Stock index futures fall; all eyes on payrolls

Reuters ^ | 8/5/11 | Blaise Robinson

[markomalley]

Stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street on Friday, adding to the two-week slump as investors continued to sell, spooked by the prospect of another recession.

At 0900 GMT, futures for the S&P 500 down 0.48 percent, Dow Jones futures down 0.7 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.35 percent.

Investors braced for the all-important U.S. monthly non-farm payrolls as well as the unemployment rate, due at 1230 GMT on Friday, seeking more insight on the extent of the damage in the labor market following a string of bleak macroeconomic data.

Economists see payrolls up by 85,000, according to a Reuters survey, after a tepid 18,000 gain in June. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 9.2 percent.

Japan's Nikkei average dropped 3.7 percent while European stock indexes shed 2 percent in morning trade on Friday, heading toward a weekly loss of more than 10 percent.

"The reality of a global economic contraction seems to have finally kicked in as the markets continue to plummet across Europe," ETX Capital senior trader Manoj Ladwa said.

[raybbr]

We lost two guys in our department.

[Roccus]

Economists see payrolls up by 85,000, according to a Reuters survey, after a tepid 18,000 gain in June. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 9.2 percent.

...after a month of 400(+)K/wk initial claims, 12(+)K/wk increases in continuing claims and near 0% growth? LOL!!

[calex59]

The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 9.2 percent.

This is BS. Hold steady? How the he** is it doing that when massive layoffs in most of the states took place this month. The libs lie constantly to try and prop up the Bozo.

[John W]

Thats what I was thinking. The actual numbers may be unexpected. Or, tampered with.

[TexasFreeper2009]

the government is lying to us. Do you think there is ANY chance that the numbers released today will be bad?

lol

They will release #’s that are expected or just above expected then over time (many years) will gradually revise them down quitely to what they actually were.

[_a_0_0_]

what on earth do they hope the jobs report will do for them?

[kearnyirish2]

“what on earth do they hope the jobs report will do for them?”

Persuade stupid people that Obama’s policies are working; a lot of the outright lies are targeting those of us still working, trying to draw some votes from those that they hope don’t realize how dire the situation is.

[Roccus]

IMO, the embargo on the numbers will be (quietly) broken and there will be a wave of front running.
Watch the futures between 7:30 and 8:30 EDT and see which way they run.

[SkyPilot]

The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 9.2 percent.

Cooked books: the real unemployment number is about 22%.

[SkyPilot]

what on earth do they hope the jobs report will do for them?

I was thinking the same thing.

I watched liberal on MSNBC get very nervous yesterday while taking a phone call from an investor. He spilled the beans as to one reason why markets all over the world are in a panic: our our Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently got caught lying about growth for the past 3 years, and about inflation. Real economic growth was lower by 2 to 2.5% LESS than what they reported!

This is a scandal, one that the Lame-stream Media has so far been successful in suppressing.

The U.S. propaganda-machine tells us that the “Great Recession” ended in March 2009, while the BLS has been reporting monthly “job gains” in nearly every report since that time. As a matter of simple arithmetic, if the U.S. economy began adding jobs in the Spring of 2009 (and the job losses had supposedly eased in the months immediately prior to that), then when we looked at the total number of employed workers in the U.S. (as calculated by the same BLS) we should have seen the year-over-year numbers turn positive no later than the end of 2009. This is not what the BLS’ own data indicates. In its own “Comparison of All Employees” (seasonally adjusted) we see that December of 2009 marked the absolute bottom for total employment in the U.S. In other words, during the first eight months of “job creation” during this supposed “economic recovery” the U.S. economy lost more jobs on a net basis.............Thus, as we near the mid-point of 2011, here is the reality of the U.S. economy – minus the lies of the BLS. At best, since the U.S. “Great Recession” supposedly ended the U.S. economy has added roughly 1 million new jobs: less than one new job for every eight lost-jobs which have (officially) been recorded since the U.S. economy crashed.

[tobyhill]

I think the “experts” are low-balling the numbers. My guess is 110,000 (”better than expected”) but the unemployment rate rises to 9.3%.

[Soul of the South]

“This is BS. Hold steady? How the he** is it doing that when massive layoffs in most of the states took place this month. The libs lie constantly to try and prop up the Bozo.”

The statistics are manipulated every month to keep the unemployment rate under 10%. This is done by reducing the quantity of people “looking for work” as well as the assumption about the size of the workforce. People who are not looking for work are not considered “unemployed”.

I also understand they remove you from the “unemployed” if you are denied unemployment insurance or if your unemployment benefits run out. Many males in the inner city who are hanging out on the corner and not actively looking for work are not considered “unemployed” by the government. Certainly the welfare queens sitting back and collecting government assistance are not counted as unemployed. The government also does’t count the “discouraged” as unemployed. These are defined as people who are not “actively” seeking employment because they’ve been worn down from months of rejection.

From the perspective of those of us in the private sector, we know the unemployment rate is well over 10%. The real rate is likely at depression levels (over 20%). If we had a robust economy, and the government safety net wasn’t so liberal in dispensing benefits, the size of the labor force would be much higher.

Another observation. Almost every government statistic pertaining to economic health is revised a month or two later in a direction that shows further deterioration.

The plain truth - the government lies. It isn’t just Obama. We had the same thing under Bush.

[tomkat]

Economists see payrolls up by 85,000, according to a Reuters survey

By mid-week:  .. we unexpectedly reported 'up' instead of 'down' ..

Of course, that's if a shred of conscience could be amalgamated at Reuters .. otherwise *crickets*

[bert]

-——as investors continued to sell-——

every share sold was bought

[John W]

We didn’t have The Obama Depression under Bush.

[surfer]

Of course they will announce an inflated number today to try to stop this nonsense and then announce an adjustment downward in a couple of weeks...

It is amazing just how badly these clowns in DC hate the truth.

[GatorGirl]

Zero’s government lies. The economy under Pres. Bush was remarkably better, particularly when you factor in the effect of 9/11. Sure it wasn’t perfect but nothing like this was going on. In fact if anything the reporting was designed to suppress good news and lament “high” unemployment when it got over 5%.

They are contorting themselves into pretzels to keep that unemployment rate under the magic number of 10%. The Pravda-esque media we have is completely culpable as is Zero’s bunch.

[catfish1957]

Everybody is onto this government version of a slick shell game. I have read in several places if the rate was calculated like it used to to be it would be in the neigborhood of 22 or 23%.

Futures are down 0.48%, that's a little better than I thought would happen (i.e 50 point drop at the Bell) So as far as the employment number, watch it stay the same based on Obama's magic math.

[ladyvet]

Newmont mining here in Elko Nevada is actively seeking mine truck drivers and they will train. The pay and bennies are decent. Just thought I would throw that out there for anyone looking for work.