Posted on 06/16/2011 2:20:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Rasmussen released the second part of its GOP primary polling this morning, this time concerning those potential candidates not in the race. The survey of likely Republican primary voters does not indicate a massive desire for more candidates to jump into the race, but support for bids by Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani exceeds opposition. That isn’t true for Sarah Palin:
A plurality of Republican primary voters think it would be good for Texas Governor Rick Perry to jump into the party’s presidential race and bad for the party if former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin joined the field. They are evenly divided about former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 36% of Likely GOP Primary Voters think it would be good for Republicans if Palin enters the race, but 45% believe it would be bad for the party. Just 11% say it would have no impact. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Thirty-six percent (36%) also feel it would be good for the GOP if Perry enters the race. Only 21% say it would be bad for the party, while 26% think it would have no impact. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.
As for Giuliani, best known for his leadership in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, 38% of likely primary voters believe it would be good for their party if he joins the presidential race. Nearly as many (35%), however, see his candidacy as bad for the GOP. Nineteen percent (19%) say it would have no impact.
Earlier, commenters on the first Rasmussen release wondered why the pollster didn’t include potential candidates in the survey, and this answers the question. None of the three got above 36% in demand for a run. Given the lack of any other potential candidates, this appears to bolster the argument that likely primary voters see the current field as sufficient.
The internals don’t look good for Palin in this instance. In almost all demographics, opposition to a primary bid outstrips support. Among men, it’s a 42/42 tie, but among women, it’s a double-digit deficit at 28/49. Palin trails in every age demographic and loses a majority among 40-49YOs, 34/51; she also loses a majority among independents planning to vote in the GOP primaries, 34/53. Black voters (53/26), those unsure of their ideology (70/27), and Tea Party members (49/33) support the idea of a Palin candidacy. Evangelicals are the only religious denomination to support a Palin run, but at a surprisingly low 44/38 mark. Palin also picks up support from lower-income levels below $40K and the $60-75K demo, but loses the other income demos.
The numbers for Perry and Giuliani aren’t bad, but they’re not “draft”-level figures, either. A Perry run would be seen positively across the board, but not terribly enthusiastically. He actually gets a majority of Tea Party voters (53/17), scoring better among them than Palin, and a majority among black voters, as does Giuliani, who also gets a majority of 30-39YOs. Otherwise, support for any of the three is rather tepid, at least at this point.
One interesting point: Black voters are enthusiastic about all three potential bids, by a majority in each case. They don’t appear to be satisfied with the current field.
Cherry pickin to get statistics toward a predetermined % ain’t honest.
I guess if you make it through two hours without a gaffe , it’s considered a big success, whether you actually say anything of substance or not.
I tnink that in the end, events will determine who gets the nomination. Lincoln was a dark house for sure in 1859.
Of course this is absurd on its face.
The only real reason someone would want someone to stay out is if they thought they could win. And someone wins by typically getting a plurality of the votes.
So this is saying something that a plurality of those polled think Palin should stay out because they fear that a plurality of those voting would vote her in?
Makes no sense to me. Not that I would expect it to.
Because if she declares, she has to give up the book profits, and all that “stuff” she has suddenly gained in the last year or so.
I think she is still planning on running for the Senate in Arizona. But the same rules may apply so time will tell.
RE: Scott Rassmussen is horse crap? Interesting....
He is crap now because the poll results aren’t favorable to what a lot of people want.
He’ll be back in favor when/if the poll swings the other way.
I like Palin, and I would vote for her in a heartbeat, but the poll results sound about right to me. I know a lot of Republicans more conservative than myself who don’t care for Palin.
LLS
I’m going to vote for Palin, regardless of the garbage that’s shoveled her way.
I would sooner see our country burn to the ground than vote for an establishment candidate or any candidate picked/pushed by the enemy.
Considering what Obama and the democrats have so quickly done to our country, it won’t take all that long for it to reach the ground.
None of the seven people on that stage stood out from the others. Romney is the front runner, but so was Seward as late as the Convention in 1860.
RE: Because if she declares, she has to give up the book profits, and all that “stuff” she has suddenly gained in the last year or so.
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Well, Mike Huckabee gave up on running I believe for precisely that reason. Why accept a $400,000 job with lots of pressure (causing premature gray hairs) when you can relax with a $700,000 job as pundit and host of your own show at FOX?
Ditto!
LLS
Who are they polling?
BTW, did you know Kerry (Bachmann) was (fostered) in (23)Vietnam (children)?
Why don’t you go visit your oil buddies in prison?
Likes and dislikes are important only in the early going. How many people liked McCain in June of 2007? IAC, I think the test for Plain would be how she would farewere she get on the stage with the seven.
Right, and go home every night and live in private without the headaches of solving this mess we are in on top of it.
That would be the smart thing to do.
If Palin doesn't run, she will lose most, if not all interest in others having her speak.
T-shirt sales? Is Palin selling T-shirts, or is it others, who make shirts, not to mention caps, pins, stickers, etc. ?
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