Posted on 09/15/2011 11:04:30 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
GOP regulars claim the "electability argument" will deliver the Republican nomination to Mitt Romney. They say things like, "Mitt Romney can win the general election by appealing to the middle. Rick Perry can't win in the suburbs of Philadelphia and Milwaukee."
Simple enough -- but wrong. Romney's no stronger on this front than Perry, the frontrunner in the polls. The core reasons: Perry's support among the party's base, and his strength on the key issues of the economy and job creation.
Based on what we know today, next November's election will be decided on the economy and as a referendum on President Obama's first term. The recent debates have confirmed the GOP nominee will be either Perry or Romney. Significant late entrants into the field are extremely unlikely -- the field is set.
Full disclosure: I recently personally contributed to Perry's campaign, though I opposed him on last year's Texas gubernatorial primary -- and will readily support whoever wins the presidential primaries.
That said, I believe he's objectively the stronger general-election nominee. The GOP primary electorate seems to agree, according to a CNN-ORD national poll released on Monday. Asked which candidate "had the best chance to beat Barack Obama in the general election," registered Republicans gave Perry 42 percent and Romney 36 percent, with the rest of the field (including Sarah Palin) taking 27 percent.
How can this be? Consider what the general election will look like.
Facing a terrible and deteriorating economy and falling approval ratings, President Obama has only one strategic choice: Use his massive financial advantage to go negative -- to make centrist voters fear or hate the Republican nominee.
This path will depress independent turnout, as negative campaigns always do, increasing the power of both party's bases. For a recent example, look no further than 2004.
Facing similarly low approval ratings, the Bush-Cheney campaign immediately branded their opponent a flip-flopper and outside groups ran the damaging Swift Boat advertisements. The result: President George W. Bush won re-election -- by a margin of only 60,000 votes in Ohio.
In other words, Obama's strategy increases the general-election importance of the fact that the GOP base trusts Perry -- and decreases any edge Romney would have with independents.
Then there's the jobs issue. Romney certainly has a deep understanding of international markets and how the private sector works. But as governor his private-sector job-creation record pales next to Perry's 10-year record.
And Perry can present two models to the country:
* A Texas model with 1,000-plus people moving each day to the state has created more private-sector jobs than the other 49 states combined since the economic recovery began. Texas also plugged a huge biennial budget deficit earlier this year without raising taxes, while protecting its $6 billion rainy-day fund.
* A Washington, D.C., model with 9.1 percent unemployment and 25 million people either unemployed or underemployed -- and more Americans on food stamps than ever before. Plus, discretionary spending has jumped 30 percent, creating the two largest single-year deficits in history and leading to trillion-dollar annual deficits for the next decade.
He can ask, "Which model do you want?" This sharp contrast can cut through the president's diversionary attacks.
Romney, meanwhile, will have to spend precious time and energy explaining RomneyCare, dealing with unfortunate and bigoted questions about his Mormon religion and trying to energize a depressed Republican base that views him suspiciously.
Perhaps in a normal year, the more moderate candidate would be the more electable one. But in these times, the GOP needs bold colors, not pale pastels, to win.
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Matt Mackowiak is a Washington- and Austin-based Republican consultant and president of Potomac Strategy Group, LLC. Matt can be reached at matt@potomacstrategygroup.com.
More money will start shifting to Perry now.
Romney wears magic underpants.
Perry is pro-life, pro-gun, pro-jobs and pro-God.
I have never heard of Perry wearing any magic underpants.
YES!!!!
The Democrats sure seem to think so. They are usually pretty right in who they work hardest to destroy.
My first pick is Sarah, but would happily pull the lever Perry if he's the candidate. If Mittens slimes his way in...well, let's just not go there right now.
I think Perry would win a higher popular vote total, but I think Romney may put another state or two in play that Perry may struggle in, PA and MI perhaps.
I think either would beat Obama, which is why it is important to make sure we nominate the more conservative candidate.
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Was Obama more electable than Hillary?
of course.
romney still cannot spin himself out of romneycare.
Facing a terrible and deteriorating economy and falling approval ratings, President Obama has only one strategic choice: Use his massive financial advantage to go negative -- to make centrist voters fear or hate the Republican nominee.
This would be harder to do against Romney than Perry, so in the end, I think Romney would have a somewhat better chance of winning states like Michigan, PA, WI, MN, NJ, or anywhere in the Northeast...
Perry, OTOH, for several reasons (including those not as popular on FR) would perform strongly enough among Hispanics compared to Romney, that most of the western states that went Blue would go GOP again in '12, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, and performs better the South overall, putting VA and NC back in the GOP column (although Romney probably performs better in N VA, Perry would motivate the "real" Virginia to the polls better, and make it a wash or net benefit).
They took their best shots at Perry and he is still standing.
The R establishment needs to ask if Mittens can carry Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio. It would be a close run thing.
Perry will take Florida too.
Good points.
As I said above, I think Perry would win a larger % of the popular vote, but Romney may pick up an extra state or two in the Midwest.
Either will beat Obama.
The R establishment needs to ask if Mittens can carry Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio. It would be a close run thing.
I think so.
I could vote for Perry and probably not feel the need to wear more than one or two bags over my head when I went to the polls.
I’d need to start saving grocery bags TODAY if I wanted to have enough to wear on my cranium to go vote for Romney in 2012.
But are either of them more electable than Palin?
Just wait till the time comes when the three of them have to sit down together in debate.
But, if the election was TODAY, instead of 14 months from now, the answer is "yes."
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