Posted on 10/11/2011 3:18:34 PM PDT by Kaslin
Greetings from the picturesque campus of the Ivy League's Dartmouth College, the site of tonight's Republican presidential tilt. The Tipsheet will have live coverage of the event, which kicks off at 8:00 pm ET and airs on Bloomberg television (time to break out the TV guide, I suspect). Before you read my take on what to watch for tonight, check out the latest poll from Gallup, which puts the three top-tier candidates within five points of eachother.
Storylines
(1) Iran: Although the debate is supposed to focus almost exclusively on economic issues, today's breaking news bombshell that the Iranian government has been caught financing and coordinating terrorist attacks against targets inside the United States should absolutely be addressed. The candidate with the most granular understanding of the issues at play on this subject is Rick Santorum. I'm eager to hear what he, and all of his rivals, have to say. (Except for Ron Paul, who doesn't think Iranian nuclear aggression is a biggie, and who will find some way to blame us for Iran's poisonous treachery). Another wrinkle: Could Eric Holder's involvement in this story provide an opening for someone to finally raise Solyndra and/or Fast & Furious in one of these debates?
(2) Chris Christie's endorsement of Mitt Romney will likely get some play. Will Rick Perry -- or someone else -- pull the Northeastern RINO card? A Perry spokesman has already come pretty close.
(3) Mormonism: Rick Perry was recently introduced at an event by a pastor who has called Mormonism a "cult." Today, Mitt Romney demanded that Perry repudiate this view, arguing that the Consitution forbids a religious test for the presidency, and that anti-Mormon bigotry is ugly and has no place in American politics. A Perry spokesman has already declined to acede Romney's request, calling the issue a "distraction." I'll be stunned if this kerfuffle doesn't spill over into the debate, and Rick Perry had better be prepared with a damn good answer.
(4) Occupy Wall Street questions are almost inevitable. The base cannot stand the mob of hippies, communists, anti-capitalists, and sundry lefty hangers-on who comprise the bulk of the "movement." Organized labor and the Democrat Party establishment are getting on board, too. He (or she) with the best Occupy Wall Street-related zinger might win one of the biggest headlines tomorrow.
Candidates
Mitt Romney - The former Massachusetts Governor is in his own backyard, leading in the polls, and feeiling buoyed by the Christie "get." Deep down, he knows that Rush is right: Absent a tactonic shift in the race, Mitt will be the Republican nominee. His goal is to keep things moving on the current trajectory. It will be interesting to see if anyone besides Rick Perry will try to jolt Romney out of cruise control.
Herman Cain - With first-tier status comes first-tier scrutiny (and first-tier stage positioning). Expect more exploration of Cain's 9-9-9 tax plan, which I called for in an earlier post. It's been fascinating to watch the Romney-Cain partnership develop over the last few debates. Neither one has anything bad to say about the other, with Rick Perry hardest hit. At some point, if Cain is going to win this thing, he's going to have to attack his ally. Will that first salvo come tonight?
Rick Perry - The guy is still raking in major bucks and has never lost a campaign in his life. Reports of Perry's demise are -- for now -- premature, but the comeback train has to leave the station soon. Perry's campaign unleashed a brutal attack ad against Romneycare this week. Almost on cue (arguably, directly on cue), the White House has leaked the story that several top Romney healthcare advisors were actively involved in crafting Obamacare. If ever there were a time to really tee off on the frontrunner, tonight would be the night. Perry's probably got the most to gain, and he seems to enjoy mixing it up, so he'll likely lead the charge. But will be be able to pull it off succinctly and convincingly, unlike his slow-motion trainwreck in Orlando? The good news: Perry's son says his dad will be "well-rested" this time.
Newt Gingrich - I briefly heard Newt compare Occupy Wall Street to the Tea Party movement on a local radio show this morning. I wonder what he means by that, and whether he's read Ann Coulter's column on the subject.
Rick Santorum - The former Senator's expertise and greatest appeal to primary voters lie in the realms of foreign affairs and social issues. Does this mean he'll he flounder in an economic debate? Not at all, but he may feel less relevant.
Jon Huntsman - He needs a strong showing in New Hampshire to justify the continuation of his campaign, so Romney's the guy to beat. But some anti-Mormon rhetoric has seeped into this race over the last few days, and Huntsman might join forces with Romney to beat it back.
Michele Bachmann - One of her previous high water marks came here in the Granite State, when she made a stellar debate debut in June. She'll try to recapture the magic tonight.
Ron Paul - The retiring Texas Representative says many of his "extreme" views of three years ago have been vindicated by intervening events, and have now gained broader credibility and acceptance. He'll have another chance to explain why tonight.
Tonight's debate is being co-sponsored by Bloomberg, the Washington Post, and a local television station. Between Romneycare, Mormonism, and the "Occupy" mob, there could be major fireworks on tap. Tune in, and follow our live chat here at Townhall.
Less than 1% of the population has even heard of his plan. He is smart to put it out there over and over again.
Agreed Newt looks better and better all the time. Cain lost me with Greenspan
Over 15 years ago, Jack Kemp was telling America that Greenspan was bad and that we needed to replace him. No one listened.
Well, what da ya all think? It wasn’t enough to help Perry. Is it his back? Pain? Seems like Perry was shut out of the first half and spoke in Palin-like generalities which I despise. Newt is the brain, obviously, and by far the most experienced. He should be leading Romney by a mile, and Romney in my opinion is a socialist leaning RINO climber. Cain supports him and is looking at the long game since he knows smartly how this thing is going down—Romney early. He wants on his ticket, but Romney may take Christie. Cain is a player. Perry has the goods and can’t sell ‘em. Thought maybe he left i-n-g off too many words to sell in Dartmouth. Where are we now?
A friend called and we agreed Romney was given the most time to talk but there really was very little of substance.
Well, so did Obamacare, but it was passed wasn’t it?
I don’t know if Cain hurt himself...but, he didn’t stand out like a lot of people were hoping he would ...you can’t just say 9 9 9 over and over ...it makes you seem gimmickyCain has no organization and no electoral experience. To overcome those huge obstacles he needs to stand head and shoulders above the rest.
He didn't do that. He looked quite pedestrian to me.
He's a good guy. I like him. I wish him well. I hope he goes far.
There is another side to the Newt story: http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/kevin%e2%80%99s-korner-the-truth-about-newt-nein-nein-nein-and-titanium-spines/
He's the Log Cabin Republican candidate.
Jack Kemp was a good guy
He tried but was cut off, did you see that?
I agree Newt is the only one on that stage that actually knows what’s going on and how to fix it. The man is amazing and needs to be put in charge of SOMETHING! I don’t know if he has any chance at winning, but for christ sake put that man in charge of SOMETHING!
Creating a business climate that brings businesses BACK to America is not on topic. Yeah right.
And risk the ire of their core voters of poor white trash and ghetto rats who will finally find out that THEY are finally about to be affected by a Democrat tax increase?
I would love to see that!
You’re right. Perry is slow. So is Cain, but not as slow as Perry. When I see Perry, I think Bush.
You said it!! In every debate so far, Newt hits home runs, people cheer -- and then the next day they've completely forgotten him. They need to take a fresh look.
I got some good stuff out of it. Let me give you my thoughts and please tell mm yours.
Romney is a stuffed suit who really is more of the same. His answer about only cutting capital gains taxes for those earning less than 200K speaks volumes.
Huntsman with his backhanded comment about religion to Perry just confirms he's an ass.
Paul is right about sound money tied to gold, but he's too much of a one trick pony.
The guys I liked:
Cain is confident and quick witted, but naive.
Gingrich as always soars above the rest because he goes out of his way to elevate everyone.
Bachmann passionate, intelligent and a great life story.
Santorum is sharp and has it right on the role of a family in the solution to poverty.
Perry was right on target on freeing states by blockgranting funds, tort reform, the need for a real energy policy and a great life story.
I was happy with Perry's performance and his answers. He is so right on reforming medicaid. I think he did well. Santorum would be a good VP choice, or Gingrich, they both were good.
Maybe make him Whitehouse spokesman?
That is certainly true, although he doesn’t really speak that slowly. I have noticed that when I have a video of Perry and I’m transcribing it, I can type just fast enough to keep up. With Sarah Palin, I always fell behind and had to pause and rewind. I’m a fast typer for a non-typist.
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