1.5 years left for a war-averse US president about to hit major issues at home.
Expect China to take Taiwan soon - like within weeks.
That would be sad. Brave little country only 99 miles from Red China. Most of the world would not raise an eyebrow, they already recognize Taiwan as part of China.... oh wait, so does the US
I'll take that bet, what will you wager?
Highly unlikely, IMO. It's just the kind of thing to tip the world economy into a tailspin. The current Chinese leadership would be in very deep trouble if their economy collapsed.
The rest of the world would only be too happy to have a scapegoat.
>1.5 years left for a war-averse US president about to hit major issues at home.
Expect China to take Taiwan soon - like within weeks.<
They won’t. The oil-rich Spratly Isles means more to them but the smaller ASEAN nations ganged up on China, with a little nudge from the US, and the Chicoms couldn’t make a move because it made them look like idiots in the Philippine media. This all happened within the last week.
The Chicoms are just pissed they were not able to flex their muscles on the Spratly’s , that’s why they did this with Taiwan. It’s nice when you have Filipino in laws who tell these stuff...
The ChiComs might be nice and wait until just before Thanksgiving or Christmas to take Taiwan, so 0bama can brush it off and have a big meal with the family in front of the cameras while it all goes down. You know 0bama doesn’t have the gonads to do squat about it.
I don’t know about the timing, but it’s impossible to see their enormous purchase of our debt as anything but an insurance policy against U.S. retaliation.
Invading Taiwan cuts out this one big trading partner and source of capital and gives the chicoms nothing in return
They will just wait -- remember the Chinese think in terms of centuries. They think that US power is going to wane further. As time passes and the chicoms become more a capitalist oligarchy (which arguably they already are), there will be less separating the two chinas and then they will plan to reunite peacefully.
Taiwan's only purpose is for China to sabre-rattle every now and then
In more concrete terms China is interested in siberia and central asia for energy.
The Chinese have enough problems as it is. Adding Taiwan to the list at this point doesn’t make a lot of sense.
If they try to take it, they will end up destroying it. It’s that simple.
If they do destroy it, there’s quite a bit of strategic good that comes from that of course, since a great deal of our electronics now comes from Taiwan.
They will have to deal with the hit to trade that would come from such a thing, and they are truly living in a ‘bicycle economy’ - one that is predicated on growth to outweigh the fact that they have massive debt, corruption issues, loads of unsold housing, and an increasingly restive middle class.
I would think they’ll coordinate whatever attack they are planning with the Russians, in any event.
You wouldn’t go after Taiwan unless you had a plan for ensuring that the US wouldn’t just go full scale on you.
Moscow’s not going to make the Afghanistan mistake twice. The objective was Saudi Arabia through Afghanistan. They got stuck in Afghanistan. The key to Afghanistan is the resolve to ‘pass through it’, not to occupy or try to change it. Trying to make rehab Afghanistan is like trying to get a horse to deal cards. It’s possible, but what’s the point?
Nobody seems cold-blooded enough to pull off an old-fashioned land war, or a tactical nuclear war either.
In the end, you have to be willing to enslave, eradicate, or convincingly win the peace. China and Russia together can’t do that. Russia has enough on its plate with the Ukraine, and with Georgia.
Russia and China, to win, have to be completely self sufficient in terms of both food and fuel. China’s going to become a net importer of wheat for the first time this year. Russia always has been an net wheat importer, even if it does have enough oil (though not enough refineries).
As stupid as this administration is, and despite the fact that we’d probably ALLOW such an invasion, the time to have struck would have been about 18 months ago, when there was still time in Obama’s term to really exploit his inexperience.
Kruschev was right to exploit Kennedy, and he got those missiles removed from Turkey. Kennedy was smart enough to stand up to Kruschev and commit the US to a global nuclear war should they decide to allow those missiles in Cuba.
Obama’s not half the man Kennedy was, and if the Chinese had taken Taiwan 18 months ago, the press would have helped Obama spin it into ‘well, we aren’t in that business anymore, anyway.’
Taking Taiwan now? Could happen, but why would you do it when it wouldn’t lead to the complete defeat of the United States?
Then again, insanity doesn’t need a reason, does it?