Posted on 09/15/2011 11:04:30 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
GOP regulars claim the "electability argument" will deliver the Republican nomination to Mitt Romney. They say things like, "Mitt Romney can win the general election by appealing to the middle. Rick Perry can't win in the suburbs of Philadelphia and Milwaukee."
Simple enough -- but wrong. Romney's no stronger on this front than Perry, the frontrunner in the polls. The core reasons: Perry's support among the party's base, and his strength on the key issues of the economy and job creation.
Based on what we know today, next November's election will be decided on the economy and as a referendum on President Obama's first term. The recent debates have confirmed the GOP nominee will be either Perry or Romney. Significant late entrants into the field are extremely unlikely -- the field is set.
Full disclosure: I recently personally contributed to Perry's campaign, though I opposed him on last year's Texas gubernatorial primary -- and will readily support whoever wins the presidential primaries.
That said, I believe he's objectively the stronger general-election nominee. The GOP primary electorate seems to agree, according to a CNN-ORD national poll released on Monday. Asked which candidate "had the best chance to beat Barack Obama in the general election," registered Republicans gave Perry 42 percent and Romney 36 percent, with the rest of the field (including Sarah Palin) taking 27 percent.
How can this be? Consider what the general election will look like.
Facing a terrible and deteriorating economy and falling approval ratings, President Obama has only one strategic choice: Use his massive financial advantage to go negative -- to make centrist voters fear or hate the Republican nominee.
This path will depress independent turnout, as negative campaigns always do, increasing the power of both party's bases. For a recent example, look no further than 2004.
Facing similarly low approval ratings, the Bush-Cheney campaign immediately branded their opponent a flip-flopper and outside groups ran the damaging Swift Boat advertisements. The result: President George W. Bush won re-election -- by a margin of only 60,000 votes in Ohio.
In other words, Obama's strategy increases the general-election importance of the fact that the GOP base trusts Perry -- and decreases any edge Romney would have with independents.
Then there's the jobs issue. Romney certainly has a deep understanding of international markets and how the private sector works. But as governor his private-sector job-creation record pales next to Perry's 10-year record.
And Perry can present two models to the country:
* A Texas model with 1,000-plus people moving each day to the state has created more private-sector jobs than the other 49 states combined since the economic recovery began. Texas also plugged a huge biennial budget deficit earlier this year without raising taxes, while protecting its $6 billion rainy-day fund.
* A Washington, D.C., model with 9.1 percent unemployment and 25 million people either unemployed or underemployed -- and more Americans on food stamps than ever before. Plus, discretionary spending has jumped 30 percent, creating the two largest single-year deficits in history and leading to trillion-dollar annual deficits for the next decade.
He can ask, "Which model do you want?" This sharp contrast can cut through the president's diversionary attacks.
Romney, meanwhile, will have to spend precious time and energy explaining RomneyCare, dealing with unfortunate and bigoted questions about his Mormon religion and trying to energize a depressed Republican base that views him suspiciously.
Perhaps in a normal year, the more moderate candidate would be the more electable one. But in these times, the GOP needs bold colors, not pale pastels, to win.
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Matt Mackowiak is a Washington- and Austin-based Republican consultant and president of Potomac Strategy Group, LLC. Matt can be reached at matt@potomacstrategygroup.com.
I don’t think he’s a flake. I am grateful he’s served in the military. I just don’t think he’s a very serious or well versed candidate and maybe that’s because he shot up in the polls too quickly. He’s not prepared yet. Perhaps he’ll do better with more debates under his belt. Like I said, I met him in the atmosphere of the *after the debate party*. He was nice, personable and fun.
Taxpayer paid tuition for illegals is NOT making things unfavorable to wetbackery.
When someone says a candidate is not serious, I take that to mean he/she lacks gravitas and immediately the word flake comes to mind. Just the way I think. No problem. ;^)
Your observation that Perry is not prepared enough is more on the mark and I agree.
Is it okay if she declares when she thinks it’s the right time to do it?
I’m not talking about fire in the belly to win political office.
I’m talking about a very different kind of fire in the belly.
And I don’t think he will necessarily take a bribe. But I don’t have the trust in Perry that I have in Palin, based on their records.
And I would guess there are plenty of multi-billionaires out there who would pay a hefty sum if they thought it would give Obama a second term.
And there is no possible way to use false ethics charges against the President in a way that would bring her to personal bankruptcy or drain millions from taxpayers, so that argument is eliminated.
She can decide on declaring whenever.
But 1) She needs to stop spamming me telling me that if we send her enough money, she might run.
And 2) Candidate debates are for declared candidates. I would say that I would much rather see her up there at the debates than Ron Paul, but until she declares she doesn’t qualify.
“She needs to stop spamming me telling me that if we send her enough money, she might run”
Are you sure this isn’t a big fat lie?
So, Perry or Romney?
Both fit the Republican candidate model since Reagan left office, but Perry is an easier sell in flyover country while Romney is an easier sell to either coast and the 'moderate' middle types.
Perry talks a good game, and to some, so does Mittsy, but if you want to really stir things up and put us back on a Constitutional footing, it will take a reformer. And neither Perry nor Romney are that candidate.
It is first a Constitutional issue and the POTUS swears an oath:
"I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."
Article IV, Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution
"The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against invasion;"
It is first a Constitutional issue and the POTUS swears an oath:
"I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."
Article IV, Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution
"The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against invasion;"
I got the spam from SarahPAC this morning. Pretty sure it wasn’t fake, because I checked the headers against prior SarahPAC emails.
Romney because of his health care bill can't get the nod from the GOP base. Once Perry's horrible record on illegals and his pandering to La Raza is known to conservatives, he'll go lower than Bachmann in the polls. He was booed at the debate for his pandering, and it's going to follow him everywhere.
It's just a matter of time, Perry isn't the conservative the Perry supporters think he is and word will get out.
He's like the Trump meteor, riding high in April, shot down in the fall.......
You’re right, but I don’t think the voters are capable of being convinced that Perry is not what he seems.
Did it say “Donate and maybe I’ll run?”
Essentially, yes. Here’s the website it linked to: https://www.sarahpacdonate.com/mb_eb_091311
Text is about the same.
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