Posted on 09/15/2011 2:56:13 AM PDT by lbryce
Most of the political prognosticators are focusing on whether Obama can be re-elected if the unemployment rate is still near 9 percent by election day next year, but most of the fancy quantitative political science models suggest that this is the wrong variable (or perhaps the dependent variable if you are into multiple regressions). Most of the models find that the most important economic factor is income growth. If incomes are falling, or growing very slowly, incumbents or the incumbent party usually loses. I’ll put in my caveat here that I’m a skeptic of these kind of quantitative political science models on several grounds, not least of which is that the sample size of presidential elections is just too small to call these model results definitive or statistically robust. But Democrats pointing to Reagan’s landslide re-election in 1984 amidst still high unemployment (still over 7.5 percent on election day) miss that personal income had been growing very fast for more than a year before the election in 1984.
Caveats noted, this morning’s Wall Street Journal brings multiple doses of horrible news for Obama and the Democrats on this front. The lead story is that household income has fallen to 1996 levels when adjusted for inflation. Some of the internal details of the story are even more worrisome: “Earnings of the typical man who works full-time year round fell, and are lower—adjusted for inflation—than in 1978.” So what does Obama want to do? Raise taxes of course.
Meanwhile, Republican Bob Turner won the special election to replace Anthony Weiner in the heavily Democratic district in New York City—the first time a Republican has won that seat in a century. Yet the chairwoman of the DNC, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, gamely tried to shrug it off saying, “It’s a very difficult district for Democrats.”
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
My biggest concern is that it is my understanding that this next election will be based on 7 swing states. If the punk POTUS springs his $1B war chest on those 7 states, and enacts enough fraud and intimidation at urban polling sites, there may mot be much that we can do.
Obama and the DEMS will SPEED up the Destruction Process now that Panic has set in.......although, I believe Obama thinks he’s INVINCIBLE!
Yeah. All the smoke and mirror bogus b.s. speeches will not save Humpty Dumpty nor put him back together again.
Of course, first they have to convince Democrats they can win, and well, did anyone buy that ‘jobs bill’? Nope, not even the Democrat Majority in the Senate. Now they have to convince or discourage another Democrat from seeking the nomination.
“I believe Obama thinks he’s INVINCIBLE!”
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Yes, narcissistic man child types never understand.
God only knows what will happen over the next 12 months, and he is not talking.
Relax, ain't gona happen.
ZERO is toast
I don't think he will carry one single State.
None, Nada, Zip
Let’s hope the feels last until 2012.
He giving us some big HINTS though!!
“He giving us some big HINTS though!!”
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Yes, that is what is dangerous with one like Obumbo.
They live in another world, so we do not know what he will do when forced into a corner.
There is always something we can do - do not give up hope. Resist Tyranny.
If by “panic time” one means “chopping up the prescriptions and snorting them off the Resolute Desk”, then yeah. Thanks lbryce.
Everything you said is on the money....that is one heck of a sentence!
He might carry his home state. Of course, Kenya has no electoral votes, yet.
Thanks for your very kind words.
Upon reading your comments, I said to myself, “Oh no! not another long-winded, one-sentenced post!” I always try to make sure not to post one-sentenced comments like the one I just did if only from a punctuation, grammatical point-of-view. It’s that I got all wrapped up in the intensity, emotionalism of what I wanted to convey, rush to get the article posted. :-) Thanks for pointing it out!
I do it every time I post. These are exciting times for us at FR.
Pray and TRUST God.
Don't count him out just because he's destroying our economy and security. There are more important things.
Kenyans may not have electoral votes, but they are here, living in public housing.... and playing golf.
depends on how much vote fraud they can pull off, and how many are dependant on the gov’t for their monthly handouts
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