Posted on 12/19/2011 7:31:45 PM PST by TitansAFC
NEW HAMPTON, Iowa — This state was once poised to launch Rick Perry on the path to the Republican nomination. Now, it’s threatening to end his campaign.
There’s an opportunity for Perry: Newt Gingrich, the fifth candidate to shoot to the top of state polls, is slipping. Voters continue to say their minds aren’t made up, and the leading candidates aren’t spending much time here — unlike Perry, who launched a 14-day bus tour last week.
That complements a slew of ads running in the state and a retrenched appeal to the evangelical, social-conservative voters in his natural base who make up a significant chunk of the local electorate.
Speaking to POLITICO on Monday, Perry said he thinks he’s turning the tide with his presence in Iowa and the relentless push on issues like the balanced-budget amendment and a part-time Congress.
“Not only are we getting to talk to people face to face and unfiltered through most sources, but we’re also beaming it up across the country. Iowa’s important, and our intention is to win Iowa. I’m pretty comfortable that Iowa’s values are right in line with what I’m talking about,” Perry said. Perry supporters say that’s a sign the Texas governor is going to do better than expected — but even they say it’s likely to fall far short of a true comeback.
Even in a race as fluid as this year’s, the conventional wisdom still holds: It’s the top three on Jan. 3 who’ll get to move on. Ron Paul’s candidacy might provide some wiggle room for a candidate who scores a close fourth. But even if Perry ends up in that spot, he’ll need to do it by finishing far enough ahead of Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum to be a clear break-out.
“The only person in 30 years to get a fourth ticket out of Iowa was [John] McCain last time,” said West Des Moines-based consultant John Stineman. But McCain had New Hampshire as a stronghold to fall back on and very deliberately pulled himself out of contention in Iowa. Perry doesn’t have an early state of his own — South Carolina, where he launched his campaign and was expected to be a leader, has slipped away from him. If Perry has a weak finish in Iowa and follows that by coming in at the back of the pack in New Hampshire — where he scored an approval rating lower than President Barack Obama among GOP voters in a poll released last week — and a middling showing in South Carolina, it’s hard to see how the Perry campaign won’t quickly disappear.
Perry sees things differently. Asked whether his campaign could go on if he’s not in the top three in Iowa, Perry told POLITICO, “Absolutely. The what-ifs of ‘what if you show up second,’ or ‘what if you show up third’ or ‘what if you show up whatever’ — I’m campaigning; I’m pressing on.” Republican operative Tim Albrecht, who serves as Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad’s communications director, said the die’s not cast yet.
“I sense a real opportunity for Perry to do well here. Candidate time on the ground is imperative, and Gov. Perry needs to make the deal in person. If he does this, then he has a real shot for a top three performance on caucus night,” he said.
“I got a different side of the governor, looking him eye to eye instead of just at a debate. Anybody can have a flub or a brain freeze. It can happen to anybody,” said Steven Holt, a Denison resident who became a Perry supporter after hearing him at an event last week.
Perry optimists, though, acknowledge that there may not be enough time — and that Perry might not have the message or operation to turn anywhere near enough people like Holt by Jan. 3.
“I don’t know if he can win or not, but I think he’ll put in a much stronger turnout than anyone expects,” said Ron Ankrom, an evangelical pastor who introduced Perry at an event in New Hampton on Sunday afternoon.
“Gingrich’s numbers are soft. It’s drying up in front of us, almost daily.” But Perry’s competing with Santorum and Bachmann for the voters that could push him through that opening — and he seems to be losing the fight.
“If I had a choice of two people, I’d say Santorum and Bachmann,” said Joe Hill, a Republican in Iowa’s Lyon County. Hill added that he was leaning toward Santorum because the former Pennsylvania senator is “a good Christian.”
Voters yearning for an alternative to Gingrich and Mitt Romney turn up at Perry events, and he takes aim at them, continuing to press the original message of his campaign.
“There’s only one outsider in this race,” he said. “Wall Street and Washington is the problem. We’ve got to have someone who can walk in and doesn’t give a hoot about any old relationship.”
But unlike Santorum and Bachmann, who are in the midst of their own frenetic final pushes in the state, Perry never appears rushed, and there’s little sign of hustle.
After attending two church services Sunday, Perry spent more than an hour at a lunch with the pastor and a few churchgoers at a restaurant. He shook a few hands as he headed out, seeming pleased with his progress. When he walked outside, a local television reporter asked him how he was doing.
“Good,” he said. “Time for a nap.”
Then Perry spent around 45 minutes waiting on his bus before driving off to the next stop, about 30 minutes away. Then he spent more than 45 minutes waiting on his bus before driving off to the next stop about 15 minutes away.
Dave Roederer, who chaired the state efforts for McCain in 2008 and George W. Bush in 2000, said it’s difficult to see how Perry gets the finish he needs.
“He has a big hill to climb. You only have one opportunity to make a first impression. Visits are appreciated but it’s not going to be the predominant factor,” he said. “Even on this bus tour, the number of people he’s able to see is limited. But it’s all he has.”
Wall Street is the problem?!?!?!
One can only hope. I can’t wait for him to drop out. He is a disaster. I am very happy that 98 percent agree with me.
Iowa is becoming irrelevant. Huckabee won it last time around.
Is Ricky P. an occupier now?
TOTALLY agree.
Did the Perry basher awaken?
Those are my sentiments as well.
Perry will do well in IA and Huntsman will surprise in NH, but neither will get results in SC & FL.
He is only taking away votes from more qualified candidates. We need alternatives to Gingrich, Romney and Paul but Perry isn’t it, he is just a showboat. Some people call him governor goodhair and that seems like a fitting moniker for him.
I think Perry would have been better-off going all-in in SC and FL. Newt gets blasted for not spending much time in Iowa, but Iowa has been far las of an indicator and an incredibly eccentric caucus for quite some time.
I simply have never understood Perry’s strategy from the start, never. He could have (and should have) had this thing wrapped-up.
Thanks for that, I am enjoying a hearty belly laugh right now.
:)
That dolt has more executive experience than any candidate including the “Doofus in Chief”, Obama.
as Rudy found out, skipping the early states just gets you blacked out from the news.
IA 120,000 caucus attendees
SC 450,000 voters in the primary
FL 2 million voters in the primary
retail campaigning, so much easier in IA and people there are paying attention.
Now that Cain is gone, Politico is a valuable News source again?
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