifetime without losing limbs or life if you’re an idiot. Tractors flip over on people every day. He’s an avid marksman and hunter. He never shot his foot off or anything (like shooting a reporter in the face...well,) Santorum is a friggin LAWYER. His dad was a psychologist. Newt’s a friggin PERFESSER. Romeny’s dad was another damn POLITICIAN. Romney and Newt were draft dodgers. I mean, come. on. folks!? I admit that the entire GOP roster is lame, but for Pete’s sake, at least Perry is a real man. Someone I wouldn’t be afraid to hand a nailgun to or a circular saw building a house....the rest aren’t competent to hang curtains much less command the most powerful (but shrinking) armed forces this world has ever known.

This gets my vote as "best post of the month"!

102 posted on 01/07/2012 8:56:16 AM PST by JoeGar
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To: tsowellfan

Of course. Romney isn’t dumb, he knows that if the conservative vote is split in SC and he wins a narrow plurality like McInsane, he’s the nominee. I bet he had something to do with Perry miraculously deciding to stay in.


103 posted on 01/07/2012 8:57:32 AM PST by PAConservative1
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

BO and MO look absolutely in pain when placing their hands over their hearts for the pledge to the flag. Perry looks confident and proud, as does the other man to the far left.


104 posted on 01/07/2012 9:13:26 AM PST by thecodont
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To: sam_paine

Rick Perry was a C-130 pilot. Idiots cannot be rated multi-engine. Period.

So sick of this “Bush is an idiot” and “Perry is an idiot” because they talk funny.


I agree with this comment, and i think Perry talks just fine, yet if talk really had anything to do with it i am reminded that talk is the cheapest thing in the world, Perry is more prone to action than talk.


105 posted on 01/07/2012 9:39:38 AM PST by ravenwolf (reIf you believe that Nero was the anti-Christ, and among othJust a bit of the long list of proofsre)
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To: Lynne
MM said that SC is the first real major test of the candidates. I’m afraid that since SC is an open primary, many Dems will try to skew the results.

Because it's an open primary and because Obama doesn't need them to vote for him in an primary, many Democrats will skew the results to Romney, and you'll have the libertarians out for Paul. I expect that Paul and Romney will get a combined 45% - 50% of the vote.

Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, Perry, Huntsman in that order, with maybe Paul and Gingrich swapping places. Perry and Huntsman are the only ones that really underperformed the polling in Iowa, but I think they'll match the current polling with Bachmann out.
106 posted on 01/07/2012 9:41:16 AM PST by af_vet_rr
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To: deport

One important fact/detail is that this was legislation passed almost unanimously by the Texas legislature in 2001 by a vote of 177 - 4. Thus it was the will of the people of Texas via their elected body. And another fact/detail that some seem to forget is ... “State’s Rights”.


Makes sense, thanks.


107 posted on 01/07/2012 9:47:46 AM PST by ravenwolf (reIf you believe that Nero was the anti-Christ, and among othJust a bit of the long list of proofsre)
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To: edpc

The point wasn’t lost, as my first sentence in response demonstrates. Perry isn’t going to be around to get my vote in the OH primary.


Same here, but if he is around he will get it and that is a fact..


108 posted on 01/07/2012 9:51:03 AM PST by ravenwolf (reIf you believe that Nero was the anti-Christ, and among othJust a bit of the long list of proofsre)
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To: napscoordinator

Thanks for your reply.

I have tried to put forward positive reasons why I prefer Perry of the candidates before us. With a different slate, he might not be my favorite, but that’s not what we are faced with. There are others on these fora, one comes to mind preeminently who are better armed with facts and figures - and reference links - than I am. So what I find myself doing is trying to set the record straight and going after the gratuitous bashes, most of whom don’t even bother to state who they are for except in their taglines. Mostly they like to go on about how stupid Perry supporters are, or how stupid Perry is, or that we are excusers of criminality - just like Perry is. And none of it is done with any subtlety or understanding of the reality of life in Texas. And it is often done using language of uncompromising viciousness.

It kind of irks me and sets me off. But I do not think I have ever gone to Santorum thread and gratuitously dumped on Santorum, or even done so on a Pro-Romeny thread (but that’s probably because there aren’t any).

Anyway, to repeat, thanks for your post.


109 posted on 01/07/2012 9:54:31 AM PST by John Valentine (Deep in the Heart of Texas)
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To: Allegra
Photobucket
110 posted on 01/07/2012 10:04:09 AM PST by smoothsailing
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To: Cincinatus' Wife; LucyT; Red Steel
Perry has to hang on long enough _past_ the SC primacy to spring the Arpaio posse eligibility trap on Obama!

Arpaio has just announced that he will be heading up the Perry campaign in AZ.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2829760/posts

Neither Arpaio nor Perry would be sticking their necks out by supporting each other if they didn't have something up their sleeves, IMO.

I do _not_ believe that it is coincidental that Arpaio has also announced that his “shocking” eligibility findings by is posse will be made public in early February.

111 posted on 01/07/2012 10:17:51 AM PST by Seizethecarp
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To: sam_paine

Absolutely. The media, talking heads, and GOP Establishment have been running the show for a while. I do have to admit that when they’re on the same page, they’re a force to be reckoned with.

But let’s make up our own minds. Let’s look at their records and not just listen to their latest talking points. Obama promised the world but what did he actually do? So it is with these guys, how many walk the walk and not just talk the talk?


112 posted on 01/07/2012 10:26:54 AM PST by Kenny
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To: World'sGoneInsane
And...many have not even made up their minds yet.

Correct. I think the reason this primary season has been a roller coaster is because the voters saw they actually could influence the election with their vote. Cain was the first solid evidence of that and the people have been flexing their muscle since. I say go for it, pick who you want for President, polls and pundits be damned!

113 posted on 01/07/2012 10:30:36 AM PST by Kenny
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To: Kenny; tsowellfan
...I'm not so sure Romney would take it even if he won NH & SC. The people are finally understanding they are allowed to change their mind before the actual election.

In talking with some "moderate" Pubs over Christmas they were shocked when I pointed out there are a lot of Pro-Life Christians who will not vote for Romney in the general election. The answer I got was "if he's the nominee who else would they vote for?". You would have thought their heads would explode when I said, "we just won't vote for POTUS".

I don't see how Romney wins the general election. He is so similar to obama, conservatives will not be fired up. One indicator of this is the turnout in IA. Pubs did not turn out for the caucuses in greater numbers than 08. If voters don't quickly recognize that Perry is the real deal we will end up with a inside the beltway candidate. I will vote for Santorum or Gingrich if Perry is not on the ballot, but I really want the outsider with experience as a Gov.

114 posted on 01/07/2012 10:47:58 AM PST by wmfights (PERRY 2012)
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To: sam_paine; Cincinatus' Wife; Apollo5600; Darkwolf377; ziravan; Berlin_Freeper; ...
...at least Perry is a real man.

It's probably the first thing about Perry that caught my attention. He has those values we see in a lot of people in "fly over country". What I mean is God, family, country. Right now it's not looking good but then again we haven't had a red state vote yet.

115 posted on 01/07/2012 10:59:29 AM PST by wmfights (PERRY 2012)
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To: sam_paine

I’m not a Perry fan and I still like your post.


116 posted on 01/07/2012 10:59:49 AM PST by Dagnabitt ("None of the above" ain't running.)
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To: txrangerette

Let me try to make this simple for you. The “children” are going to benefit from their parents’ criminal act. That is an “impeccable fact” and that is “logic”.
You’ve been a Perry rooter from the git go so spare me your song and dance. Like all fanatics you refuse to see the holes in your hero’s armor.


117 posted on 01/07/2012 11:14:34 AM PST by Scotsman will be Free (11C - Indirect fire, infantry - High angle hell - We will bring you, FIRE)
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To: Kenny
I say go for it, pick who you want for President, polls and pundits be damned!

Absolutely! Romney is not running a campaign, it is a propaganda machine.

We are being told by politicians from both sides, the MSM, and those too blind to see that Romney will be the nominee.

Some people on the street being interviewed do not even know who is running yet! Others have swallowed the kool-aid and murmur, "well I guess Romney will be our nominee."

There was one caucus held. That did not turn out as expected. So what makes any one think that this is even close to being over. This is a marathon.

The new threat is that if we have a true competition, we are giving it to Romney. If Romney is not elected, we will have Obama.

It is all propaganda. We vote--then there is a winner! That is what America is all about.

118 posted on 01/07/2012 11:36:06 AM PST by World'sGoneInsane (We Can Take OUR Country Back--Perry 2012)
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To: sam_paine

Great post!

Thanks.


119 posted on 01/07/2012 11:37:45 AM PST by Chasaway (Where are we going and why am I in this handbasket?)
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To: ravenwolf

Like the man said:

“You don’t build a reputation on what you say you’re going to do.”


120 posted on 01/07/2012 11:40:13 AM PST by Chasaway (Where are we going and why am I in this handbasket?)
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