Posted on 08/07/2011 4:24:22 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
In 1986, I was running the Texas Democratic Party primary, and in walked an attractive rancher who submitted his filing to run as a Democrat for state representative for a district in rural West Texas. That rancher is now the state’s Republican governor, Rick Perry. I have known him for 25 years off and on, and I know his staff very well. And Perry is about to become a dominant force in the Republican nomination process for president.
Nearly a year ago, I wrote a column for National Journal saying that we need to watch out for Perry, that he would make a formidable presidential candidate, even though he had expressed no interest at the time in running. But the political environment and the Republican field made me think that Perry could have a legitimate shot.
Many people have asked me what kind of candidate he will be, or how I think his campaign will do if he makes the leap and enters the race.
Having observed and known the governor, both as a Democrat and as a Republican, through 13 election cycles, I offer a primer on Perry in five key points:
1. He is an extremely astute politician with a keen sense of where voters are, and he has great instincts on message. Perry has ruthless discipline and communication. They say in politics, “Don’t let your boot off an opponent’s neck till Election Day.” Perry doesn’t take his boot off till a year after the votes have been counted and the opponent has faded into oblivion. He is actually a better campaigner than George W. Bush (Perry’s predecessor as Texas governor) was when he first entered the national scene.
2. Perry has surrounded himself with a very loyal staff. His aides believe in him, and he in them. He is involved in campaign decisions, but he delegates well and doesn't stop being loyal because a mistake might be made. This is a huge advantage in the ebb and flow of presidential campaigns.
3. His statements related to possible Texas secession actually helped him in his recent race in 2010, and will help him in a national campaign in the Republican primaries and caucuses. In an environment where Republican voters despise the federal government, anti-Washington rhetoric is music to their ears. Conversely, this talk will hurt him in a general-election race. Moderate voters in the Midwest will see it as off-putting.
4. Although he has run many times for both district and statewide office in Texas, Perry has never been fully vetted by the media. He underwent some scrutiny in his races for governor, but he has never endured the full-court press that happens in a presidential race. What the media discovers will not be as important as how he and the campaign handle the intense spotlight for the first time. Perry and some of his staffers are known to have thin skins. They will need to grow calluses if they are to succeed in the show.
5. Perry has never lost a race. While many immediately list this as a positive (and it is laudable and suggests huge talent), losing at some point in your career makes you better when the inevitable problems hit. I have learned more from my losses in life and politics than from my victories. It’s the losses that really cause self-reflection and growth. President Obama and former Presidents Bush (father and son), Clinton, Reagan, and Nixon learned enormous amounts from setbacks in their political careers, and those losses eventually helped them win the White House. We know Perry can win. The real question is: Can he suffer defeat and rise to the next battle?
It’s anyone’s guess how Perry will do if he enters the race for president. So far, he has risen in the polls and been applauded more and more by Republican activists while he stays on the sideline. So it’s hard not to wonder whether he’s better as an abstract proposition than as an actual candidate. We shall soon find out. My guess is that Perry’s trajectory will go in one of two opposing directions: He will march consistently and strongly and become the nominee, or he will crash in a spectacular manner. I don’t see any middle ground. Either way, this is going to be great theater. And interestingly, looking ahead to a possible run against President Obama, the last really close general-election race Perry had was in 1998 for lieutenant governor, and the media strategist for his Democratic opponent, John Sharp, was a familiar name--David Axelrod.
Reagan was a Dem who switched parties. ((gasp)) He was also the head of a union. (Screen Actors Guild).
Plus there are many FReepers who were Dems when they were younger and dumber about life in their 20's. I voted Dem in '88. Do you "inherently distrust" us all?
Doubtful after retweeting his spending record.
She is announcing Sept 3rd, and btw she re treated a article about how great Alaska was under her governorship, compared to other States....Perry`s Texas was far down the list.
At any rate she is running and announcing on Sept 3rd or thereabouts.
Nice...
“Learning a lot about Perry this morning.”
Yeah. Me too. AND about some of his supporters. Wow.
My “and you say...” was rhetorical, and was indeed directed at the article’s author. Sorry if I confused or annoyed you. Will try to improve my clarity next time.
“Learning a lot about Perry this morning.
So far it’s a pukefest.
Where the hell is Sarah?”
Sarah resigned, Perry’s a sitting governor. Question answered, case closed, if yer askin’ me.
Sarah was governor a little over 2 years...there is NO comparison in their records...Perry has been governor over 10 years. Forbes just issued the 8 top boom towns in the US 4 of those cities are in Texas. Alaska had NOT one of those slots....if there is to be a comparison...it needs to be apples to apples not apples to oranges..
Texas also had a number of good Democrats, however, I must add that they were Texans first.
Bob Bullock. Travis County prosecutor and crapweasel Ronnie Earle even tried a fishing expedition against him, so this is a credit to Bullock. Bullock shot down a bill banning term limits in city governments, even though he personally was opposed to term limits. Why? The local voters passed it as part of their local governance.
John Sharp, attorney general.
But those are in the past, even if the recent past. The Democratic Party has been completely taken over by moonbattery, even in Texas.
There is no doubt he is far and away better than what we have now, but that could be said of almost anyone.
A this point we are not at “the lessor of two evils” stage. We are looking for the most Conservative candidate to support. Rick Perry is not it.
Sure I would support Rick over Obummer, But that is not the point. If we elect Rick Perry; I am telling all you people who have not lived in Texas under his reign; prepair to be disappointed.
Rick Perry will do only what is good for Rick Perry. He will change like the wind once elected. His number 1 “Core Value” is: Do what is good for Rick Perry.
Yes, I did know that. But, I bet a lot of people don't.
“I especially admire RP’s recent open display of Christian passion—nothing more totally irks the Godless Left than that—though I’m not saying that is why he held the prayer meet—but it don’t hurt to irk the Left if you wanna get on the good side of the Tea Party.”
You know, it is an interesting question as to why he held the prayer meet. And, though I’m not a big Perry fan (though he’s looking better and better relatively speaking) it occurs to me that if he were operating for political gain, a big, public, in-your-face kind of prayer meet would have been one of the last things a politician would have done. He might have met with “religious leaders” in a private venue, for instance.
Anyway, it makes me wonder if it weren’t a genuine thing after all. Could be, could be...
This right here is one of my biggest problems with Perry.
I live within 30 miles of the largest border crossing plus, we have a great, partial fence (built by Congressman Duncan Hunter).....and it works. We just need more of it.
We need a multi-tiered plan that includes a strong fence, penalties to employers, and the halting of benefits to ever stand a chance of overcomming all the damage.
CA is already ruined because of illegals and what we have to pay to support them.
No problem. I just figured you didn’t know who wrote the article.
Rick Perry will do only what is good for Rick Perry. He will change like the wind once elected. His number 1 “Core Value” is: Do what is good for Rick Perry. Spot on. Gov Good Hair "Gardasil" Perry is another republican slick weasel from the same mold as Cornyn and KBH. Look elsewhere for conservatism.
Zell Miller was the only time I ever voted for a Democrat. He was as conservative as any Republican and the best Governor we ever had in GA. Great guy!!
From this article and the assembled graphs, it doesn’t appear that Perry is very fiscally conservative at all:
http://pa4palin.blogspot.com/2011/08/palins-record-on-debt-and-liabilities.html
I’ve had enough of politicians who can’t control their spending habits.
A fence will NOT keep people from crossing into the U.S.. We all are paying the price of having a 1250 Texas-Mexican international border that the federal government won't secure. And all the social programs designed to encourage people to cross the border are magnets and a wall isn't going to stop them. It's conservative ascendancy and the roll-back of LIBERAL incentives, along with stronger presence on the border (Perry's asked for drones and 3000 people for starters -- well you know how that goes over in D.C.).
And Perry has said:
“If you show up illegally, without your card or you’re here as a criminal element, I’m for throwing the book at those folks, but the issue of people who want to legally, thoughtfully and appropriately come to America to work and help us build our economy — we should quickly come up with a program and an identification card to do that.” [end excerpt] Source
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