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Posted on 11/09/2011 12:11:28 PM PST by US Navy Vet
I wouldn’t worry about head to head matchups with Zero yet. Whoever wins the nomination, no matter who it is, will get a huge bump with the media coverage. Then there will be the conventions and the debates... not to mention we don’t know what the enthusiasm gap will be. Head to head matchups are completely worthless until at least September 2012. Romney may be the strongest now on the hypotheticals, but I don’t imagine he’ll stir up much enthusiasm.
Wrong, loser..
It’s Iowa + South Carolina = Nomination
And that’s ALL that matters for Cain!
SC since 1980 has determined our nominee and also led to a Florida win. Face it, if Romney loses those early three states (IA, SC, FL) it’s curtains in Rombot Land.
Wrong, loser..
It’s Iowa + South Carolina = Nomination
And that’s ALL that matters for Cain!
SC since 1980 has determined our nominee and also led to a Florida win. Face it, if Romney loses those early three states (IA, SC, FL) it’s curtains in Rombot Land.
Your scenario is certainly possible. I know from past primaries how quickly it can go from boom to bust for any given candidate. There are too many factors to accurately predict how it will go.
At that point they will either fold or lose everything they got on a losing hand, I prefer they lose, and we get some new players in the game.
SC and FL demographics are very different. Using your reasoning one could say that the FL poll is an outlier. An outlier is not determinable until there are other polls published covering the same general time period and same locale.
But I digress, in regards the polls, look back at 2008, when the “sure winner” of the nomination was Rudy Giuliani at this stage of the campaign. It was a “Sure” thing Giuliani would take it early, especially in the South, including Florida. We all know how that one turned out, unless you recently graduated High School and were not much into elections.
SC is a lot blacker and more Christian than Florida. One would think that would play in Cain’s favor. My biggest concern about Florida is Rubio endorsing Romney at the last minute. I hope that doesn’t happen, but my gut tells me it will.
We will see how it all plays out in the coming weeks. These things develop over time, not instant messaging.
People have to talk about it first, and there sure is MUCH to talk about isn’t there? We are up to 5 so far. Will there be more?
Right. Also, a shift or a trend usually shows in a national poll before it shows in state polls. What I’m seeing is that Cain has mostly lost support among women and independents. He hasn’t lost much support among his base, which is why he still leads in most primary polls.
The poll doesn’t include leaners. So they are artificially suppressing the Cain numbers. Neat trick.
Yes, their demographics are different, except for the fact that EVERY OTHER Poll has had Cain stronger in SC than FL.
I would guess that most SC blacks are Democrat, so that probably wouldn’t help or hurt Cain. I don’t recall, is SC an open primary? If so, that will be a factor.
Yeah, Rubio could be the one to tip the nomination, much like Crist did for McCain.
Every other poll has had Cain stronger in SC than in FL.
If the same company polls both using the same method, Cain comes out stronger in SC than FL.
This company is using a different sampling method, which has produced an outlier. We’d expect, if they polled Florida to see Cain down 10.
If they were all winner-take-all, as in 2008, maybe.
But they now allocate delegates proportional to the vote. Meaning that these three states probably won't settle anything.
The one thing that makes the Clemson SC poll hard to compare is it was taken over 12 days, beginning before Politico first published their garbage. The poll is essentially an average of voter sentiment during the media circus.
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