Posted on 10/26/2011 10:45:28 AM PDT by TheBigB
Despite an upside down approval rating, President Barack Obama leads the Republican frontrunners in the crucial swing state of Ohio.
According to a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday, Ohioans would choose Obama over leading Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney by 45 percent to 41 percent, and has a wider lead over candidates Herman Cain and Rick Perry. He leads Perry by an 11-point margin (47 percent to 36 percent) and Cain by 8 points (47 percent to 39 percent).
Obama has widened his lead over Romney and Perry since last month, and this is the first time Quinnipiac has pitted him against Cain. In September, Obama had a narrow 3-point lead over Perry, which he has now tripled. Last month, he and Romney were statistically tied, 44 percent to 42 percent, but the president has edged forward since.
These gains come in spite of Obama’s underwater job approval rating in the state, with just 43 percent saying they approve of his job performance and 51 percent saying they disapprove. He is particular unpopular among independents, 55 percent of whom disapprove of his performance while just 35 percent approve.
Romney is the Republican candidate who appears to have most successfully wooed that important demographic, and they break for him 43 percent to 36 percent when he is pitted against Obama. If Cain is the nominee, independents are split between him and the president, with 40 percent going to each. Perry, however, holds little appeal for independent voters. Independents choose Obama over him 40 percent to 35 percent.
Among Republicans, Cain is the favorite for the nomination, getting 28 percent of the vote, followed by Romney who gets 23 percent. Perry’s fortunes, on the other hand have fallen and he now sits at 4 percent, down from 20 percent last month. Cain has seen the opposite progression, jumping 21 points in the state since last month. Meanwhile, Romney has remained constant. Ron Paul holds third place in the state with 8 percent, closely followed by Newt Gingrich with 7 percent.
Cain, who was written off by many as a flash in the pan, has nonetheless maintained his standing in recent polls. Public Policy Polling found him leading the field in Wisconsin, and narrowly trailing Romney in Nevada. A New York Times/CBS poll released Wednesday found him leading nationally.
The Quinnipiac poll is based on a survey of 1,668 Ohio voters from October 17 to October 23, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. The sample of Republican primary voters included 542 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points
542 of 1668 equals 32.5% Republicans. But that is still under-representation in Ohio.
Were these adults, registered voters or likely voters?
Obama won Ohio in 2008:
51% for Obama
to
47% for McCain
But today, with a far worse economy, with much reduced popularity he will beat all Republican comers with no less than double the margin he beat McCain?
That must be why the state continues to elect democrats to leadership such as John Kasich. The state has obviously become much more liberal since 2008. Yeah, Ohio is in the bag for Obama. In fact, I think it would be unwise to spend any money in such an obvious win state for Obama /sarc
Conversely, the poll could just be awful and painfully biased. Some of it is just a lack of familiarity with the candidates but the idea that Obama would win by a greater margin than 2008 seems plainly ridiculous. What has he done or what has happened in Ohio that would bring about such a result? I see less than nothing to answer that question.
I’m sure if we poll enough democrats, democrats win— but as long as the democrats are not able to throw out all the Republican votes as they regularly do in places such as Cleveland, I bet it will be rather difficult for Obama to win Ohio.
Notice that it is “Ohio Voters” not “Likely Voters”. That too has a significant impact.
The only thing that would rescue him is if the Republicans were dumb enough to nominate a squishy, mealy-mouthed, two-faced, allergic-to-principle, Ruling Class establishment type who will compromise with and be congenitally nice to Democrats even while they accuse him of eating babies and boiling senior citizens alive.
But the Republican leaders couldn't possibly be that stupid, could they?
So who paid for the poll? I never heard of this company.
I tell people this all the time too. People are angry at Obama, but they arnt exactly jumping up and down with excitement from any of the GOP candidates. This will be a tough election.
Ohio and Florida are MUST WIN STATES! If the GOP loses those two, the electoral math is basically impossible to win. The GOP would have to sweep the rest of the swing states PLUS steal a few upset blue states. And what are the issues in Ohio and Florida? High unemployment, and especially in Florida...a mortgage meltdown.
This is why the left is energizing the unions in Ohio, and Obama is now offering mortgage relief. It’s for states like Florida and Nevada. If the GOP opposes any kind of mortgage relief, they will lose ground in Florida and Nevada. Those states are drowning in mortgage debt.
The poll was taken of 1,668 registered OH voters, which makes it more representative than a poll of “adults”, most of which are worthless in terms of electorally predictive value. Sample skews were favorable to Democrats, though - too many women, too few Republicans, and also, too many people from NE Ohio (including Cleveland) at almost 40% of the total sample.
Maybe not, but I have always felt that one election cycle doesn't necessarily indicate how a state will vote in the next one. I believe that Obama will carry Wisconsin next year, regardless of whom the GOP nominee is. I would be very happy to be wrong on that.
And I didn't post this to say that Obama has Ohio "in the bag" necessarily, but merely to indicate that he will not be as easy to beat as some seem to think. :^)
GOP 26% and Rats 33%? The actual registration percentages in Ohio as of 2010 were GOP 37%, Rats 36%. So... add about 40% to the GOP totals and 10% to the Rat totals. Then factor in the independents.
Obama isn’t “leading” anyone in Ohio.
I live in Ohio and I do not bee live this poll.Isn’t Quinnipac the one who said Kerry would win in 2004 by 15%?
I live in Ohio and I do not believe this poll.Isn’t Quinnipac the one who said Kerry would win in 2004 by 15%?
Take these polls with a grain of salt. On the one side we have Obama. On the other side we have Cain, Romney, maybe Perry, and maybe Newt, with the remaining candidates hoping to pay off their campaign debt. When it comes down to a Cain or Perry candidacy against Obama, poll numbers will change. That isn’t to say that Republicans are going to have a walk in the park, but Obama is very beatable.
I think it is a great mistake to count the current clown in chief out of the 2012 election. I think the odds of his winning reelection are about 75%.
Huh? Quinnipiac (University) has been a huge polling player for over 20 years.
Right now, everything related to politics in Ohio is all in one basket: Issue 2. When the dust settles from that in a few weeks, then the talk will get serious about the presidential race.
Hardly. 12% black.
No president gets reelected with 9.1% (or 18% real) unemployment, a 38% approval rating and $14 trillion debt.
If Kasich does not win that battle I'm not sure in the long run it matters who is elected.
Yeah, fortunately many of us know exactly how these bastards operate.
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