Posted on 09/05/2011 8:57:37 AM PDT by blam
Goldman: The US Economy Described In 5 Lines
Joe Weisenthal
Sep. 5, 2011, 6:37 AM
From Goldman's Andrew Tilton, the state of the economy right now.
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1. The US economy has not fallen off a cliff, despite the “confidence shock” precipitated by the debt ceiling impasse, the downgrade of the US sovereign rating, and the financial market turmoil of recent weeks.
2. The August employment report was weak but not recessionary. The payroll survey was very disappointing, with no job growth, a drop in weekly hours, and a decline in hourly earnings. But the household survey posted a decent gain and the unemployment rate held steady at 9.1%.
3. So far in the third quarter, “hard” indicators of economic activity look a tad better than our forecast of 1% real GDP growth (annualized), while “soft” measures such as business surveys look weaker. Recession remains a substantial risk but not our base case forecast.
4. The economy’s growth performance so far in 2011 would be disappointing in any year, and is woefully unacceptable given the high level of unemployment. So we expect the Fed to take further action at its September 20-21 meeting, most likely by announcing that it will extend the duration of its securities holdings by selling shorter-dated securities for longer-dated Treasuries.
5. We expect the impact of such a balance sheet “twist” to be similar to QE2. Given widespread speculation of further Fed action, and a very dovish set of minutes from the August meeting, we believe this impact is largely (though not completely) “priced in” to markets at this point.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
an oliver twist to you.
Joe here is a lefty,Nothing is ever wrong in Obama land that Printing money will not cure!
He neglects to mention a key factor that is destroying our confidence in the economy and dragging the nation over a cliff: the avalanche of needless regulations that are crippling American industry. This regulatory burden is not going away anytime soon. And then there's the crushing deficit, another confidence killer.
There is another post or elsewhere on the net describing Goldman’s report to it’s high volume clients that states a rather different scenario-— a complete crash in early 2012.
So this little bit of pablum must be for the “consumer” investor.
Got anything on that other report from Goldman? Seriously.
Might be on zero hedge or seeking alpha, but I caught it in passing.
One man’s “twist” is another taxpayers “screw”.
Goldman does NOT move the economy, all of US as investors do.
Goldman can spew all they want, the economy will follow all of US, not what Goldman says it's going to do.
It’s here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903895904576542703587784540.html
(requires WSJ login)
Even Goldman Sachs Secretly Believes That An Economic Collapse Is Coming
Even Goldman Sachs is doing it again. Goldman is telling the public that everything is going to be just fine, but meanwhile they are advising their top clients to bet on a huge financial collapse.
Obviously an “useful idiot” for the 0bama.
Goldman is famous for screwing retail investors with bait and switch tactics. Mr. Tilton does nothing to disturb this view.
I was 15 when that song came out in 1958.
1. The US economy has fallen off a cliff, leading to the “confidence shock” precipitated by the debt ceiling impasse, the downgrade of the US sovereign rating, and the financial market turmoil of recent weeks.
2. The August employment report was weak and very recessionary. The payroll survey was very disappointing, with no job growth, a drop in weekly hours, and a decline in hourly earnings. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.1%, an abysmal failure.
3. So far in the third quarter, the truth of economic activity looks far worse than our forecast of 1% real GDP growth (annualized) and “soft” measures such as business surveys look weaker. We are in a double-dip Recession.
4. The economy’s growth performance figures so far in 2011 are entirely fraudulent which is woefully unacceptable given the high level of unemployment. We expect the Fed to take further action at its September 20-21 meeting, most likely by announcing a bastardized form of QE3, but it will be called something else so stupid Americans won't realize that we are simply printing more money.
5. We expect the impact of such a balance sheet “twist” to be similar to QE2. Given widespread speculation of further Fed action, and a very dovish set of minutes from the August meeting, we believe that Americans are complacent and have been completely fooled at this point.
The twist is $1900 gold again today. The QE is going from short term to long term. The US cannot afford the interest on $15 trillion debt. So, print money, loan it long term to the government at low rates, and with no stimulation in demand, low interest rates long and short term, continued high unemployment, continued triple deficits, continued gold prices rising, continued weakening dollar and euro and relatively robust oil prices. Stagflation without the flation.
an oliver twist to you
Timothy Geithner speaks...
“Please, sir, I want some more”
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