Posted on 09/22/2011 7:08:30 AM PDT by Cardhu
Well, here are a couple of -- no, make that several -- new wrinkles in the Republican presidential contest in New Hampshire:
With the next televised debate tonight in Florida on Fox News, a new poll of likely New Hampshire Republican voters shows Mitt Romney surging to a commanding 27-point lead over his closest GOP rival, who is not Rick Perry.
The Texas governor, whose mid-August entry saw him rush to the top of numerous national Republican polls, was pushed way down in the new Suffolk University Poll to fourth place deep into the single digits, barely ahead of the not-even-running Sarah Palin.
But here's a surprising, potentially significant development for the New Hampshire contest. Jon Huntsman, who's been swimming around the bottom of the field like a foraging flounder barely registering in most polls, has himself surged.
He's moved all the way up to 10% and third place -- ahead of Perry.
According to the new Suffolk University/7News poll of 400, the field there now stacks up this way:
Romney at 41%, up five points since June; Ron Paul at 14% and Huntsman at 10%, both up six points since June; Perry 8%; Palin 6%; Michele Bachmann 5%; Newt Gingrich at 4%; and Rick Santorum and Buddy Roemer both at 1%.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimesblogs.latimes.com ...
27 out of 300? Be still my beating heart...
We “Yankee Liberals” have no sales tax, no income tax and unemployment at about 5%. New Hampshire also has some of the best rated public schools in the country. We are a very low crime state and rated as the best state in the country to raise a family. We are also one of the lowest “union” states in the country.
The reason candidates want IA and NH to continue to be the first states is because the cost to politic in larger states is too expensive. There are only about 500,000 registered voters in NH. The problem is its an open primary.
Independants can choose their party affiliation the day of the primary. This has led to more moderate candidates winning the primary.
When this was posted on National Review Online, I posted a comment that we didn’t need a small NE state with too many yuppies trying to force a liberal former Mass Gov or a democrat who got lost on the way to the primary on the rest of the GOP.
Well, actually I tired to post it. Since it hasn’t appeared 12 hours later, I’m guessing the NE liberal yuppies of National Review decided my comments were too radical...
Maybe, or maybe the survey folks haven't realized yet that NH voters hate surveys and tell them whatever random thought pops into their head - if they don't hang up on them first.
We're getting at least a survey call a day now at our house. Do you think we really want to talk to some bozo about what candidate we favor daily?
Reliable survey data is hard to get in NH, which is why there is usually so much divergence between survey results and primary election results here.
The candidate who can be badly hurt by these results is Rick Perry. If he comes in fourth in the primary and finishes in single digits, he's going to look very weak. He's going to lose a great deal of momentum going into South Carolina and may not be able to win that state. If he finishes fourth behind Ron Paul, that result is going to make his showing seem even worse. South Carolina has a habit of voting for favorites and for "my turn" candidates. In this race, only Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich can make "my turn" claims on the 2012 nomination. If Rick Perry does poorly in New Hampshire, he's going to look less like a favorite and lose even more votes in South Carolina.
I was commenting about the New England Republican voters not the candidates.
You must have missed the election of 2010. Take a look at who got elected and explain to us all how they got elected by "thousands of leftists from MA".
Conservatives and libertarians are hard at work in NH rolling back the ill informed legislation of leftists.
Does my residency disqualify any of the statements that I have made? Where was I picking on a conservative? I'm picking on RINO's. I do not want a liberal state setting the table for the Republican party...simple as that. NH revived McCain's moribund campaign...now look at the mess we are in. I don't think anyone wants to see a second Obama term.
A RINO is a Republican In Name Only. It means someone who calls himself a Republican but hold Democrat views.
Stand firm CASchack! You are not alone!
Mitt Romney had announced he had gained nine endorsements from New Hampshire last week.
Rick Perry announced he had received 27 New Hampshire endorsements yesterday.
(Excerpt)
The following New Hampshire state representatives support Gov. Perry’s candidacy for President:
Rep. Pamela Tucker (R-Greenland), Deputy Speaker
Rep. Pete Silva (R-Nashua), Majority Whip
Rep. Dick Hinch (R-Merrimack)
Rep. Gregory Sorg (R-Easton)
Rep. Andrew Renzullo (R-Hudson)
Rep. Ralph Boehm (R-Litchfield)
Rep. Larry Gagne (R-Manchester)
Rep. Win Hutchinson (R-Manchester)
Rep. Carlos Gonzalez (R-Manchester)
Rep. Kevin Avard (R-Nashua)
Rep. Fred Rice (R-Hampton)
Rep. Ken Weyler (R-Kingston)
Rep. David Lundgren (R-Londonderry)
Rep. Will Smith (R-New Castle)
Rep. Norman Major (R-Plaistow)
Rep. Al Baldassaro (R-Londonderry)
Rep. Mike Kappler (R-Raymond)
Rep. Warren Groen (R-Rochester)
Rep. Spec Bowers (R-Georges Mills)
Rep. Tom Keane (R-Bow)
Rep. John Hikel (R-Goffstown)
Rep. Frank McCarthy (R-Conway)
Rep. David Bates (R-Windham)
Rep. Moe Villeneuve (R-Bedford)
Rep. Elaine Swinford (R-Center Barnstead)
Rep. Randall Brownrigg (R-Hudson)
Rep. Edmond Gionet (R-Lincoln)
Gov. Mitt Romney announced he had gained the support of nine state representatives last week.
“Gov. Perry has the strongest record of any candidate in the race of creating an environment ripe for job growth. While Obama has raised taxes and uncertainty, Gov. Perry has balanced budgets, signed aggressive tort reform, and worked to keep job-killing burdens off of employers,” said Rep. Dick Hinch (R-Merrimack), a former supporter of Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. “Granite Staters know the country is on the wrong track. We need a candidate whose record can contrast clearly with the president’s, and Gov. Perry’s record of leadership can put America on the right track and Americans back to work.”
These endorsements follow previous announcements of support for Gov. Perry by former U.S. Senator Gordon Humphrey; former U.S. Congressman Chuck Douglas; and 2010 GOP Gubernatorial nominee John Stephen.
(End of Excerpt)
Depending on the confidence level (95 or 99), this poll has a margin of error of 4.9 to 6.5. Absolutley awful.
NH? open primaries should be illegal.
Hopefully huntsman will be out of money before the primary.
The second tier candidats are already pulling out of states.
You have hit the nail right on the head. Romney won the 2008 NH Primary among registered Republicans..."independents" went for McCain in sufficient numbers to give him the victory.
Romney was always ahead in New Hampshire, this is not news.
New Hampshire, will be one of the very few states Romney actually wins.
Since you won't name the state you live in I'm pretty sure its a way more liberal state than NH is. Who did the citizens of your state vote for in the last presidential election? Are they a bunch of liberals?
NH is not a liberal state. Take a look at the election results for 2010. Just like every state we've got people who vote Democrat, and people who vote Republican. So your argument that you don't want a liberal state setting the table for the Republican party has nothing to do with New Hampshire.
In 2008 McCain got 3 more delegates from NH than Romney. Of the two which one do you think is more of a RINO?
And don't blame NH for McCain -- lots of other states voted for him in their primaries - remember?
Shock in New England I think not.
>>> A RINO is a Republican In Name Only. It means someone who calls himself a Republican but hold Democrat views.>>>
I respectfully agree - only mostly but not totally.
It is true that all RINO’s hold at least some liberal views. But how many views does it take to be RINO? Or are there specific views that make you RINO automatically? I would say all RINO’s are liberal Republicans - but not all liberal Republicans are RINOs.
Take McCain: he’s pro life, which in some peoples mind puts him on the correct side of the single RINO issue - and yet he is still the quintessential RINO. Why? He actively seeks out the media when he is bashing other Republicans or the Republican base views. Same with Graham and Snow and media types like Scarborough and Brooks and luminaries like Powell and so on. Their careers are defined by their public defiance to the party. It’s what defines them.
Now this is not to say that liberal or moderate REpublicans are a good thing under any circumstance. They are not. For example, Rudy G (and I use him because he’s not runnning so no one will construe this as an endorsement, because it is not) is more liberal than McCain on social issues and probably more conservative on issues of terror, taxes and regulations. Yet Rudy rarely if ever goes out of his way to tick off the base or to trash other Republicans to gain media cred. He just happens to live a liberal life. And ironically, he was more committed to Scalia type judges that Mac would ever be....very ironically.
Conversely, Rudy has put his liberalism aside at times to give stem winding conservative speeches at conventions highlighting where he agrees with the base. McCain and Graham (and Huntsman) have NEVER done that and never will.
But I digress: To me, that makes McCain more of a RINO. It’s a nuanced difference, but if “everyone is a RINO then no one is a RINO.” I’d prefer to save the term for those who actively work against my interests and obviously enjoy the fame they get for doing it. That’s a much worse animal than someone I merely disagree with.
Whatever you say.
And don't blame NH for McCain -- lots of other states voted for him in their primaries - remember?
Certainly you must remember the media slobbering all over McCain after his amazing victory in New Hampshire. That one-sided media coverage has a 'bandwagon effect'; which is their intent. 'Lots of other states' were probably voting for Palin after she joined the ticket...
It is interesting to note how many people are treating this election like a college football game...Texans get a hair across their hindquarters when someone criticizes Rick Perry, and the same applies to some in New Hampshire. I have family in NH that thinks as I do...should I tell them that they need to move since they are not' part of the team'?
Enjoy your day.
Forgot to mention that in my home state; McCain defeated Obama by fifteen percentage points. Conversely; Obama won New Hampshire by ten percentage points. Got some work to do up there... :-)
I agree. It is suicidal insanity to let that state have so much influence.
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