Again, this is a "time-frame" issue, the data does show that the temps for portions of that period were "stable" or "even" "declining", and as that first graph I posted demonstrates, there have been several periods in the last hundred years when this was the case.
However, those periods are not long enough to be statistically significant for determining the longer term trend.
Think of it as the difference between "cooler” and "cooling" (or “warmer” and “warming”).
In the last week there have been several days here in Chicago that are considerably warmer than is “normal” for the first week in November – the weather has been ”warmer” than expected on the basis of historical records.
Now, I’m happy to enjoy the warmer weather, but it did not stop me from buying a new snow thrower, because I know that it does not mean the weather is “warming” over the July to December time-frame; what I “intuitively understand” is that a week of warmer than expected November weather is not “statistically significant” for projecting the longer term temperature trend.
Same thing with 10 or 15 years of “warmer” or “cooler“ weather: the time-frame is not long enough to determine if there is a longer term “heating” or “cooling” trend.
Again your post is basically correct. The only thing I would add is that the both the length and amplitude of the natural variation need to be considered to evaluate significance. If the global temperature drops by 2 degrees in the next 5 years, that would be significant (nothing like like ever happened before). It would not necessarily invalidate CO2 warming, but it would punch a big hole in the mitigation arguments.
BEST shows flat lining from the late 1950's to late 1970's. That is false. Wrong. Everyone living during that time frame will tell you the late 60's through most of the 70's was cooler then the late 40's and most of the 50's. That is a fact. Any temperature record that does not show a significant cooling during the 70's is false data.
Think of it as the difference between "cooler” and "cooling" (or “warmer” and “warming”).
You cannot get cooler without some cooling. Where is the significant cooling during the 1970's in the BEST temperature record ?
In the last week there have been several days here in Chicago that are considerably warmer than is “normal” for the first week in November – the weather has been ”warmer” than expected on the basis of historical records.
What matters are all time records being broken, since our records only go back at most about 150 years. And many ski resorts have their earliest openings ever this winter.
And again with the warmer summer/fall weather in the central plains and in the east again. We know that has been occurring. It is in the article this thread is about. Why is the Western mountains setting cold records during the summer and snow pack records during the winter if the overall trend is still accelerating warming ?