As a supporter of Gingrich, I confess I am disappointed about situation in Iowa. It appears that Newt has run out of supporters before Romney ran out of money with which to run negative ads. The problem is that what has been done in Iowa to Gingrich might be replicated in South Carolina and Florida.
Let me be clear, this is the way the game has to be played now. The candidates must go through the fire and if Gingrich cannot withstand the media assault he should fall by the wayside. We cannot afford to send the candidate into the general election who cannot even withstand a media barrage when the field consists only or mostly of Republican voters. If Gingrich is vulnerable because of his baggage let him fade now.
We must be brutally Darwinian about selecting the man to beat Obama.
Of the three tests in selecting our candidate, electability, conservative bona fides, and vision, I put electability first on the list because, as John F. Kennedy said, "first you gotta get elected." We cannot risk the Republic on a second term. So electability is the most compelling consideration.
If Santorum is to move up the line to challenge Romney, let us see whether the theory holds that says that Gingrich has too much baggage and Santorum has no baggage. It is better to know what sort of attacks can he made against Santorum in the general. His support of Arlen Specter will hardly constitute a serious flaw in the general. Probably, he will be painted as some sort of a religious nut and a fanatic on abortion. Likely they will try to make them into a warmonger.
I have always thought of Santorum as a potential second-tier vice presidential candidate in the hope that he might deliver Pennsylvania. If Obama loses Pennsylvania he will almost certainly have lost the general election but it is not at all clear that Santorum can deliver Pennsylvania. Can he win it as the presidential nominee? The fact that he lost it as senator does not mean that he cannot win it as the presidential candidate.
I am of the mind that it is too soon to write Gingrich off. The acid test for him will come in South Carolina; if he can prevail there, he has a chance to go on. We will have to see the effects of the negative ads in South Carolina.
I think it would be better if Paul prevails over Romney in Iowa because it will vitiate the value of a win in Iowa for Romney and will do less harm to Gingrich. I discount Paul as a serious contender for the nomination but it is difficult to assess what sort of mischief he can do in the meantime and, worse, what sort of real mischief he can do if he runs third-party.
