Recession Is Not In View But Economy Is Ugly

Seeking Alpha ^ | 8-21-2011 | Steven Hansen

[blam]

Recession Is Not In View But Economy Is Ugly

Steven Hansen
August 21, 2011

Every day recently, readers have had to digest a growing number of pundits screaming “upcoming recession” giving a cacophony of reasons. Other than a horribly weak economy, there are no major signs indicating an outright contraction.

As I have stated previously, a discussion of whether the USA is in a depression would be more pertinent. In a depression, there are no economic drivers for expansion – and the economy flops around (one step forward, on step back).

One year ago, we were worried the economy was in danger of recessing, and the same event is occurring this year (a new seasonality not considered in the BEA methodology?). The difference last year was that stimulus spending was peaking, inventory was rebuilding, and lower oil prices kept GDP looking pretty – even though it was just a real ugly pig with some glossy lipstick. This year GDP looks as ugly as it really is with stimulus disappearing and cutbacks at federal, state and local levels. The lipstick has worn off.

GDP is expressed in a manner that New Normal seasonal distortions could be effecting the quarterly releases. The recent revision of GDP going back several years adds credence to this view. As this same event happened last year, it behooves us to be more prudent before making a recession call.

As readers know, we focus on the transport sector, which we consider a coal mine canary for the economy.

Employment in the transport sector is currently growing stronger – and normally a year or more before a recession – the transport sector growth rate begins to contract. And notice the turning points at the end of a recession are among

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[blam]

It’s been fifty years since I studied this but I believe this writer gets the words ‘affect’ and ‘effect’ backwards...or, is it me that’s backwards?

[whitedog57]

Looks similar to this guy’s graphs:

Http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

But Sanders’ graphs are more compelling. We are in the aftermath of an Austrian credit bubble.

[Captain Peter Blood]

Afraid this guy is as Clueless as the rest. We have been in an economic crisis since the Tech Bust in 2000, no growth and a negative GDP. For all intents we have been in a Depression and the main reason we haven’t seen all out unrest is the government safety net.
But the money has run out and the borrowing can’t continue at these levels.
All I an say is the safety net will evaporate and then what???

[nascarnation]

One thing that looks certain to me is there will be no rebound that bails out Baraq a year from now.

He “owns” the economy and on election day 2012 is will still stink.

[RegulatorCountry]

You’re correct, the author erred.

[Buffalo Head]

I can see it from here.

[rjsclassics]

It hurts to say this but all indicators point to a recession right around the corner. Obama will pay the price regardless. He is a clueless loser.

[familyop]

"As readers know, we focus on the transport sector, which we consider a coal mine canary for the economy."

From the chart, "All Employees: Trade, Transportation and Utilities." That's pretty funny. It's a good thing that the Chinese and other trading partners continue to give our government employees (including local through federal funding) both the products and money to buy them.

The slow motion dive through alternately choking and inflating the economy is deceiving. There's a big currency and bond collapse sometime in the near future (during the next couple of years, maybe?). Have fun. Prepare, then enjoy the slide.

Now don't you look at that manufacturing sector, Hansen. Keep the propaganda coming, while we're shipping extra food from big ag to drought-stricken, commie nations.

[Alas Babylon!]

That uptick on the GDP on the second slide was due to phoney government AKA PORKulus. It’s not sustainable!

To not note that is fraudulent.

[Alas Babylon!]

I meant the writer of the article is fraudulent, not you, Bill!

[familyop]

"All I an say is the safety net will evaporate and then what???"

Since the "green revolution," our big agriculture corporates have become quite bigger and much more linked to government. Americans will be fed.

But government employees with degrees (local included--very government linked) will live in ever more lavish luxury and rule harshly against (steal from and incarcerate) all who try to make an honest private living. It's already happening.

...unless enough of us become much more self-sufficient on energy and food for ourselves and our families while learning to get along with our few better neighbors (and watching for more to fall from the middle class). We must become more nonpolitical, starve the beast and learn to produce the things that we need.

IMO, most people are going to become turf for the nonproductive elite to walk on and torture for kicks.

[Atlas Sneezed]

I agree about being in a crisis since 2000. Here's a more honest view of GDP, without the all the dishonest adjustments:

[blam]

"I meant the writer of the article is fraudulent, not you, Bill!"

No problem... I knew what you meant.

[blam]

And....unemployment at 22.9%

[central_va]

If you subtract the excess govt. spending in ‘09,’10 and ‘11 about $1.4T per year, real GDP is about -5%.

[Venturer]

Recession isn’t in the future, it’s here, it’s now.

[LibLieSlayer]

DEPRESSION and anything else is a damnable lie.

LLS

[blam]

Why The Current Bear Market Is Far From Over

"We, therefore, believe that the market has now entered a major downtrend. It is a mistake to dismiss the slide we’ve seen to date as mindless and devoid of fundamentals as many strategists maintain. These are not just scary headlines—-they are scary fundamentals."

[cranked]

Recession is not in view cause we never got out of the initial recession, blind, deaf, and dumb Hansen. =.=