Posted on 01/05/2012 6:57:35 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Explain a few things to me. One: Why did he announce publicly last night that he was “reassessing” if he truly hadn’t decided to quit yet? If you want to push the talking point that Iowa doesn’t mean anything and that the real race begins in South Carolina, then push it. Don’t show everyone that the caucuses have left you so badly shaken that you’re thinking of getting out. And if that was simply a ploy to give him an excuse to skip campaigning in New Hampshire, where he has no shot, then why immediately turn around this morning and announce that you’re back in? (“I was out on the trail when it kind of came to me.”) Lie low for a few days as the New Hampshire scrum gets going and then announce that you’re back in and headed for Carolina. Even some of his advisors are confused about the reversal: “It seemed like everything was going to wind down and life was gonna be good, and now there’s an explosion and I don’t know what’s going on.”
Two: He says in the clip that he’s looking forward to a primary with real Republicans, not the Democratic infiltrators for which Iowa is known. But … South Carolina’s an open primary. If you want to make mischief for a conservative, it’s probably easier to do it there than in Iowa. And even if Iowa’s teeming with independents and liberals, how did that hurt Perry last night? Ron Paul was the big beneficiary of the non-Republican vote and surely will be again in South Carolina. Perry’s problem isn’t squishes lining up to torpedo him, it’s conservatives who have given up on him after one too many goofs. What he’s really saying here, I take it, is that he’s looking forward to a primary of southerners, which is fair enough — but then so is the guy who beat him out for fourth place last night.
Three: How does he win South Carolina? The Times has a theory:
While the campaign spent millions of dollars in Iowa, Mr. Perry may still have enough money to compete effectively in South Carolina, where television is less expensive than in New Hampshire and Florida, and his super PAC will likely provide additional firepower. While Mr. Perry will probably need to reboot his fund-raising to raise enough money to compete strongly in Florida’s primary on Jan. 31, his supporters believe the results in Iowa, however inauspicious for Mr. Perry, showed a hunger among Republicans for a more conservative alternative to Mr. Romney.
“Think how early we are in the process,” said a person with knowledge of the campaign, who asked for anonymity in order to discuss deliberations among Mr. Perry’s aides. “The reality is, not one delegate was committed yesterday. We are still early enough in the process that if the candidate has the drive to go forward, he ought to.”
“If we can get this back to a Perry versus Romney field,” the person said, “Perry can win.”
If he does well there, he’ll burst Santorum’s bubble, finish off Gingrich, and lay to rest whatever remains of Huntsman’s campaign after his likely defeat in New Hampshire. But that all depends on how well Santorum does in NH, of course. If Santorum gets a major bounce from Iowa and finishes a respectable second to Mitt up north, he’ll arrive in South Carolina as the presumptive social-con Not Romney, which makes things very hard for Perry. Perry fans, in fact, are now in the strange position of needing a Romney landslide next Tuesday to prove that Santorum’s a paper tiger whom South Carolinians shouldn’t bother taking a chance on.
And even if that Romney landslide happens, that’s dangerous too. The big rap on Mitt is that he has a low ceiling because most of the party hates him, but once there’s solid proof to the contrary of that in some state, it might shake loose undecideds elsewhere. Plus, Romney will have Nikki Haley campaigning for him in South Carolina, so if he shows up with lots of momentum, lots of endorsements, and a four-way split among the Not Romney vote, I wonder if he ends up winning there and suddenly looks so inevitable that no one can catch him even in a two-way race. That is to say, the assumption all along has been that anyone in the field (except Ron Paul) has a good shot of taking Romney out head to head. But maybe not. Maybe, if Romney runs the table early, the media buzz about inevitability and electability becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy in which even undecideds who prefer Perry or Santorum ideologically choose to opt for the guy with all the money and organization who can beat O. And on top of all that, for Perry to come back in South Carolina would be unprecedented: Since 1980, everyone who won there had also won in either Iowa or New Hampshire. Perry finished a distant fifth in the former and will do similarly in the latter. Are those long odds good enough to justify continuing, knowing that his participation will deepen the split in the conservative vote and inadvertently help Romney?
Next debate is Saturday night, by the way. Yesterday that looked like it was going to be an “everyone against Romney” affair, but with Perry back in and eager to take Santorum down, Mitt now has himself an unlikely ally.
As I understand it, Perry’s main campaign weapons have always been lots of cash and big push to suck the oxygen from his competitors. We saw that when he tried to usurp the Iowa caucus a year ago and his follow on juggernaut of push polling and press releases.
If this pres. campaign had not gotten underway so early, he might have pulled it off. Instead, Texans have been very effective in making all of us aware of who Perry is. Perry also had the advantage of the media trying to ignore Santorum and Backmann.
About six months ago the Perry express began to lose steam. Certainly the “oops” moment was a big negative for him. He was not doing well in the so-called debates anyway. Then along came Cain. First actual conservative to emerge from the primary fog. He imploded. This opened the door for Newt. He imploded for a number of reasons: 1. He’s part of the political elite who facilitated the usurping of the WH by Onada. 2. Serial philanderer. 3. He was compromised by his appearance with Pelosi on the love seat in a pro global warming add. 4. He was further compromised by Pelosi’s statement that she had plenty of dirt on Newt. Translation: I have him by the b**** and will control him.
Then comes the second Iowa Caucus—remember
Conservative Bachmann won the first one. Santorum wins big, Romney wins small. A conservative is at the head of the pack—again. NH is next. Unless something really extraordinary happens RINO Romney will take it. Nothing new there. Changes nothing with regard to Santorum who will probably take SC primary. He’s already seeing a big bump in fund raising. SC will add to that monemtum. The only unknown out there is if he has a dark side to be exposed—a la Cain. It will have to be very provable and nasty as I don’t think most conservative, some Pubbie and some independent voters will buy into inuendo and the usual “gotcha” nonsense this time around.
That said, Santorum must separate himself from the RINOs by attacking The Usurping Marxist Onada head on. Every opportunity must be used to attack Onada. Every question he gets—especially in the goofy debates—should be turned into an attack on Onada.
In other words, he needs to ignore the RINO three Stooges and begin his presidential campaign. If he does not have the courage to say the obvious about Onada and his policies he will seriously hurt his presidential prospects. If he allows his campaign to be driven by the spin meisters he will be spun.
This strategy will assure his conservative base. I believe it will ultimately draw in a significasnt number of indies. And as the presidential race shapes up as a fight between Santorum and Onada the poll numbers will shift in favor of Santorum. This will ultimately draw in RINOs as well as they see tying their future to Onada a dead end. The main thing that drives most RINOs is their place at the public trough. They will go with who they perceive to be the winner.
If this scenario does not play out I believe the GOP convention will be brokered. The outcome will determine whether or not the national GOP reasserts itself as an opposition party to the demrat party or remains controlled by the demrat party.
We are on the threshhold of a second American Reovolution. Whether it is peaceful or violent remains to be seen.
I wouldn’t rip Santorum, but I seriously doubt he will appeal to the main stream voters who will be voting in the general election. He’s just too pius and sanctimonious to win big with anyone except die hard take-no-prisoners conservatives. Not saying that’s all bad, just reality.
The republicans in the SC legislature want to run
Nikki Haley out of town on a rail. She’s done nothing as governor but piss people off, mostly in her own party. Her
approval rating in the state is around 30%. Her endorsement of the liberal Morman was the last straw.
Newt has been endorsed by most of the influential republicans in the state. Newt Gingrich will win SC going away. Perry will go back to Texas for good after the SC primary.
Excellent post Fryingpan101. I solidly agree on all points. Perry in 2012!
Thank for pointing what a lot of debate watchers and critics don’t know.
Not leadership qualities to be sure.
I really doubt he can do better than third. I wish him luck though.
Yesterday Paul attacked Romney, saying ‘why would we nominate someone who’d lose to Obama’. Article on Drudge. I think IBD is the source.
So am I, Ricky. Sadly, it’s just not to be.
Totally agree. I am hoping he starts getting notice from others.
I’ve met him twice in this campaign and he did seem snobbish, my personal opinion. What he says about Iowans
not being Real Republicans I think confirms my opinion.
In my county Mitt never even placed but we’re not Republican? Do you think that if Perry started out with very little money like Santorum (not stuck on him) that he would have even run. Dream on!
Is Perry’s chances the same as Buddy Roemers? I’m still crossing my fingers Buddy can still win.
You have stated it well.
I fear for the worst.
Well said Charles
Newt Gingrich will win SC going away. Perry will go back to Texas for good after the SC primary.
Looks plausible.
Be sure to write to your state delegate and senator, and to Bob McDonnell, expressing your dissappointment that YOU, the voter, are being disenfranchised by rules that gave you no say in who made the ballot.
Point out in your e-mails that the state, and the RPV, provided no method for you to make your opinion known, and that it is wrong to punish the voters and limit their choices because of the failure of the candidates.
Conclude by noting that this isn’t a game, that the rules are not devine proclamations, and that it is simply wrong to deny the voters of Virginia, and you specifically, the ability to vote for a clearly viable candidate of your choice.
I will be writing an op-ed on this next week. I’ve turned 180 on the subject myself, once I realized it wasn’t about what was “fair” to the candidates, but what was RIGHT for the voters. Elections aren’t a game that people “win” by exploiting the rules, they are serious matters, especially this election. A stupid rule poorly enforced should not stand in the way of picking the best President for our country — that is both foolish AND absurd.
I'm looking forward to a REAL conservative entering the race.
very good advice, and I intend to take it. Thank you.
“Dream on!”
I don’t know if mind your opinion so much as your harsh criticism of a man who has taken the right steps the entire journey of his life thus far. He screwed up by not scheduling a surgery much earlier or much later. I’m sure you know what pain medication does and how pain controls your energy level. No excuses, sir.
That said, I have to tell you straight out. Santorum is not a leader at this point in his life. At best, he’s a good Catholic, a good family man, an ex-Senator, and a good citizen. I like him a lot. Always have. I like his wife. Except for the Senator part, my life is filled with, either thru Italian family or associations, hundreds of great guy Rick Santorums. Isn’t yours?
As far as Governor Perry’s decision to seek the presidency. Years before Rick Santorum ever stepped into the equation , Governor Perry would always have considered the presidency as a natural next step while he was still in politics. The support money would always have been available to him.
You know Iowa. It wasn’t personal. Everyone knows Iowa is quirky.
“Methinks he will crash like Icarus. ;^)”
Hahahaha!
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