Yilong UAV
Posted on 07/08/2011 5:56:14 AM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
Chinese firms developing armed drones; eyes Pakistan for sales
WASHINGTON: China has ramped up its research in drone technology and is in the process of building armed, jet-propelled unmanned planes, which it plans to sell to countries like Pakistan.
Though much of this work remains secret, the large number of drones at recent exhibitions underlines not only China's determination to catch up in that sector -- by building equivalents to the leading US combat and surveillance models, the Predator and the Global Hawk -- but also that its desire to sell this technology abroad, a media report has said.
"No country has ramped up its research in recent years faster than China. It displayed a drone model for the first time at the Zhuhai air show five years ago, but now every major manufacturer for the Chinese military has a research center devoted to drones," the Washington Post daily recently said quoting Chinese analysts.
Not only the Chinese are trying to make state of the art armed drones, they are also eyeing the international market.
"The United States doesn't export many attack drones, so we're taking advantage of that hole in the market," said Zhang Qiaoliang , a representative of the Chengdu Aircraft Design and Research Institute, which manufactures many of the most advanced military aircraft for the People's Liberation Army.
"The main reason is the amazing demand in the market for drones after 9/11."
According to the daily, Pakistan has said it plans to obtain armed drones from China, which has already sold the nation one for surveillance.
As per Aviation Industry Corp of China, it has begun offering international customers a combat and surveillance drone comparable to the Predator called the Yilong, or "pterodactyl" in English.
Zhang, of the Chengdu Aircraft Design and Research Institute, said the company anticipates sales in Pakistan, the Middle East and Africa.
However, he and others displaying drones at a recent Beijing anti-terrorism convention played down the threat of increasing Chinese drone technology, the daily said.
"I don't think China's drone technology has reached the world's first-class level," said Wu Zilei, from the China Shipbuilding Industry Corp, echoing an almost constant refrain.
"The reconnaissance drones are okay, but the attack drones are still years behind the United States".
However, the daily quoted Richard Fisher , a senior fellow at the Washington-based International Assessment and Strategy Center, who said such statements are routine and intended to deflect concern about the nation's expanding military ambitions.
"The Chinese are catching up quickly. This is something we know for sure," Fisher said. "We should not take comfort in some perceived lags in sensors or satellites capabilities. Those are just a matter of time."
Yilong UAV
YOUR TRADE DOLLARS AT WORK!!!!!!!!!
Unmanned drones only work if you have total air supremacy. Without that, they will simply be target practice for F-15’s
The Chinese gave the Pakis their nukes as well
I also suspect we can jam them or maybe hijack control of them.
Thus, once you add an advanced IADS with advanced SAMs (that are believed to make airspace inhospitable to legacy fighters like the F-15 and F-/A-18), with over a thousand aircraft of various vintage ranging from 4.5 gen to 3rd gen (all requiring a missile), and IRBMs that make near air-basing (land or aircraft carrier) a viable risk (meaning that aircraft that can survive the Chinese IADS/SAM, like the F-22 Raptor, would have to fly from a very long distance away ...putting refueling aircraft at risk even in a situation where Raptors have a 100:0 exchange ratio) ....put all of that together and China does have air superiority over the Taiwan Strait. Add to that the fact that every 5 years the technical capability of the Chinese armed forces goes up. Already they have guided-missile destroyers that have AEGIS-esque phased radars, and they are working on three different stealth-fighter concepts (the first, the two J-20 concepts was revealed earlier in the year). In another 5 years they will have more phased-radar destroyers, and it is possible that one or more of the 5th generation concepts will have started initial production. Another 5 years after that the Taiwan issue will be totally moot.
I actually believe that currently it is already moot ...that no US president, Democrat or Republican, would commit boots in the ground in China because of Taiwan (or even any action similar to what Clinton did when he sent a carrier group to make the Chinese back down). Is there a treaty? Yes. Will America go to the defence of Taiwan against China? I would not bet two matinee movie tickets, no popcorn, and a shared slurpy on that! I doubt it would happen. Dem or Repub. Taiwan's defence totally depends on Taipei getting its act together and doing the needful. It will not have any F-22s or F-15s sanitizing the airspace over the Strait, because the US will not be involved. Obviously Taipei cannot do much to overcome Beijing's overwhelming advantages, but it can do enough to ensure that Beijing thinks long and hard before it commits hard assets towards a Taiwanese invasion. An analogy I have used before is a hive of bees against a bear ...sure the bear can still win, but that 'win' will come at a painful cost (maybe so painful that the bear, even with its innate and overwhelming advantages, decides to try salmon instead of honey).
However, currently, if air superiority is regarded as the ability to function over a particular airspace unimpeded, China already has air supremacy over Chinese airspace that extends to the Taiwan Strait. Sure, B-2s and F-22s can operate largely unimpeded, but of those two airframes the F-22 wouldn't make it back (unless it has perpetual fuel tanks), and there are not that many B-2s around.
Add tax dollars too-the Pakis have been getting economic and military aid since September 11.
And that salmon is, inviting Taiwanese businesses to invest and expand their operations into China. Over the course of time, Taiwan will simply become part of China through economic integration. Once China becomes a democracy, Taiwan simply becomes a provincial voting block. And smaller than the average Chinese province at that.
How do we defend against a drone that travels ten feet above the waves and climbs to 100 feet when it is a quarter mile from shore?
I doubt they will be target practice for F-15s. With expanding Chinese military budget and massive production capacity they could very easily produce a large number of inexpensive drones to overwhelm the airdefense of almost any country. They lose nothing even if several dozens of drones are taken down. The USAF even if more technologically advanced would not be able to contain the sheer numbers while operating across the pacific ocean, far away from homeland. While the drones take on the ground targets the manned fighter in the Chinese inventory can be deployed to take on air superiority roles in far greater numbers. Chinese growth and modernization can very fast change the dynamics of air warfare over the region.
That is one thing that will never happen. Chinese communist leaders are in no mood to relinquish power.
Taiwan will not integrate with China as long as there is a strong US economic and political counter influence over Taiwan. China's best hopes are that US influence over Taiwan significantly diminishes so they can carry out a bloodless takeover of Taiwan. For now it seems like China is getting more and more edgy against Vietnam, Japan, Philippines and India. That's could set things off in a different direction for China.
Things are changing in China, though. Powers of the central government over the daily lives of people are no where near what they once were. Keep in mind, only 35 years ago, everyone had to wear the Mao uniform. Today, many in the cities wear the latest fashions. And I feel things will continue to change until China becomes a full fledge democracy.
Taiwan will not integrate with China as long as there is a strong US economic and political counter influence over Taiwan.
Economic is already underway. And the political resistance is much less than before. Many, in Taiwan, have resigned to the fact that it will be part of China someday.
China's best hopes are that US influence over Taiwan significantly diminishes so they can carry out a bloodless takeover of Taiwan.
Well....that is happening. US influence is diminishing in Taiwan.
For now it seems like China is getting more and more edgy against Vietnam, Japan, Philippines and India. That's could set things off in a different direction for China.
Actually, its the other way around, those countries are getting edgy towards China. But China is patient and will bide her time :)
Thats is not a huge improvement that your government now allows you to wear the latest fashion. In most countries, (forget democracies) even in totalitarian dictatorships the government doesn't not even care about what people wear. China is nowhere near a being a fledgling democracy let alone being full fledged democracy.
“Many, in Taiwan, have resigned to the fact that it will be part of China someday.”
“Resigned” doesn't mean will-full acceptance.
“US influence is diminishing in Taiwan.”
Don't count your chicken already.
China changing her attire doesn't mean she is changing her attitude. China is still hegemonistic and belligerent as she ever was. As a Chicom agent you post are indicative of how much China still years for territorial expansion beyond her current boundaries. All of China's neighbors can see what China is upto. China may bide her time but one thing is for sure, China intentions are not peaceful. That is quite clear for all of China's neighbors to see.
Its still an improvement. But that was one example. And I could list many more. There was a time when people couldn't even leave the country, now, they can and the government isn't going to stop them. And they are free to choose where they work, live, etc. They can even criticize their government (and have quite a bit recently).
“Resigned” doesn't mean will-full acceptance.
About 1/3 of Taiwan already want re-unification. The other 2/3 do not. So, there is a large segment of the country that want to be part of China. The other 2/3 will slowly accept re-unification. Especially, when, many of the corporations employ, overwhelmingly, more people in China than in Taiwan. Taiwanese business assets increasingly include China. Foxconn is such an example, where they are Taiwanese, but so much is in China, they are essentially a Chinese company.
China changing her attire doesn't mean she is changing her attitude. China is still hegemonistic and belligerent as she ever was. As a Chicom agent you post are indicative of how much China still years for territorial expansion beyond her current boundaries. All of China's neighbors can see what China is upto. China may bide her time but one thing is for sure, China intentions are not peaceful. That is quite clear for all of China's neighbors to see.
Well...I'm not a "Chicom" agent. And when I said "bide her time", I wasn't implying territorial expansion by force. But through touch negotiation. China will be patient and will use everything in her arsenal to stake her claim. But it won't be through force. And it will be through her increasing economic strength coupled with political wrangling.
Likely, it will be the other countries (such as Vietnam) that use force. And they know they can find some sympathy in the US because of people like yourselves. Really, that is what is happening over there and some attitudes in the US. I feel there is a certain segment of the US population (many like yourselves on the FR), that are looking for an excuse to stir instability in the region. This stability is what allows China to grow in strenth. And I feel there are many like yourselves who would like very much to see the political and economic stability disturbed.
Dlone ping.
The problem as I see it is, thirty minutes later you’re going to want another drone.
Thanks sukhoi-30mki.
You can list as many as you want but it would all be besides the point as long as you don't realize the difference between cosmetic changes and real move towards democracy. Chinese communist government is at the moment hedging its bets on the fact that limited freedom, some token changes that give out the appearance of freedom coupled with economic benefit will keep the people happy and lessen the demand for actual freedom and democracy. Chinese communist propaganda has successfully sold the idea that there will be an gradual transition toward democracy and freedom and most people like you seem to buy that propaganda wholesale. Fact is gradual peaceful transition towards democracy is plain nonsense. Democracy is always a risky business. There is never anything called “smooth transition”. Chinese government realizes that. You see.... democracy is not all about wearing latest clothing, freedom of movement and other goodies. Democracy brings out a lot of unsavory dirt from under the carpet that a communist government keeps hidden and suppressed. In a democracy you will have to give political space to dissenters, secessionists and extremely opposing view points. In a democracy people don't “resign” to a fate dictated to them by the government but they grow more vocal, more assertive and there is far heavier pressure for self-determination. There is already plenty of dissension in Tibet, Uighuristan, inner Mongolia not to mention Taiwan which is not even part of China. This is one of the bad things about democracy. Young democracies are chaotic, difficult to manage, violent and can easily go out of control. Now you see what the Chinese government is afraid of? Currently economic development has tempered down the demand for freedom but the dinosaur will come back. The fact that you seem to think strong trade and economic goodies can actually buy off people's allegiance is classic chicom indoctrination. It rarely ever happens that way.
If Taiwan wanted to join China, they would have long done so for reasons other then economic benefits which they already enjoy more then the average Chinese.
” I wasn’t implying territorial expansion by force. But through touch negotiation.”
That statement doesn’t quite fit in given China’s military built up. Fact is you still have the intent of territorial expansion. You can claim endlessly that it wont be through force but as long as you have the intention of territorial expansion and the military means to achieve it, who is to say that China’s actions will strictly be peaceful. China’s words don’t match her actions.
“Likely, it will be the other countries (such as Vietnam) that use force. And they know they can find some sympathy in the US because of people like yourselves.”
At the moment there are 6 countries that are directly threatened by China’s belligerence and a few other countries that are not quite comfortable about China’s rise but want to play it safe. They all cannot be wrong in their assessment of Chinese intentions and actions. It is very inconceivable that a country like Vietnam would start an unprovoked war with China because they enjoy political sympathy from some people on an internet forum.
Vietnam is a dangerous and conniving nation we realize this.
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