What the Rick Santorum Swell Has Wrought

swampland.time.com ^ | 12/29/2011 | ADAM SORENSEN

[TBBT]

If Santorum is indeed pulling away from the social conservative tangle that’s kept him, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann stuck near 10% for much of the last two months, it changes the Iowa math considerably: evangelicals may actually coalesce around one candidate, spoiling what looked likely to be a split decision win for Ron Paul or Mitt Romney and raising the possibility that Perry or Bachmann finish poorly enough to end their campaigns. If you want evidence for how real that threat is, check out Perry’s new ad, cut today for Iowa radio:

It’s also, like so many of the developments in this primary campaign, a boon for Romney. Team Romney is playing the long game. His Super PAC is already buying time in South Carolina and continues to savage Newt Gingrich on airwaves everywhere, despite the former Speaker’s precipitous Iowa decline. Gingrich has shown potential in later states and remains a threat, even if an ever-shrinking one. Now Santorum is siphoning his supporters. And if Santorum cuts Perry down in Iowa, Romney doesn’t have to worry about a late advertising onslaught from the only candidate who’s ever come close to big-league competition in fundraising. Santorum has neither the money–he’s only just now scrambling to buy up his first scrap of airtime in New Hampshire–nor the broad appeal to contest later states such as Florida, but the longer he stays in, as with Paul, the more splintered the anybody-but-Mitt factions in those states will become.

[TBBT]

Up: Romney
Down: Not Romney

[teg_76]

Well, since Santorum is ahead of Gingrigh and Perry, I think they should be the ones to drop out. Why should a conservative who is beating two “heartless” RINOS be the one to drop out?

We have our first true conservative candidate surging, not the mandate lover Gingrich or the heartless Rick Perry. I’ll take the conservative that is winning.

[TBBT]

Don’t get me wrong Santorum fans. I like Rick. He’d be my second or third choice - tied with Perry.

But he’s just not going to make it. If he performs about expectations in Iowa, it will only served to damage Newt and Perry - the only two left standing that could possibly give Romney a run for his money. Perry’s shot is also a long shot (his down state polling numbers are in the basement), both against Romney and Obama.

[RitaOK]

Santorum must by now be an A-list cabinet pick for Romney, for the favor these bottom tier, broke candidates have given him. Romney is capable of paying off Bachmann’s abominable debt and Santorum’s also, if they will just continue to carp from the sidelines and distract and destroy the rise of any and all non-Romneys.

This strategy seems to be selling like hotcakes on FR threads today.

[RealImmigrant]

I think the Santorum Surge (hey I should copyright that..LOL) has hurt Romney, not helped

If Santorum wins Iowa, or comes in second and ahead of Romney....Romney will run into trouble in the Southern states.

Santorum does not have the baggage of some of the other candidates, and actually handles the media well.

I am not in the Santorum camp, but I would have no problem supporting for him in the general election...will not have to hold my nose voting for him

[TexasFreeper2009]

A vote for Santorum, is a vote for Romney.

[cripplecreek]

Santorum is midwest friendly in the sense that he’s one of us. Romney gets a lot of play as a “Michigander” but hasn’t lived here for 30 years or more and his daddy’s supporters are going the way of the dinosaurs.

[TBBT]

Well, since Santorum is ahead of Gingrigh and Perry, I think they should be the ones to drop out. Why should a conservative who is beating two “heartless” RINOS be the one to drop out?

Myopia.

You are only looking at Iowa. You don't see the forest for the trees.

Santorum has no money or ogranization outside of Iowa. He's polling at a statistical zero nationally and every other state across the country.

The author of the story pretty much hits the nail on the head.

[VicVega]

Just looking at the numbers in Iowa, it appears Santorum is taking more from Newt at this point.

Newt taking 4th will be an ego blow to him, but won't have that much effect in the national polls where he still has a lead.

These next few days should be interesting and probably get ugly.

Michele has to shot for the stars if she wants to remain relevant in NH.

[Keith in Iowa]

Santorum has gone UP since he publicly flat out said he’d fold it up if he were dead last in Iowa... and, he’ll go up more in the aftermath of the MB’s issues with the State Senator bolting to the Paulinistas, and the associated crap. Perry will pick-up form it as well.

[old and tired]

Back when Rick was running for PA Senate, I supported him with my dollars and my time. I just can't get enthusiastically behind him. And yes, it's because he supported Specter. But it's not only because he endorsed Specter, it's everything that went along with him supporting Specter. It meant he was willing to be a puppet for the Republican party, even if it meant sacrificing his core beliefs. We've had enough Republican puppets.

I'd certainly rather have Santorum over Romney. And I'd vote for him in a general election or in a primary over Romney. But I'm just not sure how much higher I can rank the man. He can't win a PA primary. Too many grass roots people like me had our hearts broken by the man when he endorsed Specter over Toomey.

[Joe Boucher]

Newt is making money.
Rick? Just making obvious how out of his league he is.
Go Rick, a no BS conservative

[Impy]

Perry and Gingrich both blew their chances already. Santorum is both more conservative than and a better potential general election candidate than both of them.

[FreeReign]

Santorum has a lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union of 88% conservative. Gingrich has a lifetime rating of 90% conservative.

Both are now splitting the anti Romney vote in Iowa.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Kind of wrapped inside of an Iowa only world there, ain’t ya?

Santorum ahead of Newt in one poll from one state for one day, and you think that’s it, case closed? Sheesh.

[CainConservative]

BINGO!

[cradle of freedom]

Geez, it used to be a vote for Bachmann was a vote for Romney.

[kosciusko51]

o&t,

I understand your point about Rick, but I have to give him a pass on Specter. He had to support that RINO, otherwise that snarlin' pit bull would have made life difficult for Bush in his second term with judicial nominees (unfortunately, that is what you get when you have a petty, vindictive, self-interested and self-aggrandizing politician as your senior senator).

For the primary, I think I have to go with Santorum, since he is the candidate that I most agree with. Primaries are for choosing the candidate that most aligns with your views, not the time to hold your nose and vote. That comes in November.

-K51

[CaptainK]

Santorium could have supported the RINO Specter after the RINO Specter won the primary. Instead he jumped the gun and sabotaged Pat Toomey’s chance to take the seat away from Arlen. A seat Pat Toomey finally, though belatedly thanks to Rick, won.

[Longbow1969]

Santorum is both more conservative than and a better potential general election candidate than both of them.

Santorum is a solid conservative, but he also lost his home state of PA by 18 points in the 2006 Senate race. Sorry, but nationally he is dead in the water. He has no organization and the stink of that crushing Senate defeat leaves too many electability issues for Rick to have any chance to win the nomination. The big money will never go to his campaign and it will be easy for any candidate with money and organization to tear him to shreds. Santorum won't be the nominee. Santorum needs to go back to PA and win something to erase the stench of losing his last race by 18 points and regenerate confidence in potential supporters that it is worth risking money and time to back him.