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Posted on 07/11/2011 7:35:40 AM PDT by Hojczyk
So says Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. Why should we believe him? For one thing, Achuthan was one of the few who predicted a global industrial slowdown near the beginning of the second quarter. For another … er, isn’t it rather obvious by now?
And actually, the news gets worse from there:
With so much riding on – and priced into – an economic and earnings rebound in the second-half of the year, Achutan not only pours water on that, but ups the ante by saying he cannot rule out slumping into another recession in 2012. “You have a 4/10ths rise in the unemployment rate over the last 3 months. That doesn’t happen in an economy that is reviving or firming or gaining steam,” he explains.
Speaking of red numbers, the Christian Science Monitor’s Stefan Karlsson explains why Friday’s horrid jobs report is actually worse than it looks:
First of all, previous increases in payroll survey employment were revised down.
Secondly, average weekly earnings fell 0.3% as hourly earnings were flat and the average work week fell 0.1 hours. However, at the same time earnings for May was upwardly revised by 0.1%.
And thirdly, the other survey, the household survey, showed a decrease in employment by 445,000. As a result, the entire increase in the employment to population ratio since the cyclical low of 58.2% has been wiped out. The 0.9 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate since then is thus entirely the result of [people] dropping out of the work force, discouraged by the shortage of jobs.
Consumer economies don’t provide rebounds when people are leaving the workforce. We are not going to see a sudden growth period in 2011, and we’re likely to slide back into recession earlier than most people think.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
so to paraphrase the late gil scott heron, “the recovery will not be televised?”
IOW, going around in circles, and always turning left.
Ka-ching - well put!
Rebound “not happening” in 2011.
Nor in 2012, or 2013.
Obama Pelosi Geithner’s masterpiece won’t unravel quickly.
This makes me think that ultra-low interest rates are here for the foreseeable future. Anyone think otherwise?
Gesundheit!
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