Poll Shows Herman Cain Leads with Female Independent & Republican Voters

KCRG News (Cedar Rapids, IA) ^ | 11/18/11 | Jillian Petrus

[justsaynomore]

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa- The KCRG-Gazette-Iowa State University poll of more than 1200 registered Iowa voters came out Thursday.

Three candidates took nearly two-thirds of the overall vote.

Herman Cain was at the top, with 24.5 percent. Not far behind, Texas Representative Ron Paul. Mitt Romney took about 16 percent. All other candidates polled in the single digits. When asked for a second choice, voters picked “can’t decide” more than 20 percent of the time, leaving a large gap of uncertainty in the race.

In a somewhat surprising twist, Herman Cain polled better among women than other candidates in the poll. The results gathered during rampant criticism of Cain for sexual harassment allegations made against him in the 90’s.

Cathy Grawe is a registered republican and Herman Cain supporter. She’s met Cain twice in person and says both times she was very impressed with him.

“In his heart, I know he’d make intelligent decisions good decisions,” Grawe said. The Coralville grandmother says she was not swayed by the allegations telling us she believes it’s mostly just politics.

“They’ve seen enough character assassination to know you have to take everything with a grain of salt,” she says.

Not everyone is convinced Cain can shake the allegations and capture independent and undecided voters.

“I just don’t think he could really, because it isn’t a good thing to hear about him,” said Yvonne Theel, a democrat from Marion.

“I think it’s going to be harder for women, because it’s a more sensitive issue,” said Angie Johnson also from Marion and a democrat.

But Grawe says she firmly believes, if Cain can make it through the caucuses, the allegations might take a back seat to his economic policies.

“As little traction as it’s gotten,” said Grawe, “I tend to think it won’t come back up again.”

[Las Vegas Ron]

I wonder how Cain does with black voters. Something the left seems to be threatened by.

Wouldn't you just love to see the WH internals on that?

Wonder why the press hasn't released any data on it? /s

[CharlesWayneCT]

I wonder how many more times we’ll see this poll referenced.

[GOPyouth]

"The poll was compiled through phone interviews Nov. 1-13, and surveyed 979 registered Republicans and 277 registered independents. Of those polled, 377 (30 percent) stated that they definitely or probably would attend the Republican caucus Jan. 3."

http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/ISU-Gazette-KCRGTV--Poll-GOP-Caucus-Still-Anyones-Game.html

[justsaynomore]

The 20% that weren't Republican were Independents.

In order to beat Obama, you have to have the independent vote.

He also leads the field among tea party voters in this poll:

[fatnotlazy]

The only women who will be bothered by the allegations are the idiots who watch mainstream media or better yet, barely watch the news at all. They are too busy watching Dancing With The Stars, Biggest Loser or Dr. Phil. They might see that broad on tv with Allred and assume that if a woman making these accusations, why, of course, they must be true. They won't bother to do their own research or even have an independent thought of their own.

[Las Vegas Ron]

Wassa matter, can’t find any more negative Cain articles to post?

[MNJohnnie]

Ok so the most scientific polling, done by professional polling experts at Universities, the people who train other people how to do polling, is suspect but media polls are rock solid gold?

You embrace yourself when you are so transparently, depeately, grasping for a straw to validate your emotion based opinons like that.

[GOPyouth]

My issue isn’t with who is in front on the poll. My issue is that nearly 70% of those polled wouldn’t even say they were probably going to participate.

[org.whodat]

If he takes 5% of the black vote, obummer is fired, if will be that tight in several states.

[justsaynomore]

I don’t remember any article pointing out the women vote.

In any case, I’m sure it hasn’t been posted half the times the Libya pause articles were.

[justsaynomore]

The point of the article is that despite what the news is telling us, women are not abandoning Cain.

[GOPyouth]

The point of the article is that despite what the news is telling us, women are not abandoning Cain.

I won't argue with that. :)

[MNJohnnie]

Nice try GOPbots.

Perhaps if you weren't such reckless, and shameless, liars in your posts people might take you seriously.

http://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2011/nov/ISUpoll

Cain leading Republican presidential candidates among likely caucus goers, with Ron Paul second. However, the poll also suggests that voters are waiting to make up their minds.

[TBBT]

This poll = outlier? Possible? Every other poll and indicator paints a different trend...

Grasping and clinging onto anything than enables further denying of reality....

[Las Vegas Ron]

Nice deflection form the point of my post.

[GOPyouth]

Perhaps if you weren't such reckless, and shameless, liars in your posts people might take you seriously.

What did I say that was a lie? The quote I posted previously is on the link you posted, too. The result? Only 30% of those polled said they would probably or definitely vote.

But, I'm reckless, shameless, and a liar for quoting the damned poll. /s

[opentalk]

Wouldn't you just love to see the WH internals on that? Wonder why the press hasn't released any data on it? /s

The media recently put a spot light on a Poll showing Obama's approval rating is still high with blacks, while also pushing Allred stories against Cain.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Let's just look at the actual poll:

ISU Poll:

With fewer than two months before the Iowa Caucuses, a new Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG poll of 1,256 registered Iowa voters finds Herman Cain leading Republican presidential candidates among likely caucus goers, with Ron Paul second. However, the poll also suggests that voters are waiting to make up their minds.
...
But the race remains remarkably fluid. Respondents were asked how certain they were of their choice and the majority of them (52.3 percent) indicated that they were undecided. Another 30.1 percent answered that they were only leaning toward one candidate. Only 16.5 percent indicated that they had definitely decided whom they would support.
...
Of those polled, 377 (30.0 percent) stated that they definitely or probably would attend the Republican caucus on Tuesday, Jan. 3.

The problem sometimes with university polls is that they aren't well-defined. Most professional pollsters would have reported this poll as a poll of 377 likely voters. If you report it as 1296 registered voters, you are implying that the percentages you give were for the entire group. But if you only are reporting on the 377 that said they were likely, then the 1296 was simply your candidate pool, not your actual survey domain.

The survey information I've seen doesn't actually TELL us which is the case. You have to guess by the words they used.

Because most of the respondents were actually undecided, it appears they asked for "leaning" information to get the actual support values. Only 16.5% of the respondents were certain. SO looking at the "committed" support, you have 84% uncommitted, 4% Cain, 3.2% Paul, 2.5% Romney. 1.3% Perry.

In other words, in their group of 1296 people they contacted, 15 of them said they were sure they were going to caucus AND vote for Cain. 12 Paul, 10, Romney, and 5 said they were sure they were going to vote for Perry.

319 are available to any candidate. So the results are essentially meaningless.

And given that the survey took place over 2 weeks, and the 1st week was when conservatives were reacting angrily to the false attacks on Cain and sending him money and expressing support simply to show solidarity and prove that the liberal media wasn't trusted, it is likely that many of those "15" weren't really as supportive of Cain as you might like.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Here's who actually did the survey -- your "professionals" who "train other people":

The Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG Poll is supported by ISU's Department of Political Science, the Department of Statistics, the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics, the Office of Vice President for Research and Economic Development, and the Office of the Vice President for Student Affairs;