Posted on 12/04/2011 5:23:58 AM PST by IbJensen
We can say this about our friend Newt Gingrich: He has never suffered from public self-doubt.
On the strength of a string of polls showing the GOP conservative base has fallen in love with him Newt told ABC News' Jake Tapper: "I'm going to be the nominee. It's very hard not to look at the recent polls and think that the odds are very high I'm going to be the nominee."
A Rasmussen poll which was taken on Wednesday shows Newt with 38 percent to Mitt Romney's 17 percent among likely voters. Even being mathematically challenged I know that is a 21 percentage point lead.
The rest of the field is in single digits: Cain & Paul are at 8; Perry, Bachmann and Santorum are at 4, and Huntsman continues to trail the field with three percent.
If there were a national primary and it was scheduled for this Saturday, Newt would probably be correct. He might be correct anyway, but it's a little early to be taking a victory lap.
The Iowa caucuses will not occur until a month from tomorrow. New Hampshire is a week later. South Carolina will be held on January 21 and the Florida primary will be ten days after that.
I have not focused on anything past Florida but it bears looking at.
In February the states which will choose delegates are Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Michigan.
March will bring 19 states into focus including 10 on March 6
Eight states will select delegates in April. Seven in May and seven states will wrap up the process in June including California and New Jersey on June 5
This is December 2 and there is likely to be a long way to go.
Dear Mr. Mullings:
What if Newt wins Iowa and South Carolina and generates enough forward momentum to win Florida?
Signed, The National Debate Scheduling Association
That would certainly help make Gingrich's case, but keep in mind that under Republican National Committee rules any caucus or primary held before April, "… shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis."
Whoa! Really? So the bulk of primaries and caucuses will be decided on a proportional basis instead of the traditional winner-take-all.
That's sort of the way the Dems have done it and it is what led to Hillary and Obama duking it out through June four years ago.
Proportional awarding of delegates means that as long as a candidate doesn't get skunked in a big state, he or she will be able to stay in the game for a long time - so long as the money keeps coming in.
What it also means is that someone like Gingrich will probably not be able to claim victory even if he outright wins Iowa, South Carolina and Florida because he is unlikely to win any of those with 100 percent of the votes.
On the other hand, Obama didn't have to win any state with 100 percent of the votes to have built up an insurmountable lead over Mrs. Clinton in the waning days of the Democratic primary season four years ago.
He won by enough so that Clinton had to win an overwhelming victory in some of the later states to be able to catch up.
The California and New Jersey primaries, because they occur in June, will be winner-take-all and June 5 might be the day that decides this nominating fight.
That's a couple of days more than six months from now.
As I have told you, I have packed up my crystal ball and put it in the hall closet so I have no idea if this will go all the way to next June, but I am pretty sure that Newt claiming to be the nominee a month before the first Hawkeye trudges into the first high school gym is, at best, premature and at worst, an example of dangerous Newtonian hubris.
On the Secret Decoder Ring today: A link to the ABC News interview in which Newt claims he will be the nominee; one to that Rasmussen poll, and one to the Wikipedia list of primary dates. Also an amusing Mullfoto and a Catchy Caption of the Day calling into question the sufficiency of a border fence with Mexico.
He was an adulterous husband and a deadbeat dad. He bounced 22 checks in Congress and voted for their secret pay raise. His Council on Foreign Relations cronies funnel millions to his campaign through his bogus book deals while he uses taxpayer supplied office supplies to produce them. He has been anti-gun, global warming advocate, pro-amnesty and the ONLY reason he wasn't thrown out of office is because as House speaker he appointed the Ethics Committee.
Murdoch tried to funnel 4.6 MILLION dollars to him for a "book deal" He is king of using tax-payer subsidized donations for his personal and political purposes. He stooped so low as to hijack not one but two charities for poor inner city kids and use their donations for his personal goals. His support for NAFTA and the Kennedy-McCain amnesty mark him as Council on Foreign Relations and anyone that votes for him votes for corporate globalism and open borders.And I dare ONE of you Gingrich bots to deny ANY of this.
Gingrich is a LIAR. Just like Obama and Barney Frank he was riding the government train while Freddie and Fannie made bad sub prime loans. "Consultant????" Being called a "consultant for either of those agencies in the last decade OUGHT to be reason enough to throw Gingrich out of office. You Gingrich-bots come on here and try to do damage control every time someone tells the truth about Newty. He FAVORED and supported NAFTA and the Kennedy-McCain Amnesty. He is STILL prattling about amnesty. He posed with Nutsy Pelousy to endorse the junk science infamously entitled 'Global Warming.' He is a career politician that uses his INFLUENCE to peddle "consulting". Go away.
All true friend all true, it would be one really, really cold day in hell when I would vote for the dirt bag newt.
“Pride cometh before a fall.”
Head to head against Obama, I do not see Newt winning it. If a black or a woman ran against Obama, Obama would lose. That is why you saw the attacks against Cain.
“Newt: I Will be the Nominee”
***************************
So...what’s the count to date...re his use of...”I”...?????
Semper Watching!
*****
Bachmann will probably make a comeback now that Newt and Romney are splitting the lib vote.
With the rule change in many states, it will be a long primary season and Newt is a ticking time bomb about to explode.
That's why he back-peddaled on the couch sit with Nancy.
That's why he issued a mea culpa on the Scozzafava endorsement.
That's why he went through a hand wringing contortions to more fully explain his "era of Reagan is over," remarks.
That's why he has jumped through hoops to parse and differentiate between "amnesty" and a "pathway to non-deportation."
No self-doubt there...
He won’t get your vote but he will surely be getting mine. Warts and all he’s head and shoulders above the abomination we have now.
I’m from the Environmental Solutions Agency and I’m here to help. LOL
Whatever, dude. Now do the same thing for Obama and tell us which one you prefer in the White House, the self-aggrandizing, egotistical history professor who participated in the corrupt Washington culture for the past 20 years and who wants to be thought of as a Reagan or Thatcher, or the America-hating Marxist who wants to tear the country to the ground so his socialist and muslim buddies can come in and remake it in their own Sharia Shangrila? Some perspective might help with your anger issues.
“Pride cometh before a fall.”
That’s Isaac Newton!
Kinda like Rush Limbaugh.
Totally agree. Newt's too arrogant and self-absorbed for my liking, but Obama is all the worst of liberalism - coated with minority Teflon. I love my country and he is destructive to it.
Would a chilly one do?
First, what would help in the management of my anger issues is that you would refrain from calling me dude!
The greatest help, however, would be that a right-wing conservative in the mold of a Franco, Fujimori or Pinochet would come riding to our rescue.
The Constitution is a lifer politician’s toilet paper. They dishonor their nation and they dishonor the citizens: both the wise and the stupid unwashed ones who vote for evil.
A sodomized goat would be preferable in the oval orifice; however, with all the ‘great’ people in the United States we shouldn’t have to settle for another egotist like Newtie.
Care to elaborate which aspects of Newt’s positions you support
- support for amnesty (i.e. we concede that some amnesty variant is needed)
- support for Global Warming (and cap-and-trade and lying about it on national TV)
- Attacking conservatives for their spending reform attempts (”radical right-wing social engineering”, “Era of Reagan is over”)
- support for Fairness Doctrine, which is one the most dangerous ideas ever proposed (e.g. the tool to shut down any non-leftist media).
- support for ObamaCare’s individual mandate and insisting it is constitutional and fine
He supported some gun grabbing bills. He attacked Bush’s Iraq policy. He lied about his Fanne Mae lobbying ($300,000 for history lectures, he thinks we are stupid?)
I think his judgement is outright embarrassing and dangerous. He has joined every trendy liberal cause in the past.
Yeah...Here's your prediction form Sunday Nov 20...
"Check the polls when you wake up and you’ll see Newt back to 2%."
Think Ill steer clear of your predictions going forward.
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