NH Primary Tracking Poll (Suffolk 1/4)

Suffolk University (pdf) ^ | 1/4/2012 | Suffolk University

[Crichton]

Jan 2nd - Jan 3rd
Romney 43%
Undecided 16%
Paul 14%
Gingrich 9%
Huntsman 7%
Santorum 6%
Bachmann 2%
Perry 1%
Roemer 1%
Karger 1%

[Crichton]

This is the only up to date polling on NH. It is from pre-Iowa so expect some shake-up after those results.

[freedomrings69]

If Santorum can make any kind of contest out of Iowa then Romney is in deep trouble.

[Crichton]

This is the 4th day of tracking from Suffolk - the results have been more or less steady, slight downticks (2 pts) from Gingrich and Huntsman, uptick from 3 to 6 for Santorum.

[BigEdLB]

OK, I’ll bite. What’s a Karger?

[bereanway]

What a sorry state of affairs in NH.

[CainConservative]

Thanks for the new poll : )

Jan 2nd - Jan 3rd

Willard (D) 43%
Paul (D) 14%
Gingrich 9% .. Go Newt!!!
Huntsman 7%
Santorum 6% .. Go Rick!!!
Bachmann 2%
Roemer 1%
Karger 1%
PERRY 1% .. Yikes!!!

Undecided 16%

[Crichton]

Fred Karger .... I think he runs for president in the NH primary every cycle. Probably some good stories about him!

[bramps]

What importance is New Hampshire? Answer - 0!! New Hampshire has gone from a Conservative state to the mix we have today. The public up there are as screwed up as Massachusetts. And, Romney does well both places. Fortunately some of the rest of the country has some intelligent people that can determine what smell right or wrong. New Hampshire is now full of migrating liberals from Massachusetts's who voted high taxes, liberal pensions plans for public employees, in bed with corrupted unions and loved every welfare program devised. Why did they move to New Hampshire you ask??? In order to get away from the policies the espoused in Massachusetts, pinheads!!!

[GonzoGOP]

If Santorum can make any kind of contest out of Iowa then Romney is in deep trouble.

On the up side nobody expects anyone but Romney to win in NH. Santorum needs to come in 2nd with over 25% to make it interesting. If he is in the single digits he won't be able to build momentum in the South. Especially now that Perry has elected to stay in.

Newt can help him a lot if he savages Romney. If nothing else it will keep the Romney machine busy fighting Newt and off of Santorum. Best case it pulls Romney down into the 30s where Santorum or Gingrich might be able to get at him. Not likely to happen, unless Romney blows his cool under the assault.

[CainConservative]

I think Newt rebounds to double digits in NH.

And I think Santorum hits about 10% which will be pretty good for him, and Perry drops BELOW 1%.

[CainConservative]

Bingo! NH sucks almost as bad as MA now. Although NH does have NASCAR : )

[alloysteel]

People now know where to send their contributions.

https://transaxt.com/Donate/6L4MFQ/RickSantorumforPresident/

[lakewood conservative]

Worst case scenario would be

Romney
Paul
Huntsman
Santorum
Gingrich

A 4th and 5th place showing for Santorum and Gingrich would be crippling to both. Gringrich would be seriously (irreparably ?) damaged especially given the huge endorsement by the NH paper.

This is setting up to be a wild political winter/ spring

[Crichton]

I would guess Romney's support is pretty solid. The keys from my perspective:

* Will Romney finish under 50%, limiting his delegate share?
* Will Hunstman get any traction, or at least finish in the top 4 to remain eligible for the SC debate?
* Will Ron Paul see a surge? He could take 2nd.
* I doubt Santorum will hit 20% but how high will the bounce take him?
* Will Newt really compete in the state or throw in the towel and head to SC?

[GonzoGOP]

* Will Romney finish under 50%, limiting his delegate share
Likely. He isn't at 50% now and the one thing that we know for sure is that even if 16% are undecided they have decided one thing, and that is not to vote for Romney.

* Will Hunstman get any traction, or at least finish in the top 4 to remain eligible for the SC debate?
No. His dismal finish in Iowa and low numbers in the South mark him as an also ran.

* Will Ron Paul see a surge? He could take 2nd.
Santorum or Gingrich need 20% to keep Paul out of 2nd. He won't get much higher than he is now, but he isn't going any lower either.

* I doubt Santorum will hit 20% but how high will the bounce take him?
You never know. There are 16% undecided. Pick up that an you are at 22%. And you can pick up a percent or two of ex-Bachman voters. Not likely by any stretch of the imagination, but possible.

* Will Newt really compete in the state or throw in the towel and head to SC?
He will be there, but will be running a scorched earth campaign against Romney. While he may siphon off some of the "Not Romney" vote, he will at a minimum keep the Romney camp's attention. Allowing Santorum to retain a positive message.

[PAConservative1]

HAHA! La Raza Rick at 1% with Karger and Roemer!

[Liz]

Perry was just on TV attributing his loss to Iowa’s “quirky” process——says he’s looking forward to state caucuses where “real” Republicans vote.

[Liz]

PING TO POST #17

[who knows what evil?]

Perry was just on TV attributing his loss to Iowa’s “quirky” process——says he’s looking forward to state caucuses where “real” Republicans vote.

Damn...talk like that might convince me to vote for him...

[TADSLOS]

You know who else is “quirky”? South Carolinians, Floridians, Virginians and Ohioans. Looks like Rick’s gotta lotta quirkiness to wade through.