Posted on 12/04/2011 5:23:58 AM PST by IbJensen
We can say this about our friend Newt Gingrich: He has never suffered from public self-doubt.
On the strength of a string of polls showing the GOP conservative base has fallen in love with him Newt told ABC News' Jake Tapper: "I'm going to be the nominee. It's very hard not to look at the recent polls and think that the odds are very high I'm going to be the nominee."
A Rasmussen poll which was taken on Wednesday shows Newt with 38 percent to Mitt Romney's 17 percent among likely voters. Even being mathematically challenged I know that is a 21 percentage point lead.
The rest of the field is in single digits: Cain & Paul are at 8; Perry, Bachmann and Santorum are at 4, and Huntsman continues to trail the field with three percent.
If there were a national primary and it was scheduled for this Saturday, Newt would probably be correct. He might be correct anyway, but it's a little early to be taking a victory lap.
The Iowa caucuses will not occur until a month from tomorrow. New Hampshire is a week later. South Carolina will be held on January 21 and the Florida primary will be ten days after that.
I have not focused on anything past Florida but it bears looking at.
In February the states which will choose delegates are Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Michigan.
March will bring 19 states into focus including 10 on March 6
Eight states will select delegates in April. Seven in May and seven states will wrap up the process in June including California and New Jersey on June 5
This is December 2 and there is likely to be a long way to go.
Dear Mr. Mullings:
What if Newt wins Iowa and South Carolina and generates enough forward momentum to win Florida?
Signed, The National Debate Scheduling Association
That would certainly help make Gingrich's case, but keep in mind that under Republican National Committee rules any caucus or primary held before April, "… shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis."
Whoa! Really? So the bulk of primaries and caucuses will be decided on a proportional basis instead of the traditional winner-take-all.
That's sort of the way the Dems have done it and it is what led to Hillary and Obama duking it out through June four years ago.
Proportional awarding of delegates means that as long as a candidate doesn't get skunked in a big state, he or she will be able to stay in the game for a long time - so long as the money keeps coming in.
What it also means is that someone like Gingrich will probably not be able to claim victory even if he outright wins Iowa, South Carolina and Florida because he is unlikely to win any of those with 100 percent of the votes.
On the other hand, Obama didn't have to win any state with 100 percent of the votes to have built up an insurmountable lead over Mrs. Clinton in the waning days of the Democratic primary season four years ago.
He won by enough so that Clinton had to win an overwhelming victory in some of the later states to be able to catch up.
The California and New Jersey primaries, because they occur in June, will be winner-take-all and June 5 might be the day that decides this nominating fight.
That's a couple of days more than six months from now.
As I have told you, I have packed up my crystal ball and put it in the hall closet so I have no idea if this will go all the way to next June, but I am pretty sure that Newt claiming to be the nominee a month before the first Hawkeye trudges into the first high school gym is, at best, premature and at worst, an example of dangerous Newtonian hubris.
On the Secret Decoder Ring today: A link to the ABC News interview in which Newt claims he will be the nominee; one to that Rasmussen poll, and one to the Wikipedia list of primary dates. Also an amusing Mullfoto and a Catchy Caption of the Day calling into question the sufficiency of a border fence with Mexico.
I can take that from Rush because he is not running for office. Anyone can choose to listen to Rush or they don’t have to.
Newt is running for President. If he does not cut out the arrogance he is going to crash.
There's a very important part of Cain's media lynching that most are ignoring. And it's the simple fact that this wasn't as much about Cain as it was destroying the Tea Party movement.
The three people who were most closely tied to the Tea Party, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, and Herman Cain, are gone or have been so severely maligned, any chance at a national comeback is slim. Ironically, the only one of those three who has been completely 'vetted' by the MSM is Palin, who by her own choice has decided not to run. We can only hope she reconsiders, but don't count on it.
With the Tea Party influence pretty much gone, there will be a mad scramble between Newt and Romney to claim the movement when, in fact, both are so far removed from the original cause, its almost unthinkable that any support would happen. Romney represents the Obamacare, and Newt the beltway, insider politic- two of the main things the Tea Party has been fighting against. Both have a history of supporting liberal legislation and causes. And most importantly, both have a history of stabbing conservatives in the back.
So what happens to the Tea Party if it rallies behind Newt or Romney? Quite simply, it kills itself. Because the very things it rallied against will be the very thing it has come to support.
And the media will have a field day with it, knowing once and for all, THEY have destroyed the Tea Party, relegating any true conservative momentum under the entrenched elitists beltway bus.
"Vietnam was the right battlefield at the right time." Why didn't he go? "Given everything I believe in, a large part of me thinks I should have gone over," he allowed. But, recovering, he added, "Part of the question I had to ask myself was what difference I would have made."
There in one quote is why Newt is not deserving of any conservative support. It not about making a difference it's about doing your duty, it's about standing by your principles and it's risking your life because somethings are more important then your sorry ass Newt.
I would have made no difference is an excuse, not a reason, there were no vacancies in Vietnam Newt. Someone else went because your were to cowardly to go.
Michele Bachmann is the real deal...
Newt is an Kabuki Theater Actor.. all masks and makeup, strange noises ...
But most republicans don’t even know who the Secretary of State is....
Michele Bachmann is the real deal...
Newt is an Kabuki Theater Actor.. all masks and makeup, strange noises ...
But most republicans don’t even know who the Secretary of State is....
“Part of the question I had to ask myself was what difference I would have made.”
Could have just as easily come straight out of i-bama’s mouth.
Media has this down pat.
Media has this down pat.
I guess we are just all too stupid to realize that:
1. Making illegals legal is NOT amnesty.
2. He apologized for appearing with pelosi, but not the REASON for the appearance.
3. That consulting for, and speaking on behalf of, corrupt cronies for big bucks is not lobbying.
4. That he used his mistress’s religion to try to invalidate his second marriage before he converted.
5. That his definition of when life begins allows for the destruction of live embryos.
6. That he didn’t really mean that Paul Ryan’s plan was right wing social engineering, rather it was an ATTEMPT at ‘right wing social engineering’ which he was proud to disavow.
7. That he pouted for literally weeks after the scuzzyfavors debacle because like obama, he refuses to take reponsibility for his grossest mistakes...ever.
And so much more it would take volumes...and frankly, my stomach isn’t strong enough for it.
He may get to be the nominee , but he wouldn’t beat Obama , especially if someone makes a 3rd party run ( e.g. Ron Paul ) .
I'm sure you know what I mean.
Obama’s next four years will really be interesting, especially when he appoints another Marxist monkey to sit on the disgraced Supreme Court.
I especially feel sorry for the older folks, like myself, who have to die while this creep is still in office.
Too bad we couldn’t have had one more Ronald Reagan-type before we had to be interred.
Both of you are confused. Conservatism is about ideas (conservative principles).
As soon as the conservative starts getting himself caught up in chasing after people or personalities—whether it’s following candidates blindly or turning his ridicule against conservative voters—he’s conforming to the leftist book of rules.
Not saying he’s a leftist. Only that he’s following the behavior pattern of leftists, without realizing it.
Hobson's.
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