Posted on 01/05/2012 6:57:35 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Explain a few things to me. One: Why did he announce publicly last night that he was “reassessing” if he truly hadn’t decided to quit yet? If you want to push the talking point that Iowa doesn’t mean anything and that the real race begins in South Carolina, then push it. Don’t show everyone that the caucuses have left you so badly shaken that you’re thinking of getting out. And if that was simply a ploy to give him an excuse to skip campaigning in New Hampshire, where he has no shot, then why immediately turn around this morning and announce that you’re back in? (“I was out on the trail when it kind of came to me.”) Lie low for a few days as the New Hampshire scrum gets going and then announce that you’re back in and headed for Carolina. Even some of his advisors are confused about the reversal: “It seemed like everything was going to wind down and life was gonna be good, and now there’s an explosion and I don’t know what’s going on.”
Two: He says in the clip that he’s looking forward to a primary with real Republicans, not the Democratic infiltrators for which Iowa is known. But … South Carolina’s an open primary. If you want to make mischief for a conservative, it’s probably easier to do it there than in Iowa. And even if Iowa’s teeming with independents and liberals, how did that hurt Perry last night? Ron Paul was the big beneficiary of the non-Republican vote and surely will be again in South Carolina. Perry’s problem isn’t squishes lining up to torpedo him, it’s conservatives who have given up on him after one too many goofs. What he’s really saying here, I take it, is that he’s looking forward to a primary of southerners, which is fair enough — but then so is the guy who beat him out for fourth place last night.
Three: How does he win South Carolina? The Times has a theory:
While the campaign spent millions of dollars in Iowa, Mr. Perry may still have enough money to compete effectively in South Carolina, where television is less expensive than in New Hampshire and Florida, and his super PAC will likely provide additional firepower. While Mr. Perry will probably need to reboot his fund-raising to raise enough money to compete strongly in Florida’s primary on Jan. 31, his supporters believe the results in Iowa, however inauspicious for Mr. Perry, showed a hunger among Republicans for a more conservative alternative to Mr. Romney.
“Think how early we are in the process,” said a person with knowledge of the campaign, who asked for anonymity in order to discuss deliberations among Mr. Perry’s aides. “The reality is, not one delegate was committed yesterday. We are still early enough in the process that if the candidate has the drive to go forward, he ought to.”
“If we can get this back to a Perry versus Romney field,” the person said, “Perry can win.”
If he does well there, he’ll burst Santorum’s bubble, finish off Gingrich, and lay to rest whatever remains of Huntsman’s campaign after his likely defeat in New Hampshire. But that all depends on how well Santorum does in NH, of course. If Santorum gets a major bounce from Iowa and finishes a respectable second to Mitt up north, he’ll arrive in South Carolina as the presumptive social-con Not Romney, which makes things very hard for Perry. Perry fans, in fact, are now in the strange position of needing a Romney landslide next Tuesday to prove that Santorum’s a paper tiger whom South Carolinians shouldn’t bother taking a chance on.
And even if that Romney landslide happens, that’s dangerous too. The big rap on Mitt is that he has a low ceiling because most of the party hates him, but once there’s solid proof to the contrary of that in some state, it might shake loose undecideds elsewhere. Plus, Romney will have Nikki Haley campaigning for him in South Carolina, so if he shows up with lots of momentum, lots of endorsements, and a four-way split among the Not Romney vote, I wonder if he ends up winning there and suddenly looks so inevitable that no one can catch him even in a two-way race. That is to say, the assumption all along has been that anyone in the field (except Ron Paul) has a good shot of taking Romney out head to head. But maybe not. Maybe, if Romney runs the table early, the media buzz about inevitability and electability becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy in which even undecideds who prefer Perry or Santorum ideologically choose to opt for the guy with all the money and organization who can beat O. And on top of all that, for Perry to come back in South Carolina would be unprecedented: Since 1980, everyone who won there had also won in either Iowa or New Hampshire. Perry finished a distant fifth in the former and will do similarly in the latter. Are those long odds good enough to justify continuing, knowing that his participation will deepen the split in the conservative vote and inadvertently help Romney?
Next debate is Saturday night, by the way. Yesterday that looked like it was going to be an “everyone against Romney” affair, but with Perry back in and eager to take Santorum down, Mitt now has himself an unlikely ally.
Methinks he will crash like Icarus. ;^)
I don’t believe I’d give a nickel for the two of ‘em together.
We went through the whole “re-access” argument when Cain said it. Still, I think he was seriously considering whether he should drop out or not. That’s not the same was wanting to drop out, or deciding to drop out.
I do think they needed to re-tool their campaign.
As it is now, I hold little hope for Perry. However, Bachmann is gone, and I’m not a big fan of Gingrich (and he could be on the way down as well, although we need another two weeks before his polling numbers would drop using the trajectory from Perry and Cain earlier).
I figure the wild card is Santorum. If he catches on in New Hampshire, he’ll preclude any chance for Perry, but then Santorum will win South Carolina, which should put Gingrich out. And Santorum isn’t a bad pick.
And if Santorum wilts under actual scrutiny, I’m glad Perry will still be there. If you believe that each candidate has gotten a cursory look, Santorum is the end of the line. If he is gone, all those people have to go back and make a final decision, and Perry is as likely as anybody left to get the call, especially since he was the first “rejected” and the reasons for doing so may have been weaker than the reasons for rejecting Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum.
I’m glad Perry isn’t gone, because it gives us more of a chance to beat Romney with a real conservative. I’ll settle for Gingrich if I have to, but I’d rather have Perry or Santorum (now that Bachmann is gone).
Of course, I can’t vote for any of these people in Virginia....
I’m a man without a candidate at this juncture.
LOL
While Perry’s no “snob” (presumably), he does kind of remind me of another pol, whose name sounds like “Perry” (Kerry) let real people who didn’t care for him that they weren’t really “real people” like him anyway!
I hadn’t noticed a lot of ripping into Santorum here. I know I’m not ripping him, but I’m not really a “Perry supporter”, as I haven’t made up my mind yet.
I do think we need to look at all the backgrounds of all the candidates. But when I see Santorum getting ripped here, it’s always by the people who still won’t forgive him for picking Specter over Toomey. They have been on that game a long time, well before anybody thought to support Perry for anything.
Oh, Excuse me. I inadvertently walked in to the standard, anti-Perry thread. Thought it was a real discussion about a sitting Governor who is remarkably qualified to run for POTUS.
Governor Perry is the epitome of all we once thought of as being a typical, all-American. Once thought of. Eagle Scout, (and reared his son to acheive that status)high school graduate, college graduate (Corps of Cadets), served his country by being commissioned in the Air Force, completed pilot training, and flew C-130 tactical airlift in the United States, the Middle East, and Europe until 1977. He left the Air Force with the rank of captain, returned to Texas, and went into business farming cotton with his father. Think of that. A farmer too. Has an A plus rating from the National Rifle Association. Three term governor. Religious. Bold Conservative. Patriotic. Always proud of his country.
Stated in a campaign YouTube: “There's something wrong in this country when gays can serve openly in the military, and your kids can't openly celebrate Christmas.” - Rick Perry. (By the way, this YouTube received a half a million “dislikes.”)
Chairman of the Republican Governors Association.
You may not approve of or vote for Governor Perry, but to suggest he's not qualified or that “we would not know his name” is absurd. Your tag-line says all I need to know.
I couldn’t agree with the title more.
Yeah. Another faux pas. I just don’t get it.
Another tid-bit to consider:
I heard on Fox & Friends this morning that Ron Paul plans to only focus on the states that run caucuses.
NOTE: Besides Iowa, the following states run Caucuses: Colorado, Washington, Maine, Idaho, Minnesota, Nevada, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Alaska, and Hawaii.
Per Business Insider yesterday:
"[Ron] Paul's massive organizational push in Iowa focused on both winning votes, and also on making sure that Paul supporters stuck around after the vote to make sure they were selected as county delegates — the first step towards being elected as a delegate to the Republican National Convention.
"That's because Iowa's Republican caucuses are non-binding — they are technically just a straw poll, so once selected, delegates are free to vote for whichever presidential candidate they choose.
"Part of what we've been training the Ron Paul people to do is not to leave after the vote," Dan Godzich, a senior campaign advisor, told BI. "Stay and get elected to the conventions and get us those delegates. ...."
[snip]
<>
January 3, 2012 by Kevin DuJan (HillBuzz):
What It’s Like to Attend A Caucus In Iowa
[....huge snip....]
"...As long as I live, I will never forget what I witnessed on January 3rd, 2008. I am still horrified that Caucuses are allowed to exist and that voters are disenfranchised and intimidated like this in the United States.
"I honestly and truly hope that Ron Paul wins every single Caucus this year and I hope that Ron Paul’s most obsessive and vocal supporters are out in force at every Caucus location behaving as badly as the Obama operatives did in 2008. In 2012, more people will have cell phones on them with video cameras and hopefully the horrible behavior of Caucus-goers will be documented and put on display via YouTube so that every state conducting a Caucus will be embarrassed. The Caucus system is an unfunny and horrifying joke.
"After what happened in 2008, filmmaker Gigi Gaston put together the documentary “We Will Not Be Silenced 2008 to document what the Obama campaign did to game the Caucus system and intimidate voters four years ago. The agenda-driven media aggressively covered the Caucus abuses up, because they were in full-court Obama defense mode. Since the media hates Ron Paul so much, I hope in 2012 they will decide to cover the shenanigans that will no doubt occur during the Caucuses he participates in so that more people can see just how terrible Caucuses are. [........]"
<>
Here's an interesting tid-bit from RedState (Erick Erickson - a Perry supporter):
"This Won’t Play Well In South Carolina
"Rick Santorum has some pent up issues with Jim DeMint.
"Just a few weeks before DeMint stood for re-election on South Carolina’s ballot, Rick Santorum showed up in DeMint’s neighborood to tell everyone Jim DeMint was wrong on earmarks. “Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania said the Constitution gives Congress control of the purse strings and that he supported earmarks for port deepening while a senator – the opposite of the position that DeMint is taking.
"But former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia said DeMint has shown “moral courage” in refusing to support any earmarks, including one that the State Ports Authority says is needed to study the deepening of Charleston Harbor.”
"Santorum went on John King USA on CNN tonight and again defended earmarks claiming “Jim DeMint did it too” without acknowledging DeMint repented and has since led the fight against earmarks. [....]
"It’s not just Rick Santorum knocking Jim DeMint (!!!) when not hiding behind DeMint to claim tea party bona fides, Santorum is also going to have trouble in South Carolina because of his voting record. He opposed National Right to Work legislation."
bttt
Gads...his debate performances were painful. We can’t afford someone to go against Zero who makes those kinds of mistakes - the media would have a field day trashing him. Too bad because his record in Texas is pretty good overall.
“Gads...his debate performances were painful. We can’t afford someone to go against Zero who makes those kinds of mistakes - the media would have a field day trashing him. Too bad because his record in Texas is pretty good overall.”
Painful is an apt word to use. His performances in the early debates were painful because HE was in pain, literally, from back surgery. As he healed, his debates improved greatly.
“I’m glad Perry isn’t gone, because it gives us more of a chance to beat Romney with a real conservative. I’ll settle for Gingrich if I have to, but I’d rather have Perry or Santorum (now that Bachmann is gone).
Of course, I can’t vote for any of these people in Virginia....”
I’m in the same boat, and it makes me so angry. Our two choices in VA are non-choices as far as I’m concerned.
“If Santorum gets third, which is likely, in NH”
I disagree. The thought is that Santorum has not spent much time in NH and that is false. Brit Hume said last night on Greta that Santorum has made only 3 fewer visits to the state as has Romney. Brit says Santorum is the one to watch in NH. And.....seeing as both Paul and Gingrich are taking the gloves off and exposing Romney’s liberal record, I am inclined to think Mitts will fade this last week before the NH primary. Just think where RS was a week before Iowa.
Showing his own self doubts in Iowa along with his weak showing will dry up any hope for strong fund raising. Who is going to strongly back a person who questions his ability to continue at this early stage?
Yes he should, just look at all the trail of “oops” droppings he left behind in Iowa as a precursor to what’s to come.
Ron Paul will ignore Romney’s liberal record. He’ll continue attacking Gingrich and now Santorum.
Ron Paul is a hypocrite. He ignores Romney’s liberal
record because he wants to be Budget Secretary or Chairman of the Fed in a Romney administration.
I was not born yesterday.
“I’m in the same boat, and it makes me so angry. Our two choices in VA are non-choices as far as I’m concerned”
By the time the primaries rolled around in Texas last time, we had no choice either. Just McCain. Even Romney had dropped out by then after spending 11 million dollars in the campaign.
I agree with your reasoned sentiments completely.
He actually started to make some amends (to some) for his former mistakes after confronting the Politico reporter. This latest move was classless and stupid. The latter part just reinforces what a lot thought of him, anyway.
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