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To: M. Dodge Thomas
What the latest "skeptical" analysis does do is increase our confidence that previous global temperature reconstructions were reasonably accurate

Not when all these studies source the same data set. All you have done is confirm that they analyzed the data correctly. Not that the data was valid in the first place. And any data that does not show the 1970's as cold, is highly suspect.

41 posted on 11/09/2011 2:01:00 AM PST by justa-hairyape
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To: justa-hairyape
"Not that the data was valid in the first place. And any data that does not show the 1970's as cold, is highly suspect."

Again, this is a "time-frame" issue, the data does show that the temps for portions of that period were "stable" or "even" "declining", and as that first graph I posted demonstrates, there have been several periods in the last hundred years when this was the case.

However, those periods are not long enough to be statistically significant for determining the longer term trend.

Think of it as the difference between "cooler” and "cooling" (or “warmer” and “warming”).

In the last week there have been several days here in Chicago that are considerably warmer than is “normal” for the first week in November – the weather has been ”warmer” than expected on the basis of historical records.

Now, I’m happy to enjoy the warmer weather, but it did not stop me from buying a new snow thrower, because I know that it does not mean the weather is “warming” over the July to December time-frame; what I “intuitively understand” is that a week of warmer than expected November weather is not “statistically significant” for projecting the longer term temperature trend.

Same thing with 10 or 15 years of “warmer” or “cooler“ weather: the time-frame is not long enough to determine if there is a longer term “heating” or “cooling” trend.

56 posted on 11/09/2011 6:50:53 AM PST by M. Dodge Thomas
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