Posted on 09/29/2011 6:47:58 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
With all the speculation about possible late entrants into the Republican nomination race, including N.J. Gov. Chris Christie and Fox News analyst Sarah Palin, we've been asked a lot about the deadlines - how long can a potential candidate wait to be a real candidate?
First, remember we still don't even know for sure when the primaries will be. There remains the chance that some states could move from February to January, and any filing deadlines for the ballots could conceivably move too. But it's more than just legal deadlines - a campaign apparatus has to be there, too.
Late October appears to be the latest someone could get in, gear up, and run in the early states, given all the requirements and needs of a campaign. Iowa doesn't really have a state filing deadline because it's a caucus, a gathering of activists who voice a preference during the meeting. Same with Nevada. The New Hampshire filing period is the first few weeks of November (Nov 18th at the latest) but the law seems to allow them to move it. Florida is October 31st. South Carolina is November 1st and would not likely move with a primary date move.
But the real issue for a late entrant is of course the campaign machinery itself. Even a well-funded candidate still needs some folks to go and knock on doors, make phone calls, get the message out, champion them in precinct caucuses, to say nothing of cut ads, buy media, raise money (and comply with all the requirements for doing so) develop policy papers and coordinate something as massive as a presidential campaign. Did we mention raise money? That takes some planning, and probably not one that can materialize right at the deadline. Christie or Palin might be able to overcome that in the short-term, but the rest of the field isn't going to give up that organizational edge when the voting comes around.
That said, remember that the bulk of delegates don't get awarded in the early states - in fact, few do. Those states are all about the less tangible - but critical - idea of momentum. Someone gearing up after them would have to compete against at least one other candidate who was already carrying the label of a winner.
I remember when Patrick J. Buchanan won New Hampshire.
From there he went straight to the White House.
Already way too late for Christie.
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Filing deadlines are starting to come up in a few weeks. It wouldn’t be wise to skip too many.
They are already too late. I don’t like to be kept waiting.
Kinda like sex when the moment has passed.
Maybe some other time.
Are you just posting these to somehow hope that by clapping really loud Tinkerbell will get well?
It isn’t even that the election cycle of today is different than from the past (and it is, big time), but Gov. Palin’s “come here/go away” hesitancy has pissed off a lot of her base, who now think that if this is some sort of Grand Strategy, it is lost on them and rather pointless and manipulative.
There are many, myself included, who find this kind of game playing to be sad in the least and angering in the most.
She has squandered the one thing that takes a long time to build and a moment to lose: goodwill.
by federal law, military ballots have to be mailed 45 days before an election. So as the states start to leapfrog (like Florida did today) that 45 days moves back and back. Basically, they wont even be on the ballot if they don’t get in the race in the next 2 to 3 weeks.
This is all about your gratification?
Quite profound!
But if I talk annointng and mantles it just wierds people out.
We battle not against flesh and blood, but for most of the media circus it appears that we do.
OMG, now that was hysterical! I'm going to have to remember that one, it was BRILLIANT!
I’m already sick of hearing about both of them. I found a good candidate already..... Cain.
And how is it you are so concerned about her “goodwill” or the lack there of? You’re not supporter of hers anyway.
Funny how Reagan didn’t even enter until November and now it’s too late already in September.
Sarah was correct when she said that the end of September was the latest one could start a campaign. I assumed that she was going to run. Bristol Palin said back in June that Sarah “definitely” knew whether she would run or not. Sarah Palin said she rebuked her daughter, “What is talked about on the fishing boat stays on the fishing boat.”
I don’t know what to think now. Conservatives need a champion against the Power Elite candidate Mitt Hussein Perry.
If she wasn't going to run, she would have said so long ago.
She is the most vetted Presidential candidate in history.
There is no need for her to enter until the very last minute, and lots of strategic reasons why that is a winning strategy.
But if your more interested in watching silly debates moderated by silly Democrats and you actually believe we learn anything useful about the candidates that way, then you are pretty much a vegetable and there is no need to try to reason with vegetables.
freedumb...we’ve butted heads in the past but I have to say, your entire comment is completely true.
>>And how is it you are so concerned about her “goodwill” or the lack there of? You’re not supporter of hers anyway.<<
Political observations are neither supportive nor unsupportive. They are observations - denotative (despite emotional reactions from those who disagree).
You may feel free to attack the premise (good luck), but attacking the messenger is, well, lame and a bit sad.
October 31, 2011: The Florida Perimary filing deadline.
Thanks, OW.
I may tease and sometimes drip a bit ‘o sarcasm — but I do try to be honest and objective (except for that “tease” thing).
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