Posted on 09/16/2011 11:23:42 AM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
Before he entered his first debate as a presidential candidate, Texas Governor Rick Perry was the Republican frontrunner and held a modest lead in a hypothetical matchup against President Obama. Perry was the target for all the other candidates in the two most recent GOP debates, however, and he now trails the president by single digits.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Obama picking up 46% of the vote, while Perry earns support from 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) are either undecided or prefer another candidate. Two weeks ago, Perry was up by three. Three weeks ago, the president held a three-point edge over the governor. (To see question wording, click here.)
Now, Perry’s chief rival for the nomination, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, holds a three-point lead on the president. Another GOP hopeful, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, trails Obama by double digits. The fluctuation in Perry's, Romney's and Bachmann’s numbers comes as a Generic Republican maintains a steady lead over the president.
The president’s Job Approval ratings remain consistently in the low-to-mid 40s. As the election draws closer, Obama’s Job Approval will provide a good indication of his likely vote total. If his Job Approval rating is over 50% in November 2012, it will be difficult for any Republican to beat him. If his ratings move into the low 40s or below, it will be difficult for the president to win unless there is a major third-party candidate in the mix.
Perceptions of the economy are likely to play a significant role in shaping the president’s Job Approval ratings. Currently, Americans say their own finances are weaker than the day Obama took office and significantly weaker than in the fall of 2008.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 14-15, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Obama 46% Perry 39% Sep 14-15, 2011
Obama 46% Bachmann 33% Sep 12-13, 2011
Obama 40% Romney 43% Sep 10-11, 2011
Obama 39% Paul 38% Aug 15-16, 2011
Obama 50% Palin 33% Aug 11-12, 2011
Obama 42% Cain 35% Aug 23-24, 2011
Obama 48% Gingrich 30% June 24-25, 2011
Obama 44% Huntsman 28% July 2, 2011
Obama 45% Santorum 31% July 10-11, 2011
Perry trails Obama by 15 percentage points among women and barely leads among men. Perry trails among voters under 40, runs even among 40-somethings and leads among those 50 and older. It’s worth remembering that most voters over 40 voted against Obama in 2008.
Perry currently attracts just 71% of the Republican vote, while the president wins 85% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either party, the race is a toss-up.
In the race for the Republican nomination nationally, the latest national polling shows Perry on top followed by Romney and Bachmann. In Iowa, Perry is also ahead of his GOP rivals.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
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Especially when neither will excite the Right as more comes out about them.
Obama 39% Paul 38% Aug 15-16, 2011
ha!
—He’s always so accurate on election day.—
Yes. However, this isn’t election day.
—The most significant thing here is that Obummer only gets 46%. For an incumbent, that’s a very bad sign.—
I agree. The number that really popped out was the Obama/paul matchup. That was comical.
“No, let’s call socials security unconstitutional at every debate. Not ready for prime time Perry. “
You’re right. Let’s just all be democrats and pander to everyone
The only thing to really say about this poll is it is September 2011. The nominee has not been chosen and until then a lot of people other than us political junkies do not pay attention much less have any idea what a candidate stands for. My god the panic and teeth gnashing is ridiculous.
Polls are for strippers and cross-country skiing :)
After I have drowned three or four scotch on the rocks, I could pull the lever for Romney. Even in a drunken stupor I will not let have the Kenyan socialist have any advantage.
Being accurate on election day doesn't prove that a pollster is accurate way before an election.
It NEEDS to be an issue going into the election. A poster child for what kind of thing has gotten us into the mess we’re in. I suspect it is not the only entitlement that will be placed on the table before the election either. It’s risky. But greater risk brings greater rewards. Besides, the nation (and western world) is going down hard as I type this. The point is kinda moot. SS will be a different issue by early next year. As will medicare, et al.
Yep and for “poll watchers”.
“...more conservative candidate, Perry.”
Except for his pro-illegal immigration positions.
Jimmy Carter lost the 1980 election in large part to his incompetence in the calendar year 1980 itself.
>>> “ Especially when neither will excite the Right as more comes out about them. “ <<<
Rick wants the mud balls slinging as early as possible and they are coming right on time, while he is still working to solidify some support in the South. Trust me, he will do far better than expected with Hispanics as the Nevada endorsement testifies. It will then become hand to hand combat in the northeast. We either fight and carry Rick or we get Romney.
When and where did Perry call SS “unconstitutional?”
Never.
He said it is a Ponzi scheme, a mess, a failure, and the fact that it was passed and the taxes collected were then used to fund all sorts of other programs was “disrespectful of the Constitution.
“Being accurate on election day doesn’t prove that a pollster is accurate way before an election. “
yeah they can give you any BS result they want and nobody would ever know since it isn’t tested against the real world.
” After I have drowned three or four scotch on the rocks, I could pull the lever for Romney. Even in a drunken stupor I will not let have the Kenyan socialist have any advantage. “<<<
Gawd, I luv you! Hilarious! And I think we all agree!
my point a looooong way to go till Nov 2012.
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