Posted on 11/01/2011 6:39:52 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
In Wisconsin, Gov. Scott Walker (R.) rallied Republicans in the state legislature to limit collective bargaining by public employees. In New Jersey, Gov. Chris Christie (R.) coaxed a Democrat-led state legislature to increase public employees’ share of their health-care and pension costs. In Indiana, Gov. Mitch Daniels (R.) secured merit pay for public-school teachers.
But in Ohio, a bill containing all these reforms is headed for defeat in a referendum on November 8. According to an October 25 poll by Quinnipiac University, 57 percent of Ohioans oppose the bill, while 32 percent support it. Meanwhile, its most prominent advocate, Gov. John Kasich (R.), is unpopular: Fifty-two percent disapprove of his performance; 36 percent approve.
Why might the Ohio GOP lose this referendum? Buckeye Republicans say they miscalculated.
First, the legislation is too complicated. Senate Bill 5 is a 302-page conservative wish list: a ban on public-employee strikes, a tightening of standards for union elections, and the elimination of automatic pay hikes, among other things. At first, Governor Kasich wanted to pass these reforms piecemeal — tuck a few into the state budget, add some more by separate legislation.
“We did not want to do the whole thing at once,” says William Batchelder (R.), speaker of the state house. “The governor and I agreed on that.”
Republicans control both houses of the legislature, but legislators have minds of their own. In February, state senator Shannon Jones (R.) introduced the catchall legislation, and state-senate Republicans, confident with their two-thirds majority, muscled it through the chamber. By March, the bill was passed, and the opposition was ready: Senate Bill 5 was a power grab — a pilfering of workers’ rights.
“We let the Democrats control the message,” state senator Keith Faber (R.) laments.
To Republicans’ chagrin. Ohioans support many of the reforms in the bill. For instance, 49 percent agree with instituting merit pay, and 57 percent agree with requiring public employees to pay 10 percent of their wages toward pensions. But as Republicans prepared a budget in the spring, union forces prepared a counterattack. By July, they had collected enough signatures to put the law on the ballot in November.
In August, the state Ballot Board finalized the ballot language (“Shall the law be approved?”), and Republicans again faltered. The board comprises two Democrats, two Republicans, and the secretary of state, Jon Husted (R.). One Republican member, Faber, argued that opponents of the bill should have to vote “Yes” on the referendum. “The other side marketed the referendum on the premise of repealing the bill,” Faber explains. “The question on the ballot should have been, ‘Shall Senate Bill 5 be repealed?’” What’s more, people tend to vote “No” on referenda when confused by its language, so this wording would have advantaged the Republican side. Over 80 percent of state referenda phrased in this manner fail, partly because of this bias.
In an attempt at evenhandedness, however, Husted proposed that the question require opponents to vote “No.” The past twelve referenda had followed this format, according to his office’s records. Matt McClellan, a spokesman for Husted, points out that the vote on the language was unanimous. But Faber explains that because of the board’s structure, Husted had the deciding vote, so once his position was clear, it voted as a unit.
Then there is the campaign. Opposition forces, under the banner “We Are Ohio,” had raised $30.6 million for their effort — and had spent $26.3 million — by the latest filing deadline. (Teachers’ unions alone had contributed $9.7 million.) By contrast, the pro-reform group, “Building a Better Ohio,” had raised only $7.6 million and had spent just $6 million.
“The teachers’ unions are the biggest contributor to their campaign,” notes Connie Wehrkamp, spokeswoman for Building a Better Ohio. “Teachers don’t have a say in whether they’re going to pay their dues; they’re forced to pay them. They can opt out of the union, but they still have to pay ‘fair share’ fees. If we could go out and assess people $54 apiece just to fight an issue, we’d have more resources. But we have to raise money the old-fashioned way.”
Although the pro-reform group’s performance seems underwhelming, it may be impressive for a referendum campaign in an off-year election. Supporters of another issue on the ballot had raised only $255,000 since July, while their opponents had accumulated just $5,100. And despite grumbles among conservatives that Building a Better Ohio was slow in getting organized, Robert Bennett, the Republican national committeeman for the Buckeye State, pooh-poohs their complaints: “You hear that on every campaign.”
And Republicans aren’t conceding the race. “We will have made over 1 million phone calls over the course of the campaign in support of both ballot issues,” says Kevin DeWine, chairman of the state party. “We’ve hired ten full-time staffers to ensure these issues are passed, and we are on track to knock on more than 100,000 doors.”
But one disadvantage is particularly acute: John Kasich. Many Republican governors are currently unpopular because of the economy, but Kasich is especially so. (Walker and Christie, for instance, have seen their approval ratings rise in recent months.) Kasich has earned a reputation for prickliness, thanks in part to occasional outbursts, such as when he called a policeman an “idiot” in a pep talk to state employees.
According to a source familiar with the situation, the pro-reform forces commissioned a focus group led by Frank Luntz that found Kasich’s association with the bill was toxic. In recent weeks, Kasich has taken to the hustings in support of the bill, and unsurprisingly, his critics say, its support has plummeted even further. What’s more, the source says there’s friction between Kasich and Secretary Husted, who have differed on legislative strategy for these reforms. (Jones allegedly worked with Husted’s office in drafting her legislation.)
McClellan denies any tension: “I know the secretary has been asked that before. He has stated that he has a lot of respect for the governor.”
And Bennett thinks the staff may be the problem. “I have not detected anything that the principals have disagreed on, but if you could put tape over the staff’s mouths, it might be better.”
Bennett also defends Kasich: The governor and the legislature have filled an $8 billion deficit without raising taxes. “When Mitch Daniels was doing the things that were necessary he was very unpopular for two years,” Bennett says. “Kasich will be unpopular for a few years, but as his programs take hold he’ll be fine in four years.”
— Brian Bolduc is an editorial associate of National Review Online.
The joke will be on them in a few years after they turn into a union hell hole. Especially after Michigan adopts these sorts of reforms.
This is monsterous.
If this “YES” does not pass, R’s will have to start over piecemeal and do things that way explaining how each hurts the state if they don’t pass. That’s the way this should have been done. All the local commercials (Cincinnati) that advocate voting “NO” on Issue 5 are the “Cops will lose jobs, firefighters won’t come to your house, cops won’t come to your house” types of messages and ours which contradict are weak. I predict sadly losing this and starting over. The sad thing is now I have a much different view of cops and firefighters as they’ve been lied to by the union thugs on what Kasich is trying to do...limit pay, make them contribute to healthcare and pension fund...JUST LIKE THE REST OF US IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR!
This is why we’re called the STUPID Party. We consistently underestimate the desire for public sector to hold on to and protect their goodies and gravy train.
The legislation over-reached, and I think it was an intentional over-reach to eventually kill the bill. If they’d stayed with just pay and pensions instead of getting down into the weeds on everything from seniority to evaluations, then this would have been a clean bill.
Kasich got out-maneuvered by his “republican” legislature.
One miscalculation as well in Ohio is that Ohio teachers do not receive social security in addition to their teacher retirement. Their entire social security contribution goes into the Ohio Teacher’s Retirement fund + their own contribution, so they have been able to argue (correctly) that they HAVE been contributing to their own pensions.
I don’t know who misled Kasich on this, but John Kasich should fire some advisors and change a lot more. He also needs to realize that a rino legislature is not his friend.
Decent folks need to get on the state legislature’s collective ass and STAY ON IT.
I see it all the time here in Michigan. People get angry enough to start forcing change and then they go back to sleep. While they sleep the union gremlins come out and start whispering in the ear of the legislature.
The unions will win this round. And John Kasich hasn’t helped himself or his reform agenda.
Yeah. He needs to bandage up the bullet holes in his feet and start over, doing it right this time.
There’s another initiative..the one that opposes the mandate in Obamacare...surely Ohioan will come out to support this, and most of those will be in favor of the bill to control unions. No one is discussing this..How is it polling?I think this will turn out OK..
No he should not.
He should entirely change it and trim it down to deal with only pay and pension.
One welcome addition in Ohio would be to get education funding off the backs of property owners and make some attempt to get cash from the drug dealers and welfare kings and queens who get SSI for everything from "bad back-itis" to "Adult ADD."
Education in Ohio should be funded by a separate sales tax for that purpose only. Period. Property owners fund it entirely. That's simply not fair....nor practical in rural areas.
Absolutely. See #11.
Police and Firefighters unions have convinced all that the streets will be less safe if the issue passes. They are running commercials of 911 calls that say that all officers are busy and that they can’t be there for 15 minutes. The guy should lock himself in his room until then.
Another commercial has a cop giving home safety tips...like lock your doors, install batteries in your smoke alarms, and vote NO on Issue 2.
It’s disgusting, but Issue 2 is going to get crushed by 20 points. People are terrified to be thought of as “against the cops”.
Problem is, it can become a chicken or egg argument. All of the money in this equation....salary, pension, social security, and employer contributions come from the same fountain: Taxpayer money.
Dragging fire and police into this mess was a mistake.
Kasich has a big mouth and doesn't know how to keep it shut when necessary.
I'm always amazed when people tout Kasich for VP. There are days when he gives Biden a run for the money with his unscripted remarks.
Ohio ping
Greetings mmichaels1970:
So they’re using firefighters as human shields? How to work the Facebook social media supporting SB5.
Ask someone to help you understand why volunteer firefighters would oppose SB5? Over the last 25 years, FF unions have lobbied hard, at state and national levels, to put volunteers out of business.
Ask a trade union member to explain how they feel about off-duty “union” FF’s scabbing in their trade? Seems they’re paying for FF insurance/retirement and career firefighters are under bidding their work.
Ask a tradesman what happens when a FF falls out of bed at the firehouse. Did they know, when it comes to workman’s compensation claims, the union tradesmen also pays the career firefighter’s scab work share? The “union” scab FF unable to work; also collects any theoretical lost wages from missed side work too.
Frankly, I believe the left has overplayed the firefighter human shield angle.
Cheers,
OLA
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