Posted on 12/30/2011 11:53:44 AM PST by Patton@Bastogne
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The Liberal News-Media (now joined by their The Usual E-RINO Suspects) will suffer an "epic fail" ...
as they DESPERATELY try to force a "faux disqualification" for Newt Gingrich in the upcoming Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary.
I'm confident that Newt Gingrich will "decimate" Mitt Romney and Dr. Winkie (Ron Paul) in South Carolina and Florida ...
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How many successful POTUS candidates have ever won the Iowa Caucus ?
In the last thirty-two (32) years ... only ONE Democrat (Obama in 2008) and ONE Republican (Bush-43 in 2000) have won BOTH the Iowa Caucus and the Presidential Election ...
Of course, that doesn't include "sitting" Presidents (Reagan, Clinton) who won Iowas on their way to a second term election ...
That presents odds of TWO (2) Iowa Caucus wins out of SIXTEEN (16) possible Presidential Election Candidates !
Equivalent to a Whopping twelve-point-five (12.5) percent success rate ...
How many successful POTUS candidates have ever won the New Hampshire Primary ?
In the last thirty-two (32) years ... only ONE Democrat (Carter in 1976) and TWO Republicans (Reagan-1980 and Bush-41 in 1988) have won BOTH the New Hampshire Primary and the Presidential Election ...
Of course, that doesn't include "sitting" Presidents (Reagan, Clinton) who won New Hampshire on their way to a second term election ...
That presents odds of THREE (3) New Hampshire wins out of FIFTEEN (15) possible Presidential Election Candidates !
Equivalent to a Whopping thirteen-three-three (13.33) percent success rate ...
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THE IOWA CAUCUS -- Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:
Democrats:
January 3, 2008 – Barack Obama (38%)
January 19, 2004 – John Kerry (38%)
January 24, 2000 – Al Gore (63%)
February 12, 1996 – Bill Clinton (unopposed)
February 10, 1992 – Tom Harkin (76%)
February 8, 1988 – Dick Gephardt (31%)
February 20, 1984 – Walter Mondale (49%)
January 21, 1980 – Jimmy Carter (59%)
January 19, 1976 – "Uncommitted" (37%)
January 24, 1972 – "Uncommitted" (36%)
Republicans
2008 – Mike Huckabee (34%)
2004 – George W. Bush (unopposed)
2000 – George W. Bush (41%)
1996 – Bob Dole (26%)
1992 – George H. W. Bush
1988 – Bob Dole (37%)
1984 – Ronald Reagan (unopposed)
1980 – George H. W. Bush (32%)
1976 – Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan
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THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY -- Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:
Democrats:
2008 Senator Hillary Clinton
2004 Senator John Kerry
2000 Vice President Al Gore
1996 President Bill Clinton
1992 Senator Paul Tsongas
1988 Governor Michael Dukakis
1984 Senator Gary Hart
1980 President Jimmy Carter
1976 Governor Jimmy Carter
Republicans
2008 Senator John McCain
2004 President George W. Bush
2000 Senator John McCain
1996 Pat Buchanan
1992 President George H. W. Bush
1988 Vice President George H. W. Bush
1984 President Ronald Reagan
1980 Governor Ronald Reagan
1976 President Gerald R. Ford
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From your mouth to God’s ears.
I totally agree. Willard ran about a gazillion dollars worth of negative ads on Newt in Iowa and it does take a toll especially when Newt was not fighting back. I am hoping Newt backs off the no negative ad stance after Iowa. Newt will likely take SC and Fl and definitely GA. This is going to be a real horse race. Iowa and NH are not going to take Newt out. In a few weeks everyone will have forgotten all about Iowa.
How many Republican candidates have FAILED to win the South Carolina Republican primary and gone on to win the nomination? Answer; ZERO, ZIP, NADA, NOT ARY ONE IN THE WHOLE TIME SINCE THE FIRST SC GOP PRIMARY. In 2008 I had people tell me that McCain would break the spell, he was NOT going to be nominated even though he had won SC. It didn’t happen though, I think Newt will win South Carolina and I don’t think he will break the charm by NOT winning the nomination.
SC is a far better indicator of who the GOP nominee is. They have a very good track record of picking them. I think it is because they run a clean GOP Primary as opposed to NH and IA.
People need to remember that after 2008 the RNC changed to rules to favor a longer more drawn out primary that prevented anyone from securing the nomination early. And that includes Romney.
This is going to be a long contest, regardless.
Only 3 people (not including the nut Paul) have the resources to go the long haul:
Romney
Newt
Perry
Everyone else doesn’t have two nickles to rub together and will soon be out.
Since Romney is unacceptable for 10000000 reasons, that leaves us with Newt and Perry.
Newt has baggage but is smart and articulate.
Perry has an amazing record but appears dumb and inarticulate.
Those are the options people. You have to play with the team your given.
For me the choice is easy, Gingrich. (unless Perry manages to get brain surgery or something to fix his apparent inability to string two sentences together without losing his train of thought.
Santorum, Bachmann, Huntsman - have ZERO chance of getting the nomination. None. Any vote for them at this point is a vote for Romney.
and Paul? Paul is a lunatic best ignored.
You nailed it.
Thank you for your efforts.
GO NEWT GO.....
Not this tripe again.
The Iowa Caucuses are not about guessing the eventual winner. They’re about trimming the field, and they’re quite good at it.
Really,when is South Carolina ?
Thanks for that graphic. It will come in handy when the Newt haters blow their vile rhetoric again.......
You’re talking about winning the presidency, not the nomination. Your stats show IA predicts the winner about half the time and NH about 2/3rds of the time. Your stats also show there has never been a candidate who won both IA and NH that didn’t win the nomination. Bill Clinton in 1992 is the only one who won the nomination but did not win either IA or NH. However, IA and NH were split between two different candidates that time. This must be why Newt’s odds are so long on Intrade. It would be unprecedented if Romney won IA and NH but didn’t win the nomination.
There are differences this year. Romney has a hometown advantage in NH so it’s not really a fair fight. The delegates are now proportional, so if the 1st place winner isn’t THAT far out in front of the others, they walk away with only slightly more delegates than the next guy. But being #1 will still be a huge PR and fundraising advantage. I am unclear if candidates who drop out can give their delegates to another candidate, which might allow us to consolidate conservative votes (of course Bachmann will be giving hers to Romney so it could split both ways).
It’s really, really important that Romney lose IA if his momentum is going to be staved off. Otherwise, Newt or anyone else has very long odds.
Give Newt the nomination and he will immediately go for Obama’s throat and not let up until the day after the election.
There is nothing the journolist media can say or accuse Newt of that will affect his attack on the Anti-President.
The Media told us back in 1980 that Reagan was losing right up to election night. Even in the exit polling they reported Carter was winning. We’ve already voted for Gingrich here in Florida (the 12 adults in our family). All of our ballots are already in with the Palm Beach County Board of Elections. We’re not listening to the meme from the Media at all. It’s a Reagan Redux and we’ve heard it all before. We fully expect Gingrich to take the nomination despite the GOP Establishment and the MSM.
We're all in for Newt. Ballots already cast via absentee. The whole family is on Newt's Train. Hopefully the country will follow suit. We think it will.
We're all in for Newt. Ballots already cast via absentee. The whole family is on Newt's Train. Hopefully the country will follow suit. We think it will.
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